Thoughts in Bold: GM Steve Staios' end of the season media availability

General Manager Steve Staios met with the assembled media at the Canadian Tire Centre this morning where he spoke on several issues related to the Senators’ 2023-24 season.

Staios’ full availability can be found on the TSN 1200 website, but I have transcribed its entirety below. Following each of the general manager’s reflections, I have posted thoughts of my own which are highlighted in bold.

Enjoy.

On whether he fulfilled his priority of instilling confidence and stability in the group…

“I feel confident that we were able to establish some of that and it was on the work and backs of Jacques Martin and the coaching staff. I feel like he made a significant impact. I think when you’re evaluating coaches, you probably look at the win/loss record first. But, I think if you watched our games and how we played under Jacques… and how we grew as a team, I think that he had a significant impact. We talked about stability but also professionalism, detail, and the approach to the game. So, I want to thank Jacques again for that. But, as far as looking for that stability and that next layer for us to continue to build this program on, I do feel good about that.”

I’ll look at the win/loss records first.

In 26 games, D.J. Smith had the Senators off to an 11-15-0 start for a points percentage of .423.

Under Jacques Martin, the Senators put together a 26-26-4 record.

Taken as a whole, the majority of the underlying numbers are pretty similar:

Under D.J. Smith:

• 49.23 CF%, 58.54 CF/60, 60.38 CA/60

• 50.04 SF%, 30.24 SF/60, 30.19 SA/60

• 49.98 xGF%, 2.49 xGF/60, 2.64 xGA/60

Under Martin:

• 50.99 CF%, 62.15 CF/60, 59.73 CA/60

• 50.74 SF%, 29.73 SF/60, 28.87 SA/60

• 49.59 xGF%, 2.59 xGF/60, 2.63 xGA/60

Whereas Smith had five seasons to impart his vision of how he wanted the Senators to play, Martin arrived on a mission to convince this young core that they would never be able to win in this league playing the way that they were.

The transition was not particularly smooth off the hop. In the team’s first 11 games under Martin (December 18th through January 17th), the Senators compiled a 3-8-1 record with horrendous five-on-five shot and goal numbers. The Senators generated 47.51 percent of the total shots (CF%), 45.63 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 43.86 percent of the total goals (GF%) and 43.78 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).

After that, there was a clear adjustment and improvement in the team’s structure. They pressured pucks better in the offensive and neutral zones helping to create more turnovers and generate more offensive zone time.

It was not just a qualitative observation, the numbers speak for themselves.

In their last 45 games, the Senators tallied 51.89 percent of the total shots (CF%), 52.15 percent of the total shots (SF%) and 51.13 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). The Senators went 23-18-4 during this stretch despite only scoring 43.33 percent of the goals. Across an 82-game slate, this play would project to 91 points. If not for the league’s third-lowest shooting percentage (7.22 Sh%) and save percentage (89.72 Sv%) during this stretch, their goals for percentage and record would have been markedly better.

On the felt sense of frustration from the players during the exit interviews yesterday…

“I think it was that. I really do believe that we have an incredibly well-intended group of players. I do believe that they care. I believe that they need to continue… a lot of our discussion was on how they continue to grow not only as a player, but as a teammate and as a leader for all of our players. So, the frustration, I think, comes from and I’ve mentioned this before on the expectations. When we talk about expectations, my expectations are what I was seeing a little bit more of at the end of the season – as far as team play, details, habits… The only way we can get to the expectations that we have for ourselves is by looking after that. So, I think the word frustration comes from not being able to meet expectations, but I think we need to take it back a little bit to start to build towards those expectations.”

The players put forth a solid message during their media availabilities yesterday. Thomas Chabot had an interesting quote about putting the right coach in place and hiring someone to hold the players accountable. As one reader noted, this may have been an indirect shot at D.J. Smith. Regardless, the team must continue to develop a strong two-way game that relies on defensive responsibilities, but the players owe it to each other to hold themselves accountable. There is also an onus on the leadership of this group to encourage buy-in and ensure that everyone is playing on the right side of the puck.

On the shortcomings this season and whether he feels it is a consistency issue or a personnel one…

“I would say that it was a little bit of both. Anytime you go through a situation like this and I’ve been on the job for three and a half months, you try and have an impact on certain areas as much as you can. But, it was a very important year for evaluation and how we’re going to approach moving forward. I just think that we want to continue to grow from within. I think there’s massive potential for internal growth with this group the way that it is. Saying that, there are areas that need to be addressed and that’s my job.”

A theme of the Andlauer/Staios era has been their willingness to remind fans that this is their first season here, which can ring a little hollow for fans because of everything they have had to endure these past seven years.

It is frustrating watching another lost season swirl the drain without any considerable personnel casualties to account for the lack of success. I believe that Andlauer and Staios recognize this, but I also hope that fans recognize the importance of what Staios said in his answer.

This was a “very important year for evaluation” because management must accurately gauge the personnel, staff, and prospects without making significant mistakes. The lack of player activity may have frustrated fans, but these evaluations will be paramount to making more informed decisions in the future. Pierre Dorion’s moves shortchanged the Senators’ rebuild and complicated the situation that Staios inherited, making it imperative that Staios does not compound those problems with mistakes of his own.

On how much change fans can expect over the course of the summer…

“I don’t know how to really quantify it. I mean, there’s going to be change inevitably. There always is. We’ll look at every opportunity. If we’re going to make changes, they have to be with the right intentions to bring in the right people for the right positions. And, not just with the team. We’re working towards building a culture here and that doesn’t start and stop with the players. That has got to run right through the organization.”

It will be a big summer for the organization in terms of roster management, but I like what Staios had to say about the permeation of culture throughout the organization. His phrasing made it sound like we can expect more change and hopefully, additions to beef up the hockey operations department.

On whether he had open conversations with his impending free agents on whether they would or would not be returning…

“No. No, we had open and candid conversations with our players and I won’t get into that. But, certainly I think yesterday was not the time for that.”

This is a marked departure from the past. Pierre Dorion was incredibly open about his exit meeting conversations with players. He was very forthcoming with his answers regarding which players would or would not be returning or tendered qualifying offers. Fans craving information may not like this new approach, but the organization is tightening up its leaks. They are no longer exchanging information to the media for more positive coverage.

On where the organization is at in their search for a new head coach…

“In process and ongoing, for sure. We have spoken to a couple of people. We have a longer list. I think making sure we take the appropriate amount of time to be able to look at everybody that may be available is important. Now, if as we’re going through the process and we feel that we have the perfect candidate, then we would move on it. But, certainly at this point in time, we are still working through our list.”

If the organization continues hiring people they are familiar with and can trust, John Gruden will be at the top of the list because of his shared success with Staios and Andlauer and the Hamilton Bulldogs. Gruden may be a great coach and he could have a ton of success at the NHL level, but one drawback to his prospective hiring would be the optics.

Optics can be overcome with results, but those will take time. Fans want assurances that the best people are being hired, so it would be difficult for the organization to keep preaching its best in class mantra while continuing to hire people they have worked with before — especially ones with no previous NHL experience.

On envisioning whether the team would have a coach in place by the end of the playoffs…

“Hard to tell. Hard to tell. I think if some of these conversations move along more briskly and we feel comfortable that they’re checking the boxes to be our next head coach for the Ottawa Senators, we would move on it. It’s hard to tell from a timing perspective.”

Staios makes it sound like no decision is imminent. This could be a sign that John Gruden may not be the frontrunner for the gig. It could simply be due diligence, but perhaps the organization has its eyes on a few head coaches around the league whose job security may be in doubt should their teams lose in the postseason.

On whether Daniel Alfredsson merits consideration for the head coaching position…

“I had a great conversation with Alfie. I could say that he’s not going to be in consideration for the head coaching job at this point in time. I think this is something that we left a little bit open ended, but I think he does believe that if he does continue on the coaching path, he will need a little bit more time.”

I enjoy the fact that Daniel Alfredsson is back in the fold, but it is hard to wrap my head around the idea of him pursuing a full-time head coaching position. Principally because those positions have shelf lives and everyone wants to see Alfie be around this organization in perpetuity. Being a head coach would not tarnish his legacy here in this city, and hell, he might even be good at it and wind up having success. On the other hand, it is a weird dynamic. No one wants to see a franchise icon be fired or have his relationship with the organization suffer because of some shortcomings.

On the rest of the coaching staff and addressing whether they would continue in their roles for next season…

“Yeah, I mean, I can’t thank them enough. I think with Jacques, I’ll start with Jacques. Jacques is going to continue on with the organization in a consultant role. I’m allowing the other coaches the time to sort of let things unfold. In our process to bring in a head coach, there are a number of ways that I look at as far as building out the support staff. I think very highly of all of our coaches and the job that they have done. Extremely passionate and talented people. I’m not sure how it all unfolds for them, but certainly, I have no problem saying that I would welcome each and every one of them back.”

By giving the current staff time to see how the process unfolds, it certainly sounds like Staios will give the incoming head coach control to handpick hiw own staff.

On whether there is a certain positional concern that he needs improvement…

“I think there are a number of areas where we can get better, for sure. If I were talk specifically, I’ll bring up the goaltending because, I’ve said it before, I do believe the goaltenders we have are better than their numbers. I think the question is, do you address that because they had off years? There’s a number of areas that we need to address. I think initially going back to Jacques and the coaching staff and laying the foundation of how to play the right way, how to act like an Ottawa Senator, the details and the habits… I think allowed us a chance to evaluate all areas. There are certainly some areas that we do want to get involved in and try and help out from a management perspective. I’m also excited about the internal growth from this group moving forward.”

When Joonas Korpisalo is the worst-rated goalie in the league in terms of goals saved above expected (-13.6 GSAx), there is no place to go but up.

This was not all on Korpisalo either, the Senators finished the season with the league’s second-worst save percentage at all strengths — their 88.45 save percentage trailed only the Flyers’ 88.41. Anton Forsberg had moments of brilliance but failed to resemble the goaltender he was before suffering a double knee injury during the 2022-23 season. When he had a chance to play, Mads Sogaard looked out of place in his six appearances at the parent level. At the very least, Sogaard has not done anything to merit serious consideration for being a solution at the NHL level soon.

Buying Forsberg out with only a year left on his deal does nothing for the team’s bottom line. Any savings would be spent replacing him with a goaltender on the roster. The organization may have no choice but to hang hope on him bouncing back now that he is further removed from his injury.

The easiest solution to make a goaltending move would be to buy Korpisalo out, but it does not sound like that is an avenue the Senators want to consider.

On committing to Joonas Korpisalo and having him return as one of his goaltenders next year…

“I would say that we’ll look at everything – not specific to Korpi, as you’ve brought up and his contract. Again, I think that and I know that he will perform at a better rate next year. We’re going to look at all areas to try and improve.”

That is hardly a vote of confidence.

On being open to initiating contract negotiations with Jakob Chychrun…

“I would say that Jakob Chychrun is a heck of a player. We saw his talents this year with our group. When you talk about the buzz or the names at the trade deadline, the names of good hockey players come up often. As far as moving forward, I won’t open up any conversation in this forum on contracts or status or what we’re doing. But, we certainly think highly of Jakob Chychrun and a lot of our players. Now, we’ll look at all areas to see how it all fits, but that’s our job as a management staff to look at it as we move into the offseason.”

Jakob Chychrun created a stir yesterday while reflecting on whether he wanted to remain with the Senators for the next few years.

“It’s a tough question, I don’t know. I honestly have not thought about that. I know I have 1 more year left (on my contract). There haven’t been talks of an extension or anything so I haven’t got my head wrapped around that idea. It’s tough to sit here and act like I have. Take it day by day and see if and when we have those talks and go from there.”

As I joked on Twitter, Chychrun sounded like a guy who was asked what he was having for dinner that night. The defenceman may not have put much genuine thought into his future. Still, with a year left on his deal and the opportunity to cash in and test unrestricted free agency for the first time, I have a hard time believing that he has not seriously considered his situation.

Chychrun’s no dummy. He recognizes the situation on the team’s left side. Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are highly paid defencemen who play the same position and through the team’s usage patterns, it seems clear that the organization has a preference for defencemen to play their natural side. Due to their budget constraints and fits, allocating a significant amount of money to Chychrun when they already have two good left defencemen in the fold seems unlikely. If anything, his talent and inexpensive contract ($4.6 million AAV) make him a commodity the Senators should get good value for.

On what his biggest takeaway or disappointment from the season was…

“I mean, probably the biggest disappointment is we saw when we played at our potential, we were a very good team – in particular against some of the contending teams. We played some of our best games. Pinpointing exactly what it is to be consistent, I think that there are a number of areas. I really do. As hard as it is, they need to go through these scenarios and situations and years where it is utter disappointment because it will only drive them to get better. They have to go through a year where there is conflict and there is turmoil. They need to know how to deal with that. And, that’s what I talk about from internal growth. As hard as this season was for us as managers and for our fans and players, it might be the most important year to build this program and team to where we need it to get to. These are the hardships that, if you use them in the right way, you learn. I asked the players yesterday to specifically self-reflect. I thought that that’s important to do it and to do it honestly. I think you don’t have a chance when things are going really well, you don’t self-reflect all that much. I think this is a good opportunity for us.”

Building resiliency and drive is important. Parlaying a disappointing campaign into a strong offseason is paramount because this team needs everyone aboard and performing at a high level right out of the gate next season.

Another disappointing campaign could have key players seeking a change.

On Tim Stützle’s season, his frustrations and what he has to work on for next season…

“When you’re a top talent like that, you feel that you can make an impact on any shift. So, when it doesn’t happen, that’s the frustration. That will be the growth for Tim and we know it is coming. How can we support and expedite that growth and maturity? It does take time, but I’ve talked to him specifically about that. His intentions are to help the Ottawa Senators on every single shift and use his God-given talent, so when it doesn’t happen for him, there is some frustration. As you mature, he is going to learn how to channel that in the right way.”

There is no mistaking the fact that Tim Stützle suffered a setback this season after an exemplary 2022-23 campaign that saw the centre tally 39 goals and 90 points.

He performed at almost a point-per-game pace this season (18 goals, 70 points in 75 games), but Stützle’s offence and defence suffered per HockeyViz.

The good news is that there’s an explanation for his struggles. Stützle acknowledged yesterday that he suffered a wrist injury in the fourth game of the season and admitted that it plagued him throughout the entirety of the season.

Without knowing how Josh Norris’ performance in 2024-25 will be affected by his latest shoulder surgery, the Senators will need a better version of Stützle.

On the work of Jacques Martin this season and whether his presence as a consultant means they are looking to hire a younger coach…

“I think that he provided everything that we needed as far as where we were as a group, the age of our group, where we lacked… he certainly brought that foundational piece and I believe it’s going to be lasting for this group moving forward. So, I think he’s done a tremendous job. He brings poise, professionalism, details, wisdom along with our coaching staff in general for these players and this core group of players moving forward. As far as keeping him on as a consultant, there is a lot of work that needs to be done in my job and our jobs as managers. It’s always good to have someone with that experience in and around the game. And, also (be) there for our coaches, whomever our next head coach would be. If he needs to tap into Jacques or needs anything from that perspective… also, he’s a great hockey mind. As far as special assignments and maybe evaluation for me moving forward, we want to continue to bring in good people into our organization. Jacques is an incredible gentleman.”

It is good to hear that Martin will remain in a consulting role with the organization. It would have been easy for him or the organization to move on once they hired a new head coach, but keeping his values and knowledge in the fold could pay dividends.

On Josh Norris’ surgery and recovery…

“I won’t speak specifically to the surgery, but it went well. He is going to be ready to go come training camp for us. I think Josh is an incredibly resilient young man. All of our players go through injuries at certain times and Josh is dealing with another significant one so early in his career. But, I think he’s doing very well with it, I think, probably because he’s gone through it already. He knows the routine, unfortunately. But, I expect Josh to be 100 percent healthy physically and mentally. We’ll support him on both sides of it going through this. I know specifically that the injury is probably less important at certain times when you go through long rehabs. Having mental support from us as an organization is going to be important.”

Putting any stock into comments about when Norris should be recovered is difficult when similar attempts to placate concerns about his shoulder were made last summer. Norris was expected to be 100 percent and ready for training camp in 2023, but he missed all of training camp and the first three games of the regular season while recovering from his second shoulder surgery.

As I have mentioned previously, other players like Vladimir Tarasenko have had three shoulder surgeries before, so the hope is that Norris can recover and still be an effective player. In saying that however, these recurring injuries are seriously putting a damper on the hopes he can fulfill the six years and $47.7 million left on his contract.

On the importance of bilingualism in hiring a new coach…

“Well, I do think it is important. I have made a commitment to learn more French and hopefully one day be able to answer your questions (in that language). We think it’s important for us as an organization and obviously Michael (Andlauer) does as well. It would certainly be a factor in it, but I don’t think it can be the major factor. What we are really digging in on… there’s a long list of coaches who are very good coaches that can come in and coach the Ottawa Senators. What we are really trying to do is find the right person for the job at this time with our group. We’ve had time to evaluate our group on where we think they are. Trying to find that personality and that style of coach, if he’s bilingual, that checks another box for us. It is important to Michael and it is important to us as an organization.”

Being bilingual is one hell of an asset to have in this market and I sure as hell do not want to downplay its importance — especially when this organization has historically struggled to draw fans from Gatineau and the east end. Serving this underrepresented portion of the fan base and making concerted efforts to grow it should be paramount — even without considering how the Senators’ next arena will be significantly closer to this city’s core and the Ontario/Quebec border.

Staios deftly handled this question like a politician, however. Bilingualism is an excellent box to check, but this is not Montreal, under no circumstances should it be an ultimate factor when determining the next coach.

On the 2025 NHL Draft and his philosophies on how the selection could go…

“I can speak to it. We look for specific things to start our evaluation off. We certainly value character and hockey sense. We’ve got an incredible group of amateur scouts that have really been grinding it out. I’m looking forward to getting down to our final list. We’ll have our meetings here in a couple of weeks here in Ottawa. As far as philosophy, there might be a time in the draft where you look positional, but certainly at the top of the board, we’re looking at best player.”

The Senators have made changes in the hockey operations department on the pro scouting side, so it will be interesting to see whether that happens on the amateur side once the 2024 NHL Draft has concluded. It is too close to the draft for there to be any changes now, but maybe there will be shuffling or additions to bolster the staff at the end of June.

On whether he feels the pressure as the general manager to make moves this offseason…

“I’m driven to find something, but as far as pressure, I don’t feel pressure to try and do something to do something. If I felt pressure to do something to do something, I would have made a couple of trades at the trade deadline that at the end of the day wouldn’t have made sense. But, at least I would have had something to talk to you about. Just to know how I’m approaching this offseason, I don’t think that there’s… I’m not going to do anything just to do anything. It has to be the right fit. We worked diligently as a staff to identify where we need to get better. We’ve identified the list of players that may be available either via free agency or trade, and that will be our approach.”

The Senators patiently bided their time and took a measured approach when it came to making transactions. It may infuriate some or concern others who want to see actual moves so that we have some body of work to analyze. Fans want assurances that the people in charge can operate efficiently and make smart moves to put this franchise in a better position to succeed. So far, we have not had that.

The only move the team made was a waiver claim on Boris Katchouk and although he represented a modest improvement to the team’s bottom-six depth, it is hard to glean much more from that.

I am still pretty optimistic in this group’s ability, but it’s early in the process and they have not made a glaring mistake. We can criticize their unwillingness to fire Smith and Dorion immediately upon the sale of the franchise, but I appreciate their patience and measured approach. If the emphasis for this season was on making accurate evaluations behind the scenes, that is fine — provided it builds towards efficient moves in the future.

On whether a buyout would be a mechanism to consider using this offseason…

“I would consider anything. I don’t believe that there’s any consideration for that, for us, for this group at this time.”

This could be lip service. If the goal for Staios is to exhaust all avenues before arriving at a buyout for players like Korpisalo or Hamonic, so be it. Expecting him to acknowledge it as realistic could undermine that process while negatively impacting the organization’s relationship with those prospective players.