There is a unique dynamic going on in this city for fans of the Ottawa Senators.
Emotional fatigue has set in with fans and it is completely understandable. When the organization consciously decided to tear its roster down and auction off all its talent to the highest bidders, fans accepted it. Even if the motivations behind this rebuild likely had more to do with ownership’s desire to cut costs to the bone than the on-ice product, the hope was that this team could find enough good players at the top of the draft to build a strong core that could eventually contend.
The organization has accrued some valuable young talent that restored some of the goodwill that was lost over the better part of the last 15 years. Over time, however, even the most optimistic and naive fans began to recognize it would take more than a handful of draft selections to raise this organization to a contender.
As the dust settled on Pierre Dorion’s dismissal and the season played out, it became increasingly clear that years of mismanagement under an autocratic general manager who recklessly and arrogantly believed himself to be a savant had set this franchise back.
It is an unenviable position for Michael Andlauer and Steve Staios to inherit. Each Dorion move from last summer failed to move the needle or flatly bombed altogether. It resulted in fans growing weary of an underwhelming product while management was handcuffed at seemingly every turn.
With an underperforming roster, the hope was that management would be able to sell off the spare parts. During what has been a noticeably quiet season, fans have been waiting for this new management group to put their stamp on the team. Fans want to be imbued with a sense of confidence that this group can deftly navigate the market and stockpile valuable assets.
It never materialized.
Despite publicly acknowledging that the organization could potentially use the deadline to acquire some veteran experience to insulate the core, no additions to the roster were made. Given the limited market and a poorly regarded farm system, it never made sense for the Senators to compete with playoff-bound teams for veteran talent.
Fans expected the organization to proactively sell their disposable assets, but it never happened.
It is commonplace for fans to overvalue the worth of their favourite organization’s players and prospects. It happens everywhere and is hardly unique to Ottawa. As easy as it is to say that the organization should have cut bait and got whatever it could, most fans should understand why teams would be reluctant to give up anything for pieces like Dominik Kubalik.
The only move the Senators made at the deadline was moving Vladimir Tarasenko to the Panthers for a third and fourth-round pick. It was a modest return and naturally, there was an accompanying backlash.
Despite the player and management acknowledging that Florida was the only place Tarasenko was willing to waive his no-trade clause for, a sect of the fan base believed the Senators played their hand poorly. As one of the few expendable players on the roster who had some semblance of value, many argued the organization could have held on until deadline day or threatened to hold onto the player past the deadline if he did not expand his list.
It is reasonable to assume that the deal transpired when it did because the Panthers were fully prepared to move on to other alternatives. Management was handcuffed by Tarasenko’s full no-trade clause. Faced with an alternative where they received nothing, Staios pulled the trigger and did right by the player.
In a world where he is trying to establish his reputation as a general manager with the players around the league, it is hard to blame him — especially when Staios will have to go out in the market this summer to attract new veteran talent (or possibly even revisit the possibility of bringing Tarasenko back). Moreover, it is worth acknowledging how depressed the trade market was for more talented alternatives. Tyler Toffoli and Anthony Mantha were moved for better returns, but the disparity between the deals was not that significant considering the measure of control Tarasenko had over the process. (In fact, I’d argue that the Panthers would probably have been better served targeting the alternatives.)
One player who had a ton of inherent value was Jakob Chychrun.
The Arizona Coyotes dealt Chychrun to the Senators at last year’s trade deadline for a conditional 2023 first-round draft pick, a conditional second-round selection in 2024 (from the Washington Capitals), and a second-round pick in 2026. (The conditions of the attached picks were as follows: the 2023 was top-five protected and would become an unprotected first-rounder in 2024; the conditional second-round selection in 2024 would become a first-round pick with top-10-protection if the Senators reached the 2023 Eastern Conference final - which, if that condition was met would have become an unprotected 2025 first-round pick.)
Arizona hoped to capitalize on the long odds that some of these conditions would be met, but they never materialized. The Coyotes ultimately wound up with the Senators’ 12th overall selection in 2023, a 2024 second-rounder acquired from the Connor Brown trade and a 2026 second-round pick.
Chychrun has gone on to play 73 games for the Senators contributing 11 goals and 36 points.
TSN’s Darren Dreger reported earlier in the week that the market for Chychrun was heating up ahead of the deadline.
As a natural left-shot defenceman who had another season left on a deal that pays him an average annual value of $4.6 million, it made sense for the Senators to do their due diligence and listen to offers.
Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are also both signed through the 2027-28 seasons, so the Senators have two big-ticket items locked up for at least the next four seasons. Although Chychrun and his defensive partners have played their off-sides at various times through the season, the organization has never really seemed comfortable locking itself into a long-term vision where one of these players has to play their off-side.
The deadline trade market was not exactly brimming with quality NHL defencemen, but a trade never materialized.
If we look at the glass half-full perspective, the trade deadline was characterized by being a buyer’s market. When good players are being moved for pennies on the dollar, it is hard to blame Staios for holding onto his most valuable assets past the deadline. That Staios refrained from making a deal for the sake of it could be encouraging. Unlike his predecessor, he prefers not to force things. Staios exhibits patience and a willingness to wait the market out.
The general manager has remained steadfast in his disappointment that Chychrun’s name was out in the public sphere, but he should now have a firm grasp of the defenceman’s market value.
That may not seem like a big thing at this juncture, but considerable value lies in developing lines of communication and gauging the worth of his players now before a critical offseason.
That won’t quell much of the frustration plaguing this fan base. It does speak to a maturity and patience that often is not characteristic of a rookie general manager. Hell, it hasn’t been atypical of the Senators front office in quite some time.
It made for a boring trade deadline, but this summer has a laundry list of items needing resolution. This team’s core will be put under a lens. A decision on Jakob Chychrun’s future will have to be made. The organization needs a quality NHL goaltender and should examine the impacts of a Joonas Korpisalo buyout. Management also publicly acknowledged the need to add quality veteran characters to the mix. The Senators have added good teammates before, but the organization has historically struggled to add ones who can also play effectively. For this team to take the next step, adding talented insulating pieces while working under the tight constraints of the cap will be paramount.
It may take Staios longer than we hoped to put his stamp on this team and give us some transactions to analyze. Have some patience, Sens fans. It is coming.
Teams Calling on Bernard-Docker
Bruce Garrioch indicated in a post-deadline piece that the Senators received calls on Jacob Bernard-Docker. According to the Postmedia writer, “teams weren’t willing to pay the asking price and the club wasn’t in a rush to deal him.”
Bernard-Docker cleared waivers in the fall when the season as the Senators cut their numbers down, but has appeared in 53 games this season averaging 15:30 of ice time.
The right-shot defenceman emerged as a regular once the blue line ran into some injury problems, but has played at a replacement level value.
His on-ice impacts have been limited at both ends of the ice as well, per HockeyViz.
Looking ahead to Ottawa’s offseason, some of the easiest gains to make on the roster will be to replace the almost 1,500 minutes of ice time that Travis Hamonic and JBD have played. The organizationally obviously has to go out and acquire improvements, which can be costly, but even if the team makes modest improvements at the right defence position, it will be a marked improvement over the contributions of these depth players.
With JBD’s pedigree, NHL experience and age, there may be some hesitation to move on from the former prospect, but at his age, there’s a good chance that what we are watching now may be all we should expect of the player.
So, keeping that in mind, if there are other teams out there in the league that are intrigued enough, JBD’s exactly the kind of asset the Senators could use to target an older and more efficient player.
I will admit that I was of the school of thought that the Senators shouldn't have folded their hand so quickly on Tarasenko, calling bluffs (both Florida and Tarasenko) after all a late 3rd plus a 4th rounder (or even two late 3rd rounders if conditions are met) only have the value of about one mid-3rd round pick (a pittance). I thought "don't show weakness and demonstrate you won't cave-in in the future". However, Graeme here, and Wayne Scanlan in another article are giving me pause for thought. This philosophy of "do the player right" is what I failed to consider. Maybe this is a tangible thing where players and their agents will say Ottawa is a good place to conduct business, and if not Tarasenko again this summer, maybe somebody else will sign as a result.
What if they had waived Tarasenko a couple of days earlier after FL. wouldn't offer more? The gain would have been the 50% retention instead of 3rd & 4th round picks. The $s could have been applied to the free agent search in summer.