Wednesday News and Notes: Performance under Jacques, Korpisalo, Pinto Extension
The Senators' stats have been panned since Jacques Martin took over as the interim head coach on December 18th.
Their 4-9-0 record is abysmal, but the Senators and Sharks have allowed a league-worst 58 goals since the change. However, the Senators have played in one fewer game, so their 4.46 goals allowed per game stand alone as the worst.
Using NaturalStatTrick’s data, it is easy to recognize that their underlying five-on-five shot and goal data are equally unimpressive.
64.50 shots allowed per 60 minutes (CA/60), 24th
33.88 shots on goal allowed per 60 (SA/60), 31st
13.82 high-danger shots allowed per 60 (HDCA/60), 32nd
31.58 scoring chances allowed per 60 (SCA/60), 28th
3.94 goals allowed per 60 (GA/60), 32nd
3.07 expected goals allowed per 60 (xGA/60), 32nd
Martin was brought in to be a stabilizing presence whose ability to teach structure and team defence was designed to bring more accountability to a group that freelanced for too long.
A 13-game sample is still small enough not to draw many conclusions from, but when the context of the Senators playing every second night is added, expecting anyone to come in and spur immediate change was naive. Undoing years of bad habits takes time.
In saying that, all anyone wants to see is a pulse when a team is flatlining like they have. And, well, we might have something here. At least, speaking strictly from a five-on-five perspective.
In three of the team’s last four games, the Senators have generated greater than 58 percent of the expected goals. Just as importantly, the rate of five-on-five shots allowed, chances, and expected goals that the Senators have allowed have gone down.
In their last three games against Buffalo, San Jose and Colorado, the Senators allowed rates of 55.12, 40.45, and 57.20 shots per 60. They were the three lowest rates of the Jacques Martin era. Across these four consecutive games, the team had an expected goals allowed mark below 3.0.
Granted, the games were not perfect and the Sharks and Sabres represent two of the league’s weaker opponents. Still, the Avalanche are a good club and the Senators had a 4-2 lead more than halfway through the game before the wheels fell off in the third. Even if it’s just a small sample, the underlying numbers are improving, so it’s easy to hope that the team is finally starting to turn the corner. Then again, when the season is swirling the drain, we are all desperately needing to see progress being made on the defensive side of the puck.
Small victories.
Korpisalo’s Struggles
Jacques Martin stirred the pot by naming Mads Sogaard as the starter in advance of last night’s game against the Avalanche.
“I feel that we have a better chance of winning with the kid going in net,” explained Martin.
It is hard to blame Martin for feeling that way.
By any measure, Joonas Korpisalo has underperformed.
Of the goaltenders who have appeared in more than 10 games, Korpisalo has the sixth-worst save percentage (.884 SV%) and the fourth-worst goals against average (3.70 GAA). The 8-15-0 record is pedestrian but buoyed by the fact that the Senators have given him goal support of 3.20 goals per 60.
The Finn has the third-worst goals saved above expected rating (-12.55 GSAx) in the league trailing only Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek. Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Goals Above Replacement’ (GAR) and ‘Wins Above Replacement’ (WAR) statistical models try to measure a player's value by combining his performance into one encompassing number. While not perfect, these metrics attempt to determine how much more valuable a player is to a replacement-level player at his same position. By both metrics, Korpisalo has been the least valuable player in the league at his position this season.
The Senators’ struggles at the goaltending position are not exclusive to Korpisalo. Anton Forsberg has endured his share of them as well.
Paying the price for their respective performance was goaltending coach Zac Bierk. He was reassigned by the organization to scouting and development while Justin Peters was promoted from Belleville.
The goaltending in Belleville has been impressive.
Before being recalled, the aforementioned Sogaard was off to a great start this season. He compiled an 8-5-2 record and two shutouts on the strength of a .920 save percentage.
Kevin Mandolese and Leevi Merilainen have also maintained save percentages greater than .900. The quality of performance down on the farm has been noticeable, so the fresh voice and perspective of Peters will be allowed to help salvage the seasons of the veterans in Ottawa.
Pinto Extension
There are lots of rumblings about the possibility of a Shane Pinto extension.
He is expected to sign a relatively inexpensive one-year contract to play out the remainder of the 2023-24 season, but Bruce Garrioch reported during last night’s broadcast that the Senators have tabled two, four, five and six-year extensions for the centre.
If you are wondering why the Senators are only looking at those lengths of term, a two-year deal will take Pinto to his last year of restricted free agency. The remaining term possibilities of four, five and six years would begin to buy up his first few seasons of unrestricted free-agent status.
Once Pinto signs a one-year deal, inking him to an extension would be some tidy business. Having missed the first half of the season due to an undisclosed off-ice gambling issue, Pinto’s value will never be lower than it is right now.
As a competent goal scorer who provided some of the best two-way play amongst Senators forwards last season, he is a quality and valued depth piece that the Senators can move forward with.