Thoughts on a Big Two Games, Renting a Defenceman, Norris' Return, and the Prospect Pool
Sitting nine points back of the Pittsburgh Penguins and the second wild card slot in the Eastern Conference’s playoff race, this week’s slate of games for the Senators carries vast implications.
Dropping their Monday night game to the St. Louis Blues was less than ideal, but back-to-back games against the Pittsburgh Penguins present an opportunity for the Senators to salvage their week and put a dent into the lead of one of the teams ahead of them.
Six teams rest between the Senators and a wild card spot and although there’s half a season left of games, the Senators are running out of runway to catch the teams near the top. A split of the Pittsburgh games or two losses will put the season to bed and give the Penguins an insurmountable 13-point cushion.
These next two games will either break Ottawa’s already small chances or provide a sliver of hope that the team can find a way to claw its way back into the mix. And this is all without even mentioning the team’s tough matchup with the Winnipeg Jets at home on Saturday following the team’s return from Friday’s game in Pittsburgh.
Norris’ Return
After the Senators waived Jake Lucchini yesterday, the expectation is that Josh Norris will make his long-anticipated return from the shoulder injury he sustained during the team’s October 22nd game against the Coyotes.
Although Norris has been rehabbing and skating regularly, it may take time for him to adjust to a competitive in-game experience that is difficult to replicate. The centre will be given every opportunity to succeed. Before this morning’s practice, the centre took reps on the team’s second power-play unit and skated between Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux on the line rushes. Giroux’s presence is notable because his ability to take faceoffs will allow the Senators to take pressure off of Norris and help avoid the risk of injury.
Shane Pinto was moved to the third line where he will skate alongside Derick Brassard and Dylan Gambrell. The quality of linemates is not particularly strong, but the hope is that the rookie will finally add more talented depth to a bottom six that has simply not generated enough offence.
This lack of scoring depth has helped sink an offence that relies extensively on the production of its top two lines. Belleville is currently outside the AHL playoff picture, so perhaps there is a chance that the team is drawing closer to promoting Igor Sokolov and Ridley Greig. The two prospects currently sit first and second in team scoring and as the Senators’ season swirls the drain, both players could use an extended opportunity to showcase what they can do at the NHL level.
32 Thoughts
Considering the unlikelihood of Ottawa reaching the postseason or even playing meaningful hockey down the stretch, reports continue to surface that the Senators are kicking tires on impending unrestricted free agent defencemen.
Matt Dumba was identified by Darren Dreger as one player who the Senators expressed interest in, but Elliotte Friedman expanded on Ottawa’s intentions in his latest ‘32 Thoughts’ article.
16. It seems counterintuitive, but Ottawa has considered rental defencemen. First, it gives a look at someone you might want to extend. Second, I think they consider finishing as strong as possible very important to their young, core players and their market.
The use of ‘counterintuitive’ feels appropriate on the surface, but there are possibilities that can make sense for these reports. Any interest in unrestricted free agents could simply be attributable to the Senators doing their due diligence on every prospective player who may be available in a trade.
As shortsighted as it may seem for the Senators to consider the possibility of trading futures for a rental defenceman given their place in the standings, flipping Travis Hamonic for a draft pick and then turning around and using a similar pick to upgrade Hamonic’s spot could make sense.
It is never going to be worthwhile to acquire a rental at the cost of a high pick, but if the Senators can creatively improve Hamonic’s roster spot while doing so in a relatively cost-efficient manner that does not impact’s short or long-term vision, it could make sense. Of course, it is easier to write that than see it be realized, but this possibility really depends on Ottawa’s ability to target the right player.
And, that’s the rub.
What this front office and its pro scouting staff have proven over their tenure here is that their track record and valuation of competent veteran defenders is horrendous. Part of that can be blamed on their willingness to listen and be influenced by the coaching staff. Too often, the Senators have acquired players who their coaches have relationships and familiarity with. It was a flaw of Pierre Dorion’s when Guy Boucher was the head coach and it is a problem that has extended through the D.J. Smith era.
It is no wonder why fans distrust this organization’s ability to target and acquire competent defenders.
The irony is that improving upon Hamonic is not going to be difficult. It is a really short bar to clear, but the better his replacement, the greater the relative positive impact he will have. If the intent is to give this team the best chance to win, replacing Hamonic with a competent defender is the easiest solution.
Will the organization do that, however?
It is easy to be skeptical. It would not be surprising to see the organization assume that Hamonic would thrive with fewer minutes and responsibilities on the team’s third pairing. Ignoring the fact that the sheltered pairing of Erik Brannstrom and Nick Holden has arguably been the team’s most consistent and dependable pairing.
Friedman’s suggestion that the team’s could use the rest of the season as a window to evaluate and extend an impending UFA is interesting because of Pierre Dorion’s assumed lame-duck status. If the Senators are sold soon, and the expectation is that Galatioto Sports Partners will open the team’s financial portal to prospective ownership groups this week, Dorion may not even be around by the time it comes to having conversations about extending such a UFA.
Mathieu Joseph Healthy Scratched
Earlier in this post, I briefly touched upon improving the depth and quality of the team’s bottom six. Having Shane Pinto move down the depth chart should help in that regard, but in a suspicious piece of news, D.J. Smith acknowledged after this morning’s practice that winger Mathieu Joseph will not dress tonight.
Joseph has not played since the team’s December 8th game versus the Stars in Dallas. He has missed the team’s past 17 games with an undisclosed lower-body injury, but Smith surprisingly acknowledged that Joseph will be a healthy scratch tonight.
It is a wild turn of events for a player who was acquired for Nick Paul and extended by the organization at an annual average value of $2.95 million. For the head coach to willingly bench a player who represents a clear upgrade on a number of the alternatives.
After scoring four goals and 11 points in 12 games with the Senators last season, this year’s been a disappointing one for the speedy forward. Joseph has struggled to produce, registering two goals and nine points in 25 games. It has been more than his offensive totals, however. The winger simply has not resembled the player he was last year. The dynamic speed and disruptive forechecking presence he displayed in the past just have not been there often enough.
Without knowing whether there are off-ice actions or conversations that are influencing Smith’s decision, for the coach to bench a forward who represents such a clear upgrade on the likes of Derick Brassard, Dylan Gambrell, Austin Watson and Parker Kelly is questionable — especially at a time when the organization and its coach should be desperate for wins.
The speculation on what transpired is only going to ramp up.
The Prospect Pool
The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler is currently in the process of revealing his ranking of the best NHL farm systems. Each day this month, Wheeler reveals an organization starting at the bottom and working towards the best system.
Yesterday he revealed the Senators as having the 24th-best pipeline of prospects. For the organization to place in the bottom 10 is not entirely surprising. Ottawa’s most well-regarded prospects have all graduated to the parent level and no longer qualify as prospects under Wheeler’s criteria.
To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must:
Be under 23 years old. We know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done with the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
Not be a full-time NHL player.
Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Players who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.
To be eligible for inclusion, a goalie must:
Be under 25 years old. This age criteria is more reflective of the typical goalie trajectory, allowing for the continued consideration of goalies who are very much still prospects.
Not currently be established as one of their NHL club’s two go-to options.
Trading away a top-10 pick in the Alex DeBrincat trade and overreaching on Tyler Boucher in 2021 obviously hurts the ranking, but the simple truth is that Ottawa’s recent graduates are incredibly talented players who comprise this team’s young core. As Wheeler’s colleague, Corey Pronman, noted this past summer in rating the Senators as having the fifth-best pipeline of players aged 22 and under, there are significant reasons for optimism.
Wheeler’s ranking does emphasize some key points, however.
During the rebuild, Ottawa built up a well-regarded reputation for its amateur scouting. Much of that is linked to the home runs that the organization hit with their top-five selections in recent years. It can and has been argued that Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson and Brady Tkachuk represent some of the best players of their respective draft classes.
The Senators are incredibly fortunate to have netted Stützle. If not for the injuries, Martin Jones’ disastrous 2019-20 season in which he was one of the worst statistical goalies in the NHL, and San Jose moving up in the lottery, Ottawa would never have selected third overall.
The play of the top-five picks when augmented by the selections of Shane Pinto (32nd overall, 2nd Rd in 2019) and Drake Batherson (121st overall, 4th Rd in 2017), many fans and members of the media bought into this perception that Dorion and his staff were infallible.
When prospect pundits like Wheeler pointed out that the Senators left a lot of draft value on the table in recent years, they were excoriated for it.
On one hand, it was understandable. There was so much negativity embattling the franchise during the latter years of the Eugene Melnyk era, fans needed a reason for optimism. It was easy to invest hope in the future when the decision to tank returned lottery selections and a ton of draft picks. It was all fans could latch onto and nobody wanted to really hear that the organization was missing the mark with their selections.
Don’t get me wrong, Ridly Greig and Zack Ostapchuk should carve out nice professional careers and I have hopes that Tyler Boucher will continue to develop and find his niche. But, there simply is not a lot of safely projectable NHL upside coming through Ottawa’s ranks. For an organization that has stockpiled as many picks as they have in recent years, it is incredibly disappointing that they do not have more to show for it.
And making matters worse, their surplus of picks has negatively influenced Ottawa’s decision-making in trades and at the draft.
Wasting valued picks on inconsequential veterans like Matt Murray, Derek Stepan, and Travis Hamonic was unnecessary. Reaching on Tyler Boucher because of his play style and concerns about cap management and drafting too much skill because you may not be able to afford it all down the road is some galaxy-brained decision-making that robbed the team of an opportunity to max out the value of a top-10 pick.
It is frustrating in the sense that things should be better than they are, but fortunately, Ottawa’s young core is talented enough to be excited about. I just do not trust this front office to make the most of what limited time they have left running this show.