On this past Saturday’s Hockey Night in Canada broadcast, Elliotte Friedman rifted on a number of small Senators news items. The first focused on Ryan Reynolds’ continued pursuit of a minority stake in the Ottawa Senators.
“Look, a lot of people are asking about Ryan Reynolds and as the prospective ownership groups being to get themselves ready for a bidding process that is going to open up probably in about a week and a half to two weeks. Our understanding is he’s going to be taking some more meetings this week with potential ownership groups to see which one he wants to align with. And Ron, I don’t think we’ve heard the end of this when it comes to star power and potential here, I don’t think Reynolds is going to be the only one.”
It would be awesome if Reynolds was documenting this journey so it could eventually be published for hockey fan consumption. It could make for an entertaining watch to see some of the behind the scenes details from his trip to Ottawa, spending time with league executives, and his conversations on which group to align with. Regardless of who ultimately winds up winning the bidding process, hopefully they find a way to get Reynolds involved on some level to help give the organization a marketing and branding bump that it so desperately needs.
Speaking of prospective owners, the Globe & Mail reported a new name who is interested in purchasing the Senators. Patrick Dovigi is a 43-year-old billionaire who is the president and CEO of Green For Life Environmental Inc. (GFL) - a waste disposal company based out of Toronto.
Dovigi actually has some interesting hockey connections. He was drafted 41st overall in the second round of the 1997 NHL Draft by the Edmonton Oilers. Dovigi tended goal for the Erie Otters and the St. Mike’s Majors, but he ultimately never reached the professional ranks.
Obviously, Dovigi’s pivot in career choices worked out really, really, really well for him.
Friedman had one last nugget of information pertaining to the Senators and it had to do with a deal that the Senators discussed for Vancouver defenceman Tyler Myers.
“Mentioned Ottawa, very unlikely they are able to do (Erik) Karlsson, but I do think them and Vancouver talked about a Tyler Myers/Nikita Zaitsev-type trade. I don’t think it ever got to Myers. My buddy Rick Dhaliwal reported that he did not turn down a trade. I don’t think it ever got to him. I do think the two teams talked about it. It would give Vancouver a bit of cap relief. Ottawa, help on defence. I don’t know where it stands right now or if it can be revived, but it was, at some level, discussed.”
Like Zaitsev, Myers is in the second last year of his contract that carries an average annual value of $6.0 million. Myers earns $5.0 million in real money before the last year of his contract calls for a signing bonus of $5.0 million to go with a base salary of $1.0 million.
Nikita Zaitsev has been a terrible defenceman for the Senators since the moment he arrived, but now that the team’s talent level and expectations for its success have changed, Zaitsev’s no longer viewed as a veteran defenceman that the team can afford to carry on its roster. There are simply not too many players the Senators should not be willing to acquire for Zaitsev but, Tyler Myers is one of them.
Having already paid his $2.0 million signing bonus last summer, Zaitsev’s only earning $2.5 million in base salary, so he is less expensive this season than Myers.
The only reasons the Senators would make this move is because Vancouver would be adding a sweetener to the deal or the Senators believe that Myers actually represents a worthwhile upgrade to their right defence position.
According to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Wins Above Replacement’ metric, Tyler Myers is tied with Tony DeAngelo for being the 7th-least valuable defenceman in the NHL this season (-0.7 WAR). Using the site’s ‘DEF’ metric that looks at quantifies a player’s total defensive contribution at even strength and on the penalty kill, Myers has the league’s 21st lowest rating (-1.8).
He has not been good at all and to willingly play him on the right side regularly with Travis Hamonic, that would give the Senators two of the league’s least valuable contributors to that position in the entire league. It would not resolve the team’s problem. It is hard to criticize a trade proposal without knowing its entire parameters of what was even proposed. But, trading one ineffective and expensive defenceman whose contract is a poor allocation of resources for another more expensive defenceman seems like an unimaginative shuffling of the deckchairs. And willingly wanting to take Myers and Hamonic off another general manager’s hands should get someone fired. Blame the scouts. Blame the manager.
It does not resolve Ottawa’s problems at the position and even if Myers represents a relative upgrade to the position, at what cost? Zaitsev’s signing bonus is a sunk cost, so spending an extra $2.5 million this season and an extra $1.5 million next season for another underperforming player is not the kind of inspiring or shrewd transaction that fans are clamouring for.
I get it. Everyone’s tired of Nikita Zaitsev’s play and we all would love to see the organization be rid of him. His contract and performance were predictably going to be problems when Pierre Dorion acquired him from the Maple Leafs in 2019.
The roster and its core are at a point where management should aggressively be exhausting every creative avenue to significantly improve the talent level of the players surrounding its youngest and best players.
Tyler Myers ain’t it.
If the Senators are serious about trying to dump Zaitsev on some other organization, send draft capital or prospects the other way to free up the entirety of the contract belonging to the player.
Poor Luck Overshadows Poor Team Defence
The Senators have garnered a lot of attention for their inability to fill the net when they have been gifted some glorious scoring opportunities.
Their poor shooting luck has been well-documented and can be highlighted in this JFreshHockey tweet:
Based on publicly available data, the Senators should have scored 5.7 more goals based on the quality of shots that they generated in all on-ice situations (ie. shorthanded, on the power play, at even strength).
It is that poor luck that many are attributing as one of the principal reasons for the team’s languished start, especially in light of all the one-goal losses that they have suffered thus far. It is certainly a contributing factor and one that the glass-half-full fans should play up believing that some inevitable normalization here will propel the team to more wins sometime soon.
Ottawa’s cultivated an entertaining group of offensive players up front, so it is not really a surprise to see the team create offensive chances easily. Alex DeBrincat’s start in particular is emblematic of the larger problem. The team is getting their opportunities to bury chances, they simply just aren’t going in.
General manager Pierre Dorion has talked about the team’s struggles are not a coaching problem and he has played up the fact that the one statistic he cares about, expected goals, portrays the team favorably. According to the metrics provided on many publicly available websites like NaturalStatTrick or Evolving-Hockey, the Senators are generating a greater percentage of the expected goals at five-on-five. If the team could simply fill the net more and their goals for percentage actually began to mirror their percentage of expected goals, they would be doing better and the criticisms being cast towards the coaching staff and organization would be fewer.
None of that analysis is wrong, but to me, this type of analysis needs more context and helps gloss over the fact that the Ottawa Senators are still a terrible defensive team.
Looking at JFreshHockey’s tableau work, the Ottawa Senators generate a ton of expected goals, but they absolutely give a ton of those opportunities back to the opposition.
It is entertaining to see offence and the city is fortunate to have such a young group of likable players on the roster, but there comes a certain point where it is reasonable to not only question this organization’s philosophy and ability to properly insulate this young core but to question whether this coaching staff has the ability to develop and teach this group how to develop defensively as a collective unit.
A lot of the focus and emphasis has been placed on the lack of talent on the blue line. It is unquestionably a massive issue, but the inattention to detail, the missed assignments, and poor man-to-man coverage in the defensive zone while the opposition overmatches the Senators with the rotational player and puck movement has been just as debilitating.
The attention to detail simply is not there and through the team’s first 17 games, there has not been any progression on that front. The same mistakes are being made and they are not being corrected. Accountability has to take place on some level and the body language on the bench just sucks.
The players can hang this on themselves in an attempt to dispel blame from a coaching staff that they like, but at some point, this group needs to realize that they don’t just need a player-friendly coach on the bench. They need a motivator and a teacher who can help them reach another level.
This team cannot have sustained success playing the way that it is right now. It needs to change.
Other news and Notes:
The Chicago Blackhawks retired Marian Hossa’s number 81 last night ahead of their game against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The right winger won three Stanley Cup rings in Chicago, but he only spent one more regular season in Chicago than he did in Ottawa. He actually scored more goals with the Senators (188) than he did with the Blackhawks (186), but Hossa did put up 25 more points in 67 more games. Hossa was one of the most talented two-way players that this organization has ever had and it is a shame that he did not remain in Ottawa longer, but with the team dusting off the ‘Ring of Honour’ and it being eager to create some history of its own, perhaps they would consider adding Hossa’s name to it one day. He is certainly a deserving candidate who warrants consideration.
D.J. Smith revealed at yesterday’s practice in San Jose that Senators rookie defenceman Jacob Bernard-Docker would miss the next month with a high ankle sprain. It is an unfortunate situation for a player who is trying to solidify himself as an NHL regular.
The present owners are seeing their sale value decline as the team flounders. The scouts and drafting have been good, but the coaching and trading have not. Nick Paul has thrived since leaving. Joseph has done squat. Craig Anderson was more solid last year than the merry go round in Ottawa. Talbot hasn't outplayed Forsberg. Agree that Meyers isn't a helpful idea. Last year Jared Tinordi was available on waivers. At lease he clears the front of the net, and the present crew can't do that consistently. In my opinion, both PD and DJS have to go ASAP.