Trade Winds and the Rumour Mill Picking Up
As the postseason winds down and the NHL offseason draws nearer, the NHL’s rumour will inevitably kickstart into high gear.
People around the game are starting to spitball prospective trade ideas and one particular suggestion stood out this past week.
Over at The Athletic, Winnipeg’s excellent Murat Ates suggested that the Jets should consider moving Nikolaj Ehlers for Jakob Chychrun.
From Ates:
“Ehlers has spent the past several years delivering first-line results with second-line minutes. He’s brought chaos alongside even strength excellence to his top line promotions, adding an element of irksome decisions with the puck to a formula whose end result has been elite regular season results. Three coaching staffs have watched him dramatically outscore his opponents alongside Mark Scheifele without ever keeping him in that role. Ehlers led the Jets in five-on-five points per minute (again) in 2023-24 and has led all Jets in points per minute of ice time over the duration of his current contract. Last season, the Jets played him less often than third-line right winger Mason Appleton.”
The rationale for the move is straightforward. The 28-year-old Ehlers is in the last year of his seven-year contract carrying a $6.0 million average annual value. Ehlers produced 25 goals and 61 points in 82 games for the Jets while providing the characteristically exemplary underlying metrics outlined by Hockeyviz.
When Ehlers is on the ice, he’s a responsible player on both sides of the puck who drives the play and helps his teammates sustain offence in the opposition’s end.
Unfortunately for him, his playoff production has become a point of emphasis. In 37 career postseason games, Ehlers has only manufactured four goals and 14 points of offence.
The Senators could use a player of Ehler’s calibre to bolster their secondary scoring. Behind Brady Tkachuk, Mathieu Joseph was the second-most used left winger. Although Joseph is a valuable player, he would be best served playing a depth role.
The issue for the Senators is two-fold: Ehlers is not cheap and the term remaining on his contract is prohibitive.
One of the recurring problems in recent Senators history has been a tendency to give up significant future value to acquire talent who did not afford the Senators a ton of team control. Whether it was trading Mika Zibanejad and a second-round pick for Derick Brassard or bringing in players Alex DeBrincat and the aforementioned Chychrun, the organization has struggled to create value in the mid to long-term with these moves.
As enticing as it would be to acquire Ehlers, the Senators would be taking on an additional $1.4 million in payroll this season. This is a tough pill to swallow before even considering that the Senators would need to extend Ehlers at what would likely be a more expensive rate — assuming the player would even be comfortable signing a long-term extension to play in Ottawa.
Although Ehlers is a good player and someone the Senators could use, acquiring a player nearing his 30’s who will require an expensive extension may not be the most enticing move right now. And, for as good as Ehlers has been, the fact that he only averaged 15:52 of ice time is a genuine concern. Why isn’t a player who produces those levels of offence and play-driving effects playing more? And, why is he significantly less effective in the postseason?
For the Senators to consider moving Chychrun, they will want quality assets that carry years of team control.
As I mentioned on Twitter yesterday, some organizations are already jumping into the fray. Typically the NHL Draft represents a significant event for trade activity, but Tampa Bay started things yesterday afternoon. The Lightning acquired Ryan McDonagh and a fourth-round pick for a second and seventh-rounder.
Teams are starting to clear the decks positioning themselves for bigger moves this summer. After moving the 34-year-old McDonagh, it leaves a sizable hole on their left side. According to CapFriendly, the Predators only have four of their NHL defencemen under contract through next season. They currently have Roman Josi and Jeremy Lauzon manning the left side, but will need someone to replace the 21:47 of average ice time McDonagh played last season.
Trading an aging McDonagh and his $6.75 million cap hit freed up some cap space and returned the Predators some valuable draft capital. Draft capital that they can use or trade to bolster their roster with younger and better talent.
The Predators are armed with $26 million in cap space and possess three first-round picks and five second-round picks across the next two drafts. They are well-positioned to get creative with their roster and make splashy moves. Already they have been linked to Mitch Marner’s availability, but they will need someone to play that left side.
Perhaps they could be interested in Chychrun, but on a recent '32 Thoughts Podcast’, Elliotte Friedman spitballed on whether the McDonagh trade could be a precursor for a run at Nikita Zadorov in free agency.
Garrioch Dropping a Bunch of News
In Bruce Garrioch’s latest in the Ottawa Sun, he outlined that the Senators tried to move goaltender Joonas Korpisalo at the trade deadline to no avail. His albatross of a contract has four years and $16 million remaining.
For reasons I do not understand, Garrioch believes that a buyout is a non-starter for Korpisalo, but I fail to see why a $1.3 million cap hit across each of the next eight seasons is too prohibitive. If anything, it represents a modest amount of money in an escalating cap world. Hell, I have never heard Garrioch complain about the organization pissing away $1.1 million per year on Travis Hamonic’s current two-year deal.
Perhaps most importantly, if the Senators were to buy Korpisalo out, his cap hit for the 2024-25 season would be only $333,333. With the cap savings of $3.6 million, the Senators could easily go into the market and look for a suitable replacement.
Korpisalo’s contract is a sunk cost. How the money is allocated or when he gets it doesn't matter. The Senators can buy Korpisalo out to improve the roster in the short and medium term. Pull the trigger.
Of course, it is easy for me to encourage a buyout. It is not my money. If Andlauer is concerned about the optics or the money involved, he should have put handcuffs on then-general manager Pierre Dorion and prohibited him from signing multi-year deals.
Other News and Notes:
From that same Garrioch piece, he mentioned that the Senators are far apart in negotiations with Shane Pinto. He is reportedly asking for $5 million in salary on a lengthy extension. Garrioch also mentioned that the Senators may kick tires on goaltender Linus Ullmark after inquiring about his availability at the trade deadline. Travis Hamonic may be bought out.
Thomas Chabot had surgery last week to repair some tendons in his wrist. His recovery is expected to be two to three months long allowing him to be ready for training camp in the fall.