Trio of Losses: Edmonton, Forsberg MCL Surgeries, and Sanderson Out
Saturday afternoon’s 6-3 loss to the Edmonton Oilers was a devastating game with considerable short and medium-term implications.
Not only did it kill the momentum of a four-game win streak and effectively shelve its postseason aspirations, Anders Forsberg and Jake Sanderson suffered injuries that will inevitably impact how management approaches the trade deadline and potentially the offseason.
The Senators sit 10 points back of the Pittsburgh Penguins with one game in hand, but with injuries to two significant players at critical positions, the odds of Ottawa putting together an extended run just got worse.
The good news is that Jake Sanderson’s upper-body injury will only keep him out of the lineup for the next 10 to 14 days per general manager Pierre Dorion. The bad news is that the timeline for Anton Forsberg is much worse. The goaltender suffered a torn MCL in each of his knees and will miss the remainder of the 2022-23 season.
Forsberg's injury, coupled with Cam Talbot's groin injury puts the team in a position wherein they no longer have a veteran goaltender available to them in the short-term. The Senators are hopeful Talbot returns soon, but for the interim, they will run with a Mads Soogard and Kevin Mandolese tandem.
Neither player has been particularly effective playing behind a Belleville lineup that has been decimated by injury.
Sogaard has compiled a 6-9-2 record in 21 appearances. If the young Dane's .898 save percentage and 3.30 goals against average are pedestrian, it makes Mandolese's numbers look even worse. The 2019-20 QMJHL first-team all-star has recorded an .879 save percentage and a goals against average of 3.60 to go along with a 4-7-2 record in 17 games.
The numbers certainly don't inspire confidence.
This organization has never entrusted its young goaltenders to run with the ball. Whenever injuries have beset the position, Pierre Dorion would go out and acquire Mike Condon, Anders Nilsson, and Anton Forsberg.
Based on this history, Forsberg’s injury probably means the team will hold onto Cam Talbot past the NHL trade deadline — despite the fact that Talbot is an unrestricted free agent and some playoff teams like Vegas have some injury concerns of their own. Whether Pierre Dorion will try and bolster the position by moving a draft pick or using a waiver claim to add some short-term depth remains to be seen. Interestingly, the Vancouver Canucks placed goaltender Spencer Martin on waivers today as Thatcher Demko is on the cusp of a return.
Martin posted some impressive numbers across a very small sample of games in 2021-22. In six appearances, the goaltender stopped 95 percent of the shots that he faced while posting a 1.72 goals against average. Evolving-Hockey’s data had Martin at 8.9 goals saved above average and 11.35 goals saved above expected.
This season has been absolute nightmare fuel for Martin. Across 29 appearances, he has been one of the worst statistical goaltenders in the entire league. Only Elvis Merzlikins of the Blue Jackets has posted worse goals saved above expected rates than Martin’s (-22.72 GSAx) and Martin has posted the league’s worst goals saved above expected rates per Evolving-Hockey.
If the organization is worried about exposing Sogaard to failure at the NHL level, claiming Martin would make sense. The problem therein is that he has another year left on his one-way contract that will pay him $775,000 regardless of whether he is in Ottawa or Belleville next season.
Projecting forward, ideally, the Senators would prefer for Sogaard and Mandolese to spend another year in Belleville. The organization would obviously prefer the flexibility to go out and acquire a more credible NHL option for the parent club this summer.
Forsberg’s surgeries also raise questions about how much his health will impact his performance next season. Looking around at recent MCL injuries, one of the most recent ones belonged to Frederik Anderson who tore one of his during a playoff game last April. The Carolina goaltender has appeared in 16 games this season while missing 29 games this season due to a lower-body injury. If injuries prevent him from returning to the level that he has exhibited this season, it puts the team at a massive disadvantage.
Even though the financial ramifications for claiming Martin are not earth-shaking, committing almost $1 million in 2023-24 to a player who would only be here to help the Senators through their remaining 31 games this season would be silly — even if a waiver claim would not cost the Senators any draft capital.
On the other hand, the reality is that the likelihood of Pierre Dorion surviving an ownership change is small. Assuming that the hockey operations department is gutted, perhaps Dorion will not care whatsoever about the future implications created by Martin’s contract.
This lingering ownership change does create an interesting dynamic for the organization ahead of the March 3rd trade deadline, however.
As one follower on Twitter pointed out, maybe it makes sense for the Senators to roll the dice on Arizona’s Karel Vejmelka. The 26-year-old is gained for another two seasons at an inexpensive annual average value of $2.725 million.
Arizona will reportedly listen to offers, but it would be risky for the Senators to invest significant future assets in a goaltender who has only one good NHL season under his belt.
And if it is being reported that the organization is willing to wait on new ownership to arrive before making big decisions, one has to wonder how much leeway Dorion has to make significant moves.
Which leads to…
Alex DeBrincat Contract/Trade Talks
During the Hockey Night in Canada’s ‘32 Thoughts’ segment Saturday night, Elliotte Friedman indicated that the team had been fielding calls inquiring about Alex DeBrincat’s availability.
“The Senators have been asked, I believe, about Alex DeBrincat. And, they have indicated they are not trading him at this deadline. I think they want to wait until the new ownership is set up and kind of attack, not trade talks but contract talks then and see where it goes before they even think about exploring the market with him. But, like I heard, they have told teams that asked, they’re not interested in moving DeBrincat.”
If management is leaving the DeBrincat situation to the next group, this would leave me to believe that the player is genuinely interested in wanting to stay here. Otherwise, why wouldn’t the organization entertain offers now assuming the offers that come in are strong enough to at least consider? At the very least, the organization could do its due diligence and make prospective inroads and figure out what may be available in a trade return now or this offseason.
Of course, the assumption in saying that is that Dorion still has the organization’s blessing to go out and make significant changes. We just do not know if that is the case — which makes the lead-up to the March 3rd trade deadline all the more interesting.
More ‘32 Thoughts’
Speaking of ‘32 Thoughts’ segment from this past Saturday night, Elliotte Friedman expressed a belief that Nikita Zaitsev might soon be dealt to an undisclosed Western Conference team.
“There appears to be a path for a Nikita Zaitsev trade. I’m assuming West coast. I don’t know that for certain but I’ve heard some rumblings about it. But, there does seem to be a path for Zaitsev to move.”
Jeff Marek expressed that Austin Watson is another player who might generate some interest.
“Just one more follow-up on the Ottawa Senators as well. For teams looking for some snarl, some toughness, some bit down the stretch for trade deadline. Expect to hear the name Austin Watson out there a little bit more. The Ottawa Senators’ tough forward is on an expiring contract. $1.5 million is the AAV. Look for his name to pop up in trade circles.”
Other News and Notes:
Scott Wheeler updated his ranking of the top 50 drafted NHL prospects who have not lost their rookie eligibility for The Athletic. Only one Senators player made the list and that was Ridly Greig at 49. Wheeler did have some very complimentary things to say about Greig, so it is well worth a read if you have a subscription. The lack of prospects on the list isn’t overly concerning considering how many young players the Senators have graduated in recent years. What it does emphasize however is that the Senators have used a ton of their stockpiled picks drafting safe floor players.