Tkachuk Named Tkaptain & More Thoughts on the Blue Line Shuffle
Through a series of tweets, the Senators revealed one of the most anticipated decisions in recent memory by naming Brady Tkachuk as the 10th captain in this franchise’s history.
For the first time since dealing Erik Karlsson to the San Jose Sharks on September 13, 2018, the Senators will have a captain.
It has been a long three years since that time, but Tkachuk was an obvious candidate from the moment he put on a Senators sweater. Between the physicality, production and work ethic, Tkachuk embodies everything that the Senators have sought after with their player decisions. And off the ice, the blend of his charisma, sense of humour and leadership skills have allowed him to be endeared by teammates and fans alike.
The only wrinkle that could have jeopardized his candidacy was the possibility of him signing a bridge contract. Once he inked his seven-year contract cementing his place in the Senators’ future, it was only a matter of time before the formality of putting a ‘C’ on his jersey was revealed.
Given the Senators’ penchant for making some splashy displays in recent years like Alex Trebek revealing the Tim Stützle draft selection to Tkachuk acknowledging the fans in attendance after signing his contract, it feels like somewhat of a missed opportunity to simply relegate the news to a couple of tweets, but that’s just a minor gripe.
Yesterday was a great day to celebrate the start of a new chapter in Senators history and should be recognized as such.
In his availability yesterday, D.J. Smith alluded to the decision to name a captain necessitated Eugene Melnyk’s involvement.
“Mr. Melnyk was here yesterday and after meeting with Brady,” Smith explained. “(He) was confident that (Brady) was the guy that he wants to lead his organization. Myself and Pierre (Dorion) feel the same.”
Is it weird that the owner needed his own sit-down meeting with the player to sign off on the decision?
Maybe, but Melnyk’s heavily involved in every facet of the organization and he likes to have his say in these personnel matters. Given his comments about the captaincy to Bob McCown and John Shannon earlier in the offseason, everyone should know that the owner has been involved in the process from a very early stage. From what we know of the owner’s actions and behavior in the past, none of this should come as a surprise.
And as an owner, it’s his team. Even if his approval should be a formality because the captaincy should be an informed choice made by the head coach and general manager, we don’t know that Melnyk’s approval wasn’t a formality. Understandably, I get why some fans or pundits may want to point out the weirdness of this to illustrate the point about Melnyk’s involvement, but it is reasonable to believe that this may have simply been an owner who wanted to be present for the occasion and congratulate Tkachuk himself.
Breaking Up Chabot and Zub
After being outscored 15-6 over the team’s last three games, D.J. Smith vowed to look at shaking up his lineup following the team’s 5-1 loss to Vegas on Thursday night.
In the same media availability that I referenced earlier, D.J Smith confirmed that he would be mixing up the defensive pairings.
“Zub and Chabot have been really good together, but we’re not getting the results. At the end of the day, it’s not about one or two guys or five guys putting up points, it’s about us winning games. If you’re not winning, you have to change and that’s what we’re doing. We’re going to try and split it up. I think Zub and (Victor) Mete can provide some ability to move pucks and also defend. And, I think Zaitsev has played his best with Chabot. We think he’s an elite defender and we’re going to put them back together and see what happens.”
Having written about the Senators’ defensive situation and why it is more advantageous to keep Chabot and Zub together and look at other alternatives, the Senators believe that splitting up their best defencemen gives them a better chance to have success.
It makes for some interesting debate. Personally, I’d rather have one pairing (Chabot-Zub) that should perform well more often than not and hope that one (or ideally, both) of the other pairings can muster up decent results. To me, that’s more desirable than risk watering down or dragging the performance of the team’s best two defenders.
I believe Zaitsev creates positive contributions through his ability to defend. Using Evolving-Hockey’s data that looks at the past three seasons, Zaitsev’s ‘Total Defence’ (DEF) metric is 3.4 and is tied for the 83rd highest rate amongst defencemen over that time. He creates positive contributions through his defensive play, but even if the coaching staff believes those contributions are “elite”, these efforts are undermined by the rest of his play.
Evolving-Hockey’s data indicates that Zaitsev is tied for being the 21st least valuable defenceman by WAR ( -0.8 wins above replacement) and the 24th least valuable by GAR (-4.7 goals above replacement) over the same three-year period.
Zaitsev not only sinks his own value, but he has a tendency to drag the performance of those that he plays with. To this point in the season, Chabot’s been one of the most valuable defencemen in the league and it’s been driven largely by his ability to effectively move the puck up the ice.
In Shayna Goldman’s most recent contribution to Sportsnet, she identified the best puck-moving defencemen in the league.
By giving Zaitsev more minutes and more responsibility, Smith is risking the likelihood of more negative results. Thomas Chabot is at his best when he’s getting the puck quickly and is allowed to drive play up the ice. If he’s spending more of his minutes defending in his own end, it makes him less impactful.
What the decision to split up Chabot and Zub ultimately boils down to is management’s inability to surround these two players with defensive talent. It also speaks to this coach’s disinterest in dressing two undersized puck movers in Erik Brannstrom and Victor Mete in the same lineup. This in itself is interesting given Smith’s reflections on the importance of a winning lineup.
The Senators’ most successful stretch last season came when the team dressed its best puck-moving defencemen regularly, but that has not happened this season. This team is losing regularly with the bigger defencemen that Smith obviously prefers and it is reminiscent of the start of the 2020-21 season.