Senators general manager Pierre Dorion joined hosts Steve Lloyd and Chris Stevenson on TSN 1200’s ‘In the Box’ yesterday morning to discuss the Senators’ recent success, the trade deadline and the team’s injury situation.
Management has been has not actively participated in a ton of media availabilities this season, so it was nice to hear the general manager speak at length to discuss the team’s state of affairs at the halfway mark of the regular season.
If you are not familiar with the format of this post, I have transcribed Dorion’s comments below. Following each of his answers, I have added my own thoughts which will be highlighted in bold.
The full audio for Dorion’s interview can be found at the bottom of this post.
Hope you enjoy the post…
On what he is up to over the break…
“Over the next few days I will be going into the OHL to scout some of our previously drafted prospects and some players who will be available for the upcoming draft.”
When thinking about Ottawa’s OHL prospects, one that won’t be watched by Pierre Dorion is Tyler Boucher. Boucher sustained a shoulder injury in the 67’s game against Sudbury last weekend. Although the prognosis was not as bad as it was anticipated, he will be out for the next few weeks recovering. With Boucher on the shelf, it seems like Dorion will be scouting Senators prospects like Leevi Merilainen, Ben Roger, and Chandler Romeo.
In terms of prospective first-round talent that Dorion could be eyeing, it seems fair to assume that he will be keeping tabs on Shane Wright because of the Kingston connection with Merilainen. Other prospective first rounders include Pavel Mintyukov (LD, Saginaw) and Ty Nelson (RD, North Bay).
On the team’s recent stretch of good play over the last 11 games and it coinciding with the goaltending improvement…
“I wish I could give you an answer (as to why goaltending has been better) because we would have tried to fix it probably earlier. For us, I just think guys are finding their groove. Obviously, as a team, we had to defend better. But, the last line of defence is always goaltending and sometimes you get bad bounces and things don’t go your way. But, I think we’ve made a commitment to playing better defence – boxing out better – and that’s helped the goalies see the puck. Both of them, since that point in time, have been outstanding and we need them to be outstanding for us to win games.”
The goaltending has improved during this recent stretch of games. Using the sample size that host Chris Stevenson was referring to (January 13th – February 3rd), Anton Forsberg has rocked a .911 save percentage in all situations while Matt Murray has rocked a .939 save percentage while recording a 2.79 goals saved above average (GSAA) metric per NaturalStatTrick. He is the only Senators goalie during this stretch to post a positive GSAA rate.
With two years left on the four-year contract that Murray signed in 2020, the Senators desperately need Murray to establish himself as someone they can count on to play semi-regularly. It is one thing to be asked to endure some poor stretches of hockey and backstop a rebuilding team without realistic playoff aspirations. It is quite another to help propel this team forward and put it in playoff contention.
After his poor start to the season culminated with him being placed on waivers, Murray’s game has rebounded. Although this is just a small sample of games, this run of games is the best stretch of hockey that he has played since joining the Senators.
It is far too soon and far too small of a sample to erase the past few years for Murray, but for a player who was looking like a prospective buyout candidate this summer, even if he can continue to play at a league average level, the Senators will probably keep him around.
And that is where the pressure is going to lie. With Anton Forsberg being an unrestricted free agent and the organization entrusting their veterans to play ahead of Filip Gustavsson, the long-term goaltending outlook in Ottawa is pretty murky.
That is not to say that there isn’t young depth in the system. There absolutely is. Beyond the aforementioned Gustavsson, the Senators have Mads Sogaard playing well in Belleville. In the AHL’s North Division, the Belleville Senators have the fewest number of points, but Sogaard is rocking a 9-8-0 record with a .911 save percentage and a goals against average of 2.61.
The goaltending position is volatile enough and with it, the prospect attrition rate is quite high. If Murray’s recent play does not continue, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on one of Gustavsson or Sogaard to pan. And with all of the concerns regarding Tyler Boucher’s start to the 2021-22 season, it could open the door to a ton of revisionist history with Sebastian Cossa and Jesper Wallstedt being taken shortly after.
On the importance of practice time and DJ Smith being able to make some tweaks to the forechecking and neutral zone strategies…
“I think Monday… we meet every morning, DJ and myself. We were just talking about it. He did change the neutral zone system from a 1-2-2 to probably what we would call a 1.5-1.5-2. It seems with our personnel and the way that you have to skate a bit more as forwards and cut off those lanes, it’s really seemed to help us. It’s helped us in our counterattack and I think it’s helped us as far as when we get to guys being where they need to be if pucks get by from the neutral zone to our defensive zone coverage. So, I think a lot of credit goes to DJ. Your point about practicing, there’s no doubt. When teams get to practice, I think it really helps with team structure and knowing what everyone’s role has to be. You guys have been at DJ Smith’s practices. They are hard, they’re fast-paced, they’re not always the longest but they get to the point. They have a purpose to them. Being able to practice, all that time has really helped us. A lot of things I wished we could have changed from earlier this year, but I think one of the facts that we didn’t have a good November is I think we had two practices the entire month. If I’m off on my number and it was four, I apologize. We never got to practice. You guys get a chance to come to the rink and I don’t think there were many times that you guys were there in November.”
With so many injuries, even with the practices, the Senators’ lineup has been pretty fluid with players slotting in at different spots. Full marks to the players for adjusting and adapting to some difficult circumstances.
On the start of the season being a challenge and what he has learned from the poor starts of the past few seasons to help ensure it does not happen next season…
“There’s no doubt that we’ve talked a lot internally about it. We talked a lot internally about it during the season last year and after the season. It’s something that… there can’t be any more excuses here. We have to get out of the season better next year than we have in the last two seasons. Now obviously, there were other factors this year more than last year, but this can’t happen for three seasons in a row. We have to be in the conversation when December hits, when Christmas hits and when January comes. It’s something that all of us in management have talked about internally with the coaches. One of things is we’ve made quite a few roster changes just because of turnover and all these things. I think trying to have as much of the same group as the previous year or the guys coming, if we could get them into Ottawa – the new players – instead of coming in a week before camp… the new players… if they could come in a month before camp (it would help). There are a lot of ways to think about it, but these are things that we can’t let happen for a third year in a row next year.”
The interesting wrinkle here is that from a results-oriented point of view, the Senators finished last season strong and talked a lot about carrying that momentum into the 2021-22 season. That never materialized, but the Senators had a relatively quiet offseason with few additions outside signing Tyler Ennis to a professional tryout (PTO), trading Evgenii Dadonov for Nick Holden and signing Michael Del Zotto.
On the blue line, it was quite clear that despite the team’s success down the stretch, the Senators just did not trust a lineup that dressed two undersized defencemen on the left side. Erik Brannstrom paid the price for that earlier in the season and it took him until late January to begin playing regularly.
Familiarity and the development of this team’s young players is this team’s calling card. Injuries have sidelined a number of Ottawa’s youth and prospects this season and it’s been a huge blow. But, when this team’s young players have all been healthy, they have demonstrated consistently that they are capable of carrying this club.
With quality goaltending and a good supporting cast, there’s no reason to believe that this team cannot show marked improvements in the standings next year. In saying that, it will put a ton of pressure on management to add quality players in the offseason.
On continuity being important and what is a reasonable number of changes for the team next season…
“Without a doubt it’s something that we are looking at already. Ideally, you’d like to make as many hockey trades by the trade deadline here to almost have your full team ready for next year. Saying to the guys, ‘Use the post-trade deadline time to build chemistry and start off strong next year.’ But, that’s in an ideal world and not always in a practical world. Obviously, we might look to add one or two pieces in the offseason depending on needs, positions, who’s trending upwards from Belleville, who’s ready to play or contribute, these sort of things. The other thing is trying to avoid injuries. Sometimes some are luck and some are the condition that you come in. I think a lot of our players were shocked about how hard DJ’s first camp was compared to where his second and third camp have been. I think the players have been more ready. So, there’s also that part about it, but we don’t want players missing out on their summer months because you want players to be refreshed. But, I think there are things that we can look at to make sure that you’re prepared as best as possible.”
Looking at the prospects who have played games in Belleville this season, the only realistic options who may stand a chance of pushing for regular duty next season are Lassi Thomson, Egor Sokolov and Jacob Bernard-Docker. With Artyom Zub and Nikita Zaitsev already penciled in on the right side and Josh Brown as an unrestricted free agent, that leaves room for one potential opening on the right side. Right wing is probably the thinnest position of depth in Ottawa’s system. Connor Brown, Drake Batherson and Austin Watson are all signed through next season, so there could potentially be an opening in Ottawa’s top-nine for Sokolov.
In 28 games this season for Belleville, Sokolov has contributed nine goals and 21 points with 80 shots on goal.
The Senators’ short-term interests would probably be better served if they look for an NHL-ready right winger who can play in the team’s top-six next season. Of course, it is easier to say that that for the Senators to actually go out and bring in an outside talent. Knowing that, if the Senators continue to remain tight-pocketed and patient with player development, I could envision the team rolling with Sokolov as a third-line right winger and second power play unit guy as early as next season.
On the March 21st trade deadline and whether he’s looking at bringing in guys who could be here next year or whether it will be more traditional in the sense that he will be looking to move some impending unrestricted free agents…
“Again, we’d like to make more hockey trades than rental trades when the trade deadline comes. But, we always have to do what’s best for the organization. We’ve had a lot of picks. Adding assets and picks never hurts an organization and that’s something we’d like to do. As far as bring guys up from Belleville, we have to be careful with where players are in their development. We always want players to come up here and have success so they develop properly. We don’t want a player coming up here and playing the last 15 games after the trade deadline and not having a point or not having an impact. So, we pretty much have to start at zero when the following season comes along. Sometimes, we might keep a guy that maybe we won’t bring back next year to make sure that that prospect that we would have brought up, keeps on getting better in Belleville. Even though there is a difference between the American (Hockey) League and the NHL, the NHL is still a man’s league and you’re going up against the best in the world. Sometimes that’s difficult for a player who has only played one year pro or two years pro and isn’t ready to be what he will be when he’s reached full maturity in his development.”
Small market teams that cannot spend to the upper reaches of the cap ceiling should never apologize for hording draft picks and lottery tickets to acquire inexpensive talent. Admittedly, if the Senators are not drafting young talent, it is going to be pretty difficult to acquire the kind of pieces this team will need to push it to that next level.
In saying that, impending UFAs like Chris Tierney, Zach Sanford, Tyler Ennis, Josh Brown and Anton Forsberg probably won’t fetch the team more than some mid or late round picks. The only exception may be Nick Paul. If the team cannot come to terms on an extension with him, perhaps a team would value Paul’s defensive contributions at even strength and on the penalty kill.
Aside from that, if Dorion’s serious about expressing interest in making hockey deals, the only other thing that makes sense is an Erik Brannstrom trade. If he continues to play well, show flexibility by playing on the left and right side, perhaps there’s a team with a need for a puck-moving defenceman who would be willing to move another young asset to the Senators in exchange for Brannstrom. Once Jake Sanderson finishes his season at UND, he will immediately become a regular on the Senators’ blue line.
Perhaps there could have been room before Nick Holden signed a one-year contract extension with the Senators this past week, but looking ahead, Brannstrom may offer the Senators more value as a trade asset than as a third-pairing/second power play unit player.
On whether the team is near the tipping point on acquiring draft picks and assets or whether it is worth transitioning to adding players to make this team better now…
“I think we are at that point. Obviously, if we can’t sign some pending UFAs, we have to look at getting picks and prospects or whatever. In reference to your question, I think we have a lot of the pieces of a Cup contending team here. I think most of the pieces are here, whether it’s adding one or two pieces to make sure that continues is probably something that we’re looking at.”
The trick for Dorion will be targeting the right players and augmenting this roster without giving up the farm.
On getting something done with Nick Holden and whether it’s fair to say that he would like to get a contract extension done with Nick Paul…
“I don’t negotiate through the media. We don’t negotiate in public about player contracts.”
I wrote about Nick Paul’s situation recently. You can read my thoughts on his status here.
On any updates to the injury situations and whether there is new information available regarding Josh Norris’ shoulder…
“No, he’s seen… I believe he’s seeing the surgeon who operated on him in Michigan over the next few days here. We believe, and he’s talked to our surgeons, that most likely surgery is not going to be needed. If we compare it to where Shane Pinto is or Colin White was, it probably took them a month to get to where Josh is right now. So, we don’t foresee surgery, but it’s probably another… from the time of the injury to three-to-four-week thing… maybe a bit more. We’re going to make sure he can go through practice and take contact. We’re hopeful that he’ll be back at some point in time in February. Drake Batherson, from the time of the injury was a 10-to-12-week thing, we’re looking at probably April. And we all know that he will not be the same player that he was before. High-ankle sprains are very difficult injuries to get back your legs – your skating, you are pushing off and all these things. Colin White is making tremendous progress. He’s putting a lot of work in on the ice and off the ice. As everyone has seen, he started skating with us. With these types of injuries, until the surgeon okays it, he won’t be allowed to play. But, we’re targeting February 26th… and again, I’m saying that date, but it could be a week or two after that. It’s not because he’s not ready. We just want to make sure that Colin feels confident to play, but I’ve really been impressed with the work that he has put in. Connor Brown will play Monday. Dylan Gambrell is sometime next week and also, (Nikita) Zaitsev is sometime next week. But, I think both will practice with us on Sunday and we’ll have a better indication. (Shane) Pinto? Shane wants to play. We want him to play more for the fact about not getting games (at the end of the year). But, more for the fact of crossing the mental hurdle of training as hard as he can during the summer knowing that he has played a few games. We’re looking at mid to late April, if he does come back. We’re going to be extremely and overly cautious on that one. He’s putting time and effort in. With these injuries, they are four to five to six or even sometimes seven months (spent recovering), so we’re going to make sure on that one that we do everything correctly and get the surgeon to sign off. Because ultimately, at the end of the day, they have the final say to say Shane’s okay.”
Maybe it is because there is a hypersensitivity to these injuries because when a team is bad, the one thing that you can really hang your hat on is the continued growth and development of the team’s youngest players. This season, it just feels like the volume of injuries to the young core has been ridiculously high.
To have players like Shane Pinto, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom and even Colin White spend considerable time on the shelf, it not only takes development time away, but it removes the opportunity for them to develop more cohesion and chemistry with their young teammates. For older and more established pro players like Norris and Batherson, maybe that isn’t as big a deal, but for Pinto, it is an incredibly disappointing way for his first professional to go.
On an update to Filip Gustavsson’s status after leaving the Belleville game Wednesday night…
“No. I’m waiting to talk to Peter (MacTavish) later on today. I’ve been on the phone pretty much all morning, but I know he tried to call. I don’t think it’s anything serious. It’s really nothing serious. I presume he’ll play or backup on Friday or play in one of those two games. And, (Jacob Bernard-Docker) got a baseball swing to the head, it looks like. So, that one I’ll leave to the good people of the American (Hockey) League to decide.”
On the list of disappointing seasons, it is starting to feel like this is a bit of a lost season for Filip Gustavsson. After finishing the 2020-21 season looking like a promising future piece of the goaltending picture in Ottawa, Gustavsson has not been able to play regularly this year. In the 73 combined games that Ottawa (40) and Belleville (33) have played this season, Gustavsson has made 16 appearances this season between the two levels. Not surprisingly, his numbers have suffered.
In his 12 appearances in Ottawa, Gustavsson has posted a 3-8-1 record with an .892 save percentage and a goals against average of 3.80. In Belleville, the numbers are worse. In four games, he sports a goals against average of 4.23 and an .857 save percentage.
The athleticism is still there, so it’s hard to get too worked up about poor metrics considering the small sample sizes and infrequent play, but everyone from Gustavsson to management has to be disappointed with his season.
On Tim Stützle’s performance at centre, future projections and changing the needs of this team moving forward…
“Well, I think I referred to this in the last interview with you. When Colin White went down, I remember DJ and I talking about at some point in time giving him… like last year, we gave him a few periods with Tim playing centre. But, we talked about at some point during the season giving him looks at centre depending on where the team was going and all these things. I remember that meeting very clearly. DJ said he wanted about a full season of him playing in the NHL just to get him accustomed to it. And, I said, ‘Well, probably about 100 games would be better for him.’ I think at about 85 games of his career, we put him there and he’s been tremendous there. He has the puck a bit more and you want him having the puck a bit more. Defensively, he’s been very solid. He really supports well down low. He still goes back a bit too much as far as turning back and not just throwing it on… whether it’s on the strong side or weak side to get the puck up the ice. But, you know, he’s skating well and he doesn’t get the chance to fly the zone as much as wingers can do, but his development at centre so far has been very good. You’ve got to be careful. Some nights… there have been a few nights where he’s been a dash quite a bit and the responsibilities haven’t been as good, but it’s part of the growth process. We have to understand that you can scream and you want to do this and want to do this, but sometimes, they’re just not ready for those responsibilities. They’re not ready. What people don’t understand is that… I remember last year there was a game in Vancouver… I think we got blown out 7-1… and every shift, Tim was a minus. People don’t think about a player’s psyche and how it affects them for the next week or the next two weeks for as much as you try and encourage them. You have to be careful in your development of how you do these things. It’s not just try this, try this and try that. You’ve got to think about how it’s going to affect him. Not just the team, but how it’s going to affect him and his development. How he’ll feel about how he can do it. People don’t know it, but there was some hesitation from himself to play centre, Tim Stützle. You have to make sure that he’s comfortable with the league when you put him there and that’s what the process is. It’s not that DJ is stubborn or the organization is stubborn. It’s DJ wants to make sure that these players have success. I love what he’s done and now you look at what he’s doing with (Alex) Formenton giving him a bit of power play time. At the start of the year, you put him on the power play and he might think something differently. It’s just a process and we’ve still got a lot of young players and you’ve got to be patient in how you handle them.”
As devastating as the injury was for Pinto’s season or for Colin White in what was a “show me” season for him, their absences created one hell of an opportunity for Stützle to play centre. Without it, perhaps he stays on the wing and takes way longer to develop because he does not get the puck touches and more opportunities to create offence.
Dorion speaks of Stützle’s improved commitment to defence, but earlier I mentioned that Nick Paul’s defensive aptitude could be valued by another team. When doing some digging on defensive impacts, I was checking out EvolvingHockey’s data. Using its ‘Total Defence’ metric (DEF) that looks at the combined worth of a player’s even-strength and shorthanded contributions, the forward who has the highest DEF on the roster is Tim Stützle (3.4).
Playing centre has made him a more assertive player and allows him to showcase his talents with the puck. He is creating more chances for himself and his linemates and it makes it really easy to look at the Senators’ depth down the middle now – Norris, Stützle and Pinto – and recognize that those top-three guys have the ability to give Ottawa an incredibly talented group to anchor the first three lines. Without Stützle’s emergence, it would have been easy to say that the Senators may need to look at adding another offensive centre. Now, it takes a ton of pressure off the organization to draft and develop another one.
https://autopod.isilive.ca/podcasts/chum/179/92400/pierredorion.mp3
This is great analysis. Thanks for writing it.
I really think the Tyler Boucher pick was a misstep. As you note in your article, the opportunity to pick one of 2 stellar goalies, a position that is tough to predict and has high attrition, was a big mistake. A great goalie can change the fortunes of a franchise and hide many other mistakes. I have a hard time understanding the Boucher pick. Some combination of trying to draft for “need” (DJ type player) and overvaluing NHL lineage (Dad is a former NHLer) blinds them to the fact that they should occasionally swing for the fences. It seems that the Sens value a low floor over a high ceiling when evaluating their prospects. I just think they should have invested a high skill player who they work towards developing over time - especially given their recent history in strong player development. I think this is less revisionist history than recording what conventional wisdom was at the time.
The other weird thing is that Dorion seems to be suggesting that their biggest mistake was not having players report to camp a month earlier than required to build chemistry. I mean, this is obviously misdirection. We know the problem was poor player evaluation (Delzotto) combined with a coach who plays grit over skill.
Finally, I’m curious to see what happens when Zaitsev comes back. He is a tire fire in his own end and kills the breakout. I suspect that we will see a fall of when he comes back and I hope it forces management to realize his shortcomings and appropriately value the ability to move the puck (Thomson and Brannstrom have borne been good at this).
thanks for this - excellent read!