The Senators are armed with the highest overall pick they have had in possession since the famed 2020 NHL Draft which brought Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson into their coffers. To say this is an important draft for the organization would be an understatement. The Senators have depth throughout the system, but the quality of its prospects took a natural hit with the graduation of its best prospects to the parent roster. Tyler Boucher’s unfortunate inability to stay healthy and two separate trades that moved a top-12 pick in the last two years’ drafts have compounded this problem.
One more model question, does it include any measument of defensive qualities? For example, Sanderson may or may not outscore Chabot over the next few seasons, but there is little doubt that he will "out-defend" him.
This draft should be a good chance to get a better feel for the new front office's philosophy and priorities.I am totally with Byron on the idea that the Sens should go for who they think are the best players available with their first and second round picks.
Regarding the Dorion era, if the new front office really wants to surpass it then what is going to be important is getting something useful out of their 3 4th rounders and other later picks. Based on your WAR analysis, Dorion/Mann did fine with early picks (on average) and Staios and his team will hopefully match that. It will be in the later rounds where Staios could pull ahead and hopefully, Tierney et al will help him do that.
Most of the same comps come up for Parekh, Yakemchuk and Levshunov. This caught me by surprise given the seeming differences between the players. Is the model just projecting how many points they will get in the NHL?
"Our model goes all the way back to 1990, with over 6,000 players in total. By comparing the offensive production of all players during that time we found a pattern, which shows how a players’ scoring production, normalized by league, along with the rate they develop, can predict which players will succeed and/or thrive at the NHL level. The history in the model also allows us to provide comparisons to existing and former players, to show you whose career a prospect might be mimicking."
So, yes. It focuses on the offensive side of the puck.
Great piece Graeme. One of your best. My take — has to be a D-man and I’m learning Parekh and then Yakenchk, but could get excited by all six of them. Parekh very fun to watch.
Lots of comments/questions from me today. Thanks for the thought provoking article and keep up the interesting writing!
One more model question, does it include any measument of defensive qualities? For example, Sanderson may or may not outscore Chabot over the next few seasons, but there is little doubt that he will "out-defend" him.
I believe I covered this in my other reply, but let me know if you have other questions. Thanks for reading!
This draft should be a good chance to get a better feel for the new front office's philosophy and priorities.I am totally with Byron on the idea that the Sens should go for who they think are the best players available with their first and second round picks.
Regarding the Dorion era, if the new front office really wants to surpass it then what is going to be important is getting something useful out of their 3 4th rounders and other later picks. Based on your WAR analysis, Dorion/Mann did fine with early picks (on average) and Staios and his team will hopefully match that. It will be in the later rounds where Staios could pull ahead and hopefully, Tierney et al will help him do that.
Most of the same comps come up for Parekh, Yakemchuk and Levshunov. This caught me by surprise given the seeming differences between the players. Is the model just projecting how many points they will get in the NHL?
The model is explained as follows:
"Our model goes all the way back to 1990, with over 6,000 players in total. By comparing the offensive production of all players during that time we found a pattern, which shows how a players’ scoring production, normalized by league, along with the rate they develop, can predict which players will succeed and/or thrive at the NHL level. The history in the model also allows us to provide comparisons to existing and former players, to show you whose career a prospect might be mimicking."
So, yes. It focuses on the offensive side of the puck.
Great piece Graeme. One of your best. My take — has to be a D-man and I’m learning Parekh and then Yakenchk, but could get excited by all six of them. Parekh very fun to watch.