Nick Paul and the Trade Deadline
Nick Paul has been in the news cycle lately for a variety of important reasons.
First and foremost, with this being a week to promote mental health awareness, Nick Paul has been featured in radio interviews and print for his involvement with the Royal Ottawa Foundation for Mental Health. Paul announced his ‘Points for Paul’ campaign in which he will donate $150 for each point he contributes this season. Paul’s donation will be matched by the Senators’ charitable arm.
Paul’s been a mental health advocate for quite some time and in a piece of information that I did not know, he actually sits on the Royal Ottawa’s foundation board.
After playing parts of seven seasons, Paul has had a chance to develop and finally lay some roots in the community. His fiancee works at CHEO and this charitable work will ensure he’s part of the social fabric here moving forward.
Which makes it really interesting to see these recent developments considering the uncertain future. Paul, the team’s 2021 Masterton Trophy nominee, is slated to become an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career. After earning $1.5 million in the second year of his two-year extension ($1.35 average annual value), Paul finally has a chance to explore the open market and determine just how valuable he can be.
A quick glimpse at the back of his hockey card stats will portray the picture of a depth player whose modest production is expendable. In a league where offensive production is what typically drives contract value, the six goals, nine points and minus-15 rating in 35 games played are not going to break the bank.
They don’t tell the full story though.
Paul is one of the team’s best defensive forwards. Admittedly, maybe that does not resonate as much as it should considering the Senators allow the most shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five hockey (61.36 CA/60) in the league. They also rank in the bottom-10 in goals allowed and expected goals allowed per 60.
Being better defensively than his teammates simply is not that difficult for Paul, but it should not underemphasize Paul’s defensive contributions.
Evolving-Hockey rates Paul as Ottawa’s second-most impactful defensive player using their ‘Total Defence’ statistic (DEF) that combines even-strength and shorthanded contributions. Across the league, Paul’s 2.3 DEF is tied for the league’s 23rd highest mark.
The problem with Paul’s possession marks is that they are not particularly flattering. Tough matchups with more defensive zone starts are a common recurrence because of his shutdown checking role. Paul often plays down the lineup with less skilled linemates and the results speak for themselves.
Hockeyviz.com has an excellent breakdown of the impacts on Paul’s five-on-five shot rates.
Sticking with Hockeviz.com, the site does an excellent job isolating creating a visual of Paul’s defensive impact.
In years passed, Paul’s offence has been below league average, but it has not been as bad as it is now. My suspicion is that his offensive rates these past two seasons have been down because there is a tendency by the player to rely too much on the forecheck to create his chances.
Rather than hold onto the puck through the neutral zone and have the confidence to make plays against the opposition to establish control in the offensive zone, Paul’s lines have been guilty of playing too conservatively and over-relying on the dump and chase.
As an effective forechecker, it makes sense to see a player play to his strengths, using his blend of size, speed and smarts to recover pucks, but I believe Paul could stand to use this same combination of traits to help drive play through the neutral zone.
Having seen flashes of it from time to time, Paul is capable of doing it. I’m just wondering if he simply needs an injection of confidence or encouragement from his coaches to dissuade him from simply dumping the puck in. Moreover, it feels safe to assume that Paul’s all-around game will inevitably improve as the players around him continue to grow and evolve — especially on the blue line.
The good news about Paul’s offence over the last two seasons should make it easier for the Senators to re-sign him. It may even shorten the list of suitors who are interested in him as a deadline option.
For a player with his aptitude and traits, he should be a desirable commodity for any playoff contender looking for quality depth. In the right situation, I believe there’s a little bit more offence to Paul that he can show. He only turns 27 years old in March, so Paul’s career has a lot of mileage left on it.
There is a lot to like about Paul, but in saying that, teams should refrain from overpaying or overextending themselves on depth pieces. The Senators have been guilty in doing that in the past, but I think where the difference lies here is that where players like Zack Smith were due for regression coming off unsustainable shooting effects, Paul’s a good defender whose offence and tendencies will hopefully improve with the team around him.
If the Senators can lock him in for another three or four years at an average annual value between $2.0-2.5 million, they should really push for an extension because I believe Paul brings more value playing for the Senators than he would as a trade asset.
Batherson Injury
According to Bruce Garrioch’s sources, Senators right-winger Drake Batherson reportedly suffered a high-ankle sprain that will likely shelve the Senators’ leading scorer for months.
He sustained the injury Tuesday night when Buffalo goaltender Aaron Dell interfered with him on a play behind the Sabres’ net.
It was such a greasy play, but Dell has exhibited a pattern of behavior here.
The NHL’s Department of Player Safety announced that Dell received a three-game suspension for interference.
Even with a suspension, it is hard to get any satisfaction from the news. Buffalo is in a similar rebuilding situation to Ottawa, so losing one of the worst statistical goaltenders in the league is inconsequential.
For Batherson, he was slated to make his first appearance as an NHL All-Star in Vegas after his torrid start to the season. That moment was taken away from him and he will no longer be able to attend. Brady Tkachuk was named as his replacement.
From the team’s standpoint, the loss of Batherson is huge. Right-wing is the thinnest position of depth on the Senators’ roster. There is no one on the roster or in the system that can step in and provide anything remotely close to a fraction of the production and performance that the Senators were getting out of Batherson.
In looking at the Senators’ underlying numbers, Batherson’s absence will effectively hinder one of the only things that the team has done well this season: finish.
According to JFresh Hockey’s data, the Senators rank in the top-half of five-on-five goals for and finishing.
The magnitude of the loss of Batherson is huge and thanks to all of the postponed games that were rescheduled, Ottawa’s essentially playing every second night through the rest of their schedule. It’s an unenviable situation for the team. Even if you believe that there’s a silver lining in the sense that the team’s draft position should improve, this feels a bit like the Shane Pinto situation. There is a ton of value in having this young core develop and play together as much as they possibly can.
Other News and Notes:
Eugene Melnyk indicated that he will challenge Ontario’s capacity limit policy. The current policy allows for the Senators to have 500 people in the building until February 21st when it increases to an allowance of 50-percent capacity.
Senators general manager Pierre Dorion was spotted at Monday’s Canadiens/Wild game. According to Pierre LeBrun’s sources, Dorion was there to see the Wild and had a brief conversation with Wild general manager Bill Guerin.