The Nick Jensen Dip and the Senators' Calculated Gamble

One of my suspicions is that during the early stages of the unrestricted free agent courting process, it became clear to Senators management that they did not have a realistic chance of landing any of their preferred right defence targets.

After the 34-year-old Chris Tanev inked a six-year, $27 million contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Matt Roy signed a six-year, $34.5 million pact with the Washington Capitals, the Senators were put in a more difficult position.

We will probably never get an answer from the Senators’ front office regarding whether the organization had the wherewithal to commit that much money and term to either of these players. It is possible that the Senators’ interest in either player was never reciprocated.

Had the Senators been able to sign a quality right defenceman to an efficient contract, that would have been ideal. Money in a cap system is finite, so it does place a ton of inherent value on efficiency, but there is another added layer of value by not having to trade roster pieces, prospects or draft picks to fill holes.

With limited and less desirable options available on the open market, the Senators did not have that luxury and were forced to pivot to Nick Jensen.

Earlier this offseason, I wrote about Jensen and some of the risks that the Senators were taking on.

“Not only was last season his least impactful season from an underlying numbers perspective, but it represented his least impactful season on the surface too.

In 78 games for the Capitals last season, Jensen scored one goal and added 13 assists.

The good news is that both Jensen and Perron are just one year removed from being good players. The Senators paid a handsome price to acquire both players, but the organization has to hope that these respective down years are blips and not part of some larger age-related decline. If both Perron and Jensen can play at their 2022-23 levels, the Senators will come out of these moves looking quite well.

If they don’t, the Senators could look foolish for investing significant money and assets to acquire two aging players coming off down years where they were on the wrong side of the expected goal outcomes.”

I have spent more time looking at Jensen’s history and one of the more obvious points is that the Washington Capitals appear to be a team on the decline.

Since compiling 100 points during the 2020-21 season (44-26-12), the Capitals have underwhelmed in their last two putting up 80 and 91 points respectively. They were one of the Eastern Conference’s wild card teams last season, but they were one of two clubs to reach the postseason while having a negative goal differential.

The underlying metrics help emphasize the slide.

For years this organization would outshoot, outchance and outscore the opposition at five-on-five. In each of the last two seasons, that failed to happen.

From Evolving-Hockey:

Whether it was the rate of goals, shots, shots on goal or expected goals, the Capitals are on the decline.

One natural explanation for that is a function of an aging roster. Entering the 2023-24 season, the Capitals were the fifth-oldest team in the league.

Any time a team experiences a drop in performance it will have a residual impact on its individual players. For a defensive defenceman like Jensen, it should not surprise to see his numbers and impact suffer.

Another important consideration is how the quality of Jensen’s defensive partners has changed over the last two seasons.

According to NaturalStatTrick’s data, Jensen spent the majority of the season playing with Dmitry Orlov. The duo logged over 900 minutes together at five-on-five. When they were on the ice together, the Capitals generated 51.07 percent of the shots (CF%), 53.02 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 69.01 percent of the goals (GF%) and 53.44 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).

The following season, Jensen’s ice time was split between Orlov (470:55) and rookie Martin Fehervary (519:54). The Capitals’ performance with Orlov and Jensen together took a dip from the 2021-22 season, but was still greater than 50 percent on the shot and expected goal metrics. Orlov was eventually at the 2023 trade deadline. With Fehervary, every Capitals shot and goal metric fell below that threshold.

During the 2023-24 season, Jensen failed to have a regular partner.

He played more than 100 minutes with five defencemen:

• Rasmus Sandin (391:20)

• Joel Edmunson (338:22)

• Martin Fehervary (166:00)

• Alexander Alexeyev (152:56)

• Trevor van Riemsdyk (128:09)

Except for his pairing with van Riemsdyk, Jensen’s numbers suffered across the board — barely generating more than 40 percent of the shots and goals.

In Ottawa, Jensen will have an opportunity to play with a skilled puck-mover. After a strong defensive showing from the Jake Sanderson-Artem Zub duo, the expectation is that Thomas Chabot will be earmarked as Jensen’s partner.

Orlov and Jensen did not become regular partners until the 2019-20 season, but the best version of Orlov that Jensen benefited from was in 2021-22. That season Orlov compiled the most defensive value of his career (per Evolving-Hockey) to that point while producing strong ‘goals above replacement’ (9.8 GAR) and ‘wins above replacement’ value (1.7 WAR). Those figures mirror the value that Chabot created in 2023-24, even though he played in 25 fewer games.

Barring an injury, even if Chabot plays at his 2023-24 level for a full season, he will represent the most valuable defenceman that Jensen has ever played with.

Any concerns that Jensen’s decline can be attributed to an age-related decline for a player entering his mid-30s are reasonable. Thankfully, defensive aptitude and results tend to age more gracefully than offensive production, but Senators management will be banking on Chabot’s talent to help Jensen recover from the dip he experienced last season. But, if Chabot can return to the levels of play he exhibited during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, look out.

It will mean that the organization will have two strong two-way pairings for the first time since 2006.