Steve Staios has finally pulled the trigger on his first deal as the general manager of the Ottawa Senators.
Retaining 50 percent of Vladimir Tarasenko’s contract, he sent the Russian winger to the Florida Panthers for a 2025 third-round pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick to Ottawa. If the Panthers win the Cup, the 2024 fourth-round pick will become a 2026 third-round pick.
The return feels pretty light.
Earlier this week the Capitals acquired a second-round pick in 2024 and a fourth-round pick in 2026 from the Golden Knights for Anthony Mantha, so it felt like an approximation of what the Senators could expect for Tarasenko.
On the surface, the numbers were close.
Tarasenko scored 17 goals and 41 points in 57 games for the Senators while Mantha had 20 goals and 34 points in 56 games.
Their contracts were similar too. Both players were in the last year of their respective deals with Mantha’s carrying a slightly higher average annual value ($5.7M) than Tarasenko’s ($5.0M).
Under the hood, however, Mantha was the more impactful all-around player.
Tarasenko brings smore to the table as an offensive player and playmaker, but Mantha was a vastly superior defensive player. In fact, most of the positive value Tarasenko creates through his offence is undermined by how much he gives up at the other end.
Evolving-Hockey’s data listed Mantha as being worth 14.2 ‘goals above replacement’ (GAR) value and 2.3 ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR). In contrast, Tarasenko has accrued 2.3 GAR and 0.4 WAR respectively.
This accompanying feeling of disappointment is understandable.
Looking at some historical data and draft analysis by Jokke Nevalainen from 2020, players taken in the first two rounds of a draft have a significantly higher likelihood of playing NHL games than players taken later.
According to Novelainen’s research, players taken in the first round are almost three times as likely to play more than 99 games than a third-round pick. The probabilities of a draft pick panning out wane considerably after the first round.
It would have been more beneifical to land a higher draft selection than two middle-round draft selections, but Staios was victimized by the likelihood that Tarasenko’s preferred destination of choice was Florida. Armed with a full no-movement clause, Tarasenko was in full control of where he wanted to go.
The Senators could have played hardball with Tarasenko and the Panthers to call their bluff — waiting until deadline day in hopes that the player expanded his list or that the team would improve its offer. This assumes that Tarasenko would have expanded his list or that the Panthers would not have pivoted to other alternatives.
Rather than risk being left with nothing at the deadline, they moved the asset now. The feeling of disappointment is understandable. With it being Staios’ first deal, fans were hoping for an unmistakable win to instill confidence and placate whatever concerns existed that this franchise is in good hands moving forward.
That obviously did not happen.
If we are going to gain valuable insights into this organization’s process and ability to operate shrewdly, we may have to wait for a prospective Jakob Chychrun to happen.
Today’s trade was simply a byproduct of a general manager getting around the mistakes of his predecessor. Tarasenko was never a great fit for the Senators and his no-movement clause handcuffed the organization’s ability to maximimize his trade value at the deadline.
Be grateful though, Ottawa.
As I joked on ‘X’, the Senators disclosed Tarasenko’s no-movement clause, so that’s a win in itself right there. The organization also avoided a regrettable Mathieu Joseph trade to create the cap flexibility to sign Shane Pinto.
Ended up really liking Vladdy in Ottawa and hope he wins another Cup in Florida. Agree that he wasn't a natural fit for the roster in the first place and that Staios's hands were tied. He also has the same agent as Brady/Norris so I doubt he was really going to try to hold his feet to the fire.
Biggest question in my mind is what we're going to do with our D corps and goalie situation. Feel like those have been big questions for years now.
Well reasoned take on what turned out to be a minor deal all round. Tarasenko is a very personable player and fans seemed to bond to him, but as you make clear, a player with warts and not a good fit for Ottawa's needs.