Weekend Round Up: Staios Named POHO, Lassi Claimed on Waivers, Lowballing Pinto
One of the worst-kept secrets in Ottawa was finally revealed yesterday.
After months of speculation linking Steve Staios to the Ottawa Senators, it took one week from Michael Andlauer’s introductory press conference to announce that Staios would become the organization’s president of hockey operations.
Staios joins the Senators after serving as a special assistant to general manager Ken Holland in Edmonton. Before that, he was the president of Andlauer’s OHL Hamilton Bulldogs for seven seasons and the general manager for six. The Bulldogs were two-time OHL Champions in 2017-18 and 2021-22. He also spent two years in the Toronto Maple Leafs organization as the manager of player development.
For the first time in Pierre Dorion’s tenure as general manager, he no longer directly reports to the owner or to the team’s board of directors. An intermediary is now in place, who will hold Dorion accountable for his work.
It is a welcomed change.
After the seven and a half years that Dorion has enjoyed relative autonomy and absolute power, checks and balances have finally arrived.
In the first steps of growing the front office, it is crystal clear that Andlauer has brought in individuals from his past. Dorion does not represent an Andlauer hire. He was inherited from the unpopular Melnyk era and now finds himself surrounded in the front office by individuals Andlauer is loyal to and has enjoyed success with.
It is no wonder the image of Andlauer and Staios being huddled together on Friday night while Dorion was off on his own in the background was getting the meme treatment.
This feels like the first instance when Dorion’s job has been truly threatened. The natural assumption is that Dorion’s days are numbered, but Staios downplayed any concerns about the general manager’s immediate future at his introductory press conference.
“The only thing that’s changed for Pierre is that he’s got more support with me to collaborate on ideas and execute moving forward. I’m here to support him on the day-to-day.”
…
“It’s exciting to hear his thoughts and philosophies. The relationship will be collaborative.”
A willingness to offer support is more than many probably expected. No one will dispute that the strength of Dorion’s body of work is rooted exclusively in his responsibility for drafting and signing the team’s young core to long-term extensions.
A deeper evaluation can allude to his spotty trade record and free agent signings — a pattern of targeting the wrong players, at the wrong time. Given the volume of valuable picks the Senators have had, it is also fair to critique how much prospect value the organization actually added. Add it all together and it helps explain why a rebuilding organization that has not made the postseason in six years is pressed up against the cap ceiling and does not have enough financial flexibility to sign Shane Pinto and get him into camp.
Dorion’s put himself in a difficult position with some mounting pressures, but his proponents have long argued that his shortcomings are not born out of incompetence. They are simply a byproduct of a general manager who largely operated under an owner who was widely recognized as one of the worst in North American professional sports.
Working under a mercurial micro-manager would have been difficult at the best of times, but Dorion also had to do it while working with very few resources.
During Staios’ press conference, Dorion alluded to those difficulties.
“It’s no secret that in the past, I’ve begged almost for help. Getting Steve in with his acumen, I think it bodes well for us moving forward.”
There is certainly an element of truth there. Not every organization can be the Toronto Maple Leafs. But, funneling more money into amateur and professional scouting is desirable. As is hiring more employees with divergent opinions and backgrounds who can flesh out more encompassing analyses and evaluations.
At the same time, it is easy to recognize that these same shortcomings — Eugene Melnyk and a lack of available resources — are precisely the same reasons that led to Dorion becoming the team’s general manager and enduring these past seven years.
I do not know if it is a great look for Dorion to publicly lean into not having more resources, especially when his performance is probably under review.
Being desperate for staff is one thing, but Pierre McGuire lasted one year as the team’s senior vice president of player development. Daniel Alfredsson bolted after two years of being a senior adviser of hockey operations. Peter MacTavish spent almost four years as the team’s assistant general manager before moving on to Quartexx Management. Assistant general manager Trent Mann was formally dismissed this past July after spending 12 seasons with the organization.
Ottawa’s front office has had lots of moving parts over the years, but it has rarely grown. In the instances where it had, it was short-lived. Considering the circumstances, it is baffling that the organization did not lean into analytics. Rather than allocating hundreds of thousands of dollars toward some AHL veteran in Belleville, that money could have been earmarked for an in-house analytics department that could have helped the front office mitigate the risks and avoid some easily identifiable mistakes.
Regardless of how anyone feels about Dorion, it sounds like he is going to be given a chance to operate, at least in the interim, with more resources at his disposal. It remains to be seen whether these new voices will ultimately change Dorion’s fate, but his next move, an important one to clear salary for Pinto, will be his first under this larger hockey ops umbrella.
First Impressions
Senators media availabilities have always been a double-edged sword for the better part of the last 20 years. You never knew what words would impulsively fly out of Eugene Melnyk’s mouth. It was equal parts entertainment and equal parts unfiltered cringe material. From a writing standpoint, I would look forward to the interviews and transcriptions because the ‘Thoughts in Bold’ pieces wrote themselves. It was easy content creation. Hockey fans from inside and outside this city just wanted to see what the owner would say next.
As the other face of the franchise, Pierre Dorion’s media availabilities have never really elicited much confidence. When he ascended to the role of general manager in 2016, his interviews always felt awkward. At first, I believed it was a function of English being his second language and that it would take time for him to grow into the role and adjust to the limelight and public demands of his position.
That awkwardness has never really gone away.
Early on in his tenure, he fell victim to self-inflicted damage by overhyping and underdelivering. He has certainly learned from the Mark Stone trade debacle — which he described that day as his proudest day as a general manager — because he has been unwilling to go on record with a belief that the Senators need to make the playoffs. His attempts to maintain a relaxed or overly friendly disposition during press conferences have rarely felt genuine.
It comes across like he is trying too hard to be something that he is not - like being a comedian. If he was funny, it would not be a problem. But, Dorion’s jokes land less often than an Austin Watson punch.
The good news is that one of Dorion’s biggest weaknesses can be mitigated by the presence of Staios. The Senators now have someone they can confidently put in front of a microphone without having any fears that he could say too much or say something that would reflect poorly on the organization.
In his first availability, Staios came off very well. He exudes poise and professionalism. On social media, I had some followers try and downplay the attention and praise being given to Andlauer and Staios. I certainly understand the fact that both individuals just arrived and we have nothing to measure against them, but after enduring everything that has been thrown this fan base’s way, they should be allowed to bask in the glory knowing this regime represents a significant shift from its predecessor.
Lassi Thomson Claimed on Waivers
The writing was on the wall that Lassi Thomson’s days with the Senators were numbered this past offseason when the organization agreed to terms with Travis Hamonic on a two-year contract extension.
With a veteran placeholder in front of him and another prospect in Jacob Bernard-Docker vying for NHL minutes on the right side, Thomson’s path to regular minutes was muddied.
Through the preseason, Thomson’s numbers were actually decent. When he was on the ice at five-on-five, the Senators generated 57.41 percent of the shots (CF%), 60.00 percent of the goals and 52.54 percent of the expected goals per NaturalStatTrick. Of course, we are talking about a very small sample size of games here against lower calibres of NHL competition, but it certainly looked and seemed like he was outplaying some of his peers who are still with the team.
Given his pedigree and the fact that organizations are always looking for right-shot defencemen, when the Senators placed Thomson, the 19th overall pick from the 2021 NHL Draft, on waivers, it felt like a foregone conclusion he would be scooped up. So, when the Anaheim Ducks made a successful claim on Sunday, it did not come as a surprise.
Seeing a first-round pick exit without returning the organization an asset will always feel like a blow. Not surprisingly, it was met with some consternation by some decrying the team’s asset management. The natural assumption is that management would have exhausted the trade market before placing him on waivers. That’s basic due diligence, so given their knowledge of Thomson’s waiver status, it feels offputting to blame management for not fetching any kind of return. If a team that was lower in the waiver priority order wanted Thomson, they easily could have submitted an offer knowing that a team below them could have put in a successful claim.
The Senators could be guilty of holding onto the prospect for too long. It obviously sucks to draft and develop a first-round and not have him bring or create any additional value, but like other first-round talents that moved on, his departure will probably fuel some debate as to whether it was a talent issue or an opportunity issue.
It was probably both, but even from his draft year, the likelihood of Thomson developing into something based on his statistical comps was not very high. HockeyProspecting’s comparison tool believed that Thomson had a 50 percent chance of developing into an NHLer with only an eight percent star probability. His draft-year comps were not particularly flattering with the best outcomes ranging from replacement level talents to an average NHL pro like Carlo Colaiacovo.
In the years since those star and NHLer probabilities have tailed off and in Anaheim, Thomson should get an opportunity to establish himself as an NHL regular. In waiving him, Ottawa is sending the message that it clearly prefers an established player (Hamonic) without upside than take a chance that Thomson can be his equivalent now or can grow to outperform him.
Batherson’s Preseason
After recording four points in Sunday’s 4-2 victory over the Florida Panthers, the results finally went Drake Batherson’s way.
Despite having one lonely assist through his first two preseason games, I thought Batherson looked exceptional. It felt like he was more assertive in the defensive zone, he was physical and when the puck was on his stick, he was dangerous or putting his teammates in opportune spots. It never really manifested in results, but he looked like the 2021-22 version of himself. The same one that played at a near point-per-game clip and would have landed him at the All-Star Game if not for the actions of a minor league goalie.
Alex DeBrincat may have been getting all the attention for his bad luck last season while Pierre Dorion trying to drive up his trade market, but Batherson led the Senators hitting 12 posts last season. Only Buffalo’s Tage Thomson (15) had more.
If Batherson can stay healthy, maintain this level of play and enjoy better luck, he will be poised to have a career year.
Pinto Negotiations
Elliotte Friedman broke the news that the Senators offered Shane Pinto a one-year contract at $1 million.
The gulf between the Ottawa Senators and restricted free agent Shane Pinto widened this week. According to several sources, the player was disappointed with a recent offer in the one-year, $1M range.
No shit.
Pinto is coming off a season in which he scored 20 goals and was one of the team’s best defensive forwards. Evolving-Hockey’s total defence (DEF) metric that combines the five-on-five and shorthanded contributions of a player into one stat had Pinto creating the most defensive value amongst the team’s forwards in 2022-23.
After watching the rest of the team’s young players be taken care of by management, it would be irritating to see the team take a harder-line stance with these negotiations. Pinto and his representatives are not stupid though, they obviously recognize the position the Senators have put themselves in and have to realize that until salary is cleared, the team cannot fit Pinto in.
Much has been made about Pinto’s lack of negotiating leverage because he has no arbitration rights and is ineligible for an offer sheet, but what leverage he has is created by knowing that the Senators cannot afford to get off to a bad start. As a valuable depth player, Pinto is one of the few players at the bottom of the lineup who can be relied upon to provide some secondary scoring.
He also has the benefit of optics.
It is not his fault that Pierre Dorion mismanaged his roster and cap space and it is finally coming back to haunt the organization. Offering Pinto $1 million for a year with the offer of re-engaging in contract negotiations come January to arrive at a friendlier extension for the player is an admission that you are lowballing the player now.
It’s an insult.
As I joked on ‘X’ this morning, there is not even a guarantee that Dorion will remain in his role until January. And, as Tyler Ray (@defenseminister) astutely pointed out, this idea of making good on a lowball offer with an offer of riches down the road puts the player at a disadvantage. Would the organization honour that promise if Pinto gets hurt or sees his production suffer while playing on the third line?
The player in this situation is inheriting all of the risk.
Pinto should not have to do the organization a solid so its general manager can finesse its cap situation. If money was tight, perhaps they should have reallocated their money more efficiently this offseason instead of relying on a cut-and-paste/fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants philosophy that has permeated Dorion’s brain.
Other News and Notes:
Former assistant general manager Trent Mann landed quickly on his feet. The Pittsburgh Penguins announced that he joined Kyle Dubas’ staff as their player development and scouting advisor.
Josh Norris is being held out of tonight’s game against the Penguins in Halifax. The centre’s plan to get into two preseason games can still work, but he will need to play in the Senators’ final two preseason games later this week. Obviously, the uncertainty over Norris’ health is going to foster concerns, but there is still time for him to get into games.
The blue line for tonight’s game against the Penguins will feature Ottawa’s projected top three pairs: Jakob Chychrun and Thomas Chabot; Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub; and Erik Brannstrom and Travis Hamonic.