Thoughts in Bold: GM Pierre Dorion on TSN 1200's 'The Drive'

Senators general manager Pierre Dorion joined Graham Creech and Lee Versage on TSN 1200’s ‘The Drive’ yesterday afternoon. Although it was a relatively short 14-minute conversation for one of these hits, he did drop some really important items of interest to discuss.

If you are not familiar with the format of these posts, it is pretty straightforward. I have transcribed the entirety of Dorion’s comments from the interview - which can be heard in its entirety here. Following each of Dorion’s thoughts, I have provided my own which are highlighted in bold.

Enjoy.

On what life has been like for the general manager over the last month or two…

“Really, not much has changed. I have met with the seven potential groups. As with everyone else, I hear rumours we’re down to four and have had some follow-up calls or information given to them and just going about our business. From the day that I had my year-end press conference, I left for about over two weeks to … I saw some playoff games and came back. I saw a few Quebec league games and took a few days for myself. Then we had amateur meetings and then went to the World (Championships) for about 10 days, came back and it feels like I haven’t stopped. So, business as usual.”

Until the ownership change takes place, what else can the general manager do? As much as he may try to play up the fact that he’s sold his vision and plan to the four remaining prospective ownership groups, Dorion realizes the nature of his position. He is working on borrowed time.

On appearing on fan podcasts and having relationships directly with the fan base…

“I think it’s great and one was more my initiative going on Locked on Sens. Those guys are great. They know our players. They know, I think, the fan base. I think it’s great to go on there and talk about our team and try to give out as much information as possible. I haven’t said much since the season ended, so we’ve made some additions as far as whether they’re going to be depth or whether they’re going to be NHL players or where they’re going to fit into our lineup, so it was good to talk about those guys. Obviously, there’s three players that we sent back in the draft. We’re going about our business, letting them know I’m talking to a lot of GMs about potential moves for our team. Our team, I think, is in a better spot than it’s ever been. We need to do a few things though. We know that, internally. We’re not going to discuss that publicly because we talked about getting a ‘D’ last year and I think every… 31 other guys saw me coming trying to get a ‘D’. It took forever, but we were still able to do it. But, just go about our business with the team and that’s about it. You know, tell all the fans what our expectations are and where we want to go and that’s what we strive to do.”

The Pierre Dorion accessibility and redemption tour is such a weird thing. Don’t get me wrong, it’s fantastic that he is out doing interviews with the ‘Locked on Sens’ guys and pursuing opportunities to engage with the online community and fan base in non-traditional ways. Grassroots initiatives like this are fantastic but in this modern era of social media and something that the organization should have been doing for years — especially when its reputation was taking a beating and desperately could have used some good PR. The frustrating part is that this kind of accessibility is so easy.

Working underneath bending to the whims of a volatile boss like Eugene Melnyk did not help, but this is the same front office that: 1) gave preferential treatment to journalists based on whether they provide favourable coverage; 2) prevented Ken Warren from accessing the team’s charter in 2018; 3) ripped Terry Marcotte publicly for reporting a rumour that wound up being corroborated by Bob McKenzie later on; 4) ducked media responsibilities with the team’s official broadcast partner.

As great as it is to see Dorion doing his best to be engaging and willing to put himself out there, it all feels like a too little, too late kind of thing.

On the European signings and what he likes about them…

“Well obviously, (Jiri) Smejkal is someone we saw play last year at the World Championships. Obviously, our pro scouts Jim Clark, Mikko Ruutu… well, Mikko is the amateur and head European guy, but Jim went over there and saw him. Rob Murphy also saw him at the Worlds last year and the Worlds this year. Well, this year he was signed. He was just someone that we talked to. We told him watch our team. These are the guys you have to beat to be on the team next year. I was really impressed with him at the Worlds. He’s a big body. He works hard. He’s a great net-front guy on the power play. He’s got great hands in tight. He can also play the PK. He competes. He works. His speed is good, it’s just going to be about his edges and his quickness for the NHL level. I was pleasantly surprised by how he played at the Worlds. Actually, coming back from there, I was more impressed this year than I was last year which is a sign in the right direction. And, Nikolas Mantipalo is someone that obviously our European scout Mikko Ruutu was really impressed with this year. He started not a front-line role for his club team but worked his way to the national team. He’s someone that has really good hockey IQ – which I really seem to like in defencemen. He moves the puck well. Every pass is on the stick and he can shoot it. He’s got good gaps and a good stick. I think there will be an adjustment a bit to pro hockey for both of them at the NHL level or at the American (Hockey) League level – wherever they play. But, I think they’ve both got a chance to push for jobs at training camp.”

In a recent interview, Dorion mentioned that the third pairing right defenceman job was probably Jacob Bernard-Docker’s to lose. Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson will require waivers to be sent down to start the season, so it makes sense as to why JBD would have an inside track. Allowing Matinpalo to get accustomed to North American hockey and the smaller rinks by starting in the AHL is a pretty safe play. If he performs well or JBD plays his way off the parent roster, Matinpalo provides a depth option beyond Thomson — especially if the Senators are concerned about the possibility of losing either Thomson or JBD to waivers.

On how comfortable he is with the entire forward group…

“Obviously, there are some guys who won’t be coming back. A guy like Austin Watson is probably looking for more term than we’re probably willing to give, but we’re not closing the door on him. From the whole forward group, I think if you look down the middle and our four centres are Josh (Norris) and Timmy (Stützle), (Shane) Pinto and Mark Kastelic, I think we’re in pretty good shape. I think if you look at the top four wingers with Brady (Tkachuk), Claude (Giroux), (Alex) DeBrincat and (Drake) Batherson, I think you put a (Mathieu Joseph) in there who can slide up and down if there’s an injury, I think we’re in pretty good shape there. Just, let me see. Can a guy like (Egor Sokolov) make the jump? Can a guy like (Cole) Reinhardt or (Angus) Crookshank make the jump? So, it will be interesting to see how those guys look at camp. Are we going to bring back some of the guys who were in our lineup last year? How is Parker Kelly going to handle it? As a whole, we’re pretty comfortable with our forward group.”

It could be purely coincidental, but it is interesting that in his end-of-the-season media availability, Dorion stated that he’s only really looking to explore one-year commitments to his team’s impending UFAs. Stating that he’s unwilling to meet Austin Watson’s multi-year ask is consistent with that, but with the organization signing one-year commitments to players like Jiri Smejkal and Nikolas Matinpalo, I do wonder if these short-term commitments are by design or whether Dorion actually has the blessing and ability to make multi-year commitments at this stage of the organization’s sale process.

If the Senators do move on from Watson, it would create a spot for Sokolov to fill. It feels safe to assume that Ridly Greig and Smejkal would get the first cracks at that the third and fourth-line left-wing roles, but it will intriguing to watch Belleville’s leading goal scorer, Angus Crookshank, showcase his abilities in training camp and the preseason. There were times last preseason when you saw flashes of NHL potential. I’m interested in seeing how much he has progressed now that he has his first full professional season under his belt.

On Alex DeBrincat and the options the organization has…

“Obviously, as an organization when we traded for him, we wanted to sign him to as much term as possible. He wanted to feel his way out in Ottawa. We’ve had preliminary talks with his agent. We’re waiting to what transpires. We’re all fairly busy when the season ends, so obviously as the month of June (goes on), we’ll have a better idea about what their inclinations are. First and foremost, we’d like to sign him and if we can’t sign him… you know, he had 27 goals last year. But, I think if he plays with Josh or Timmy, he gets more. If you look at all the posts and crossbars he hit, if he gets half of them or even a quarter of them (to go in), he’s in the 30s. So, I think with that, there’s a situation where we sign him to a long-term deal. There’s a situation where we qualify him at $9 million on a one-year deal. There’s a situation where if we see we’re not going to make any progress, we’re going to do our due diligence because we’re going to be a cap team. So, maybe we go to club-elected arbitration. And, if they indicate to us that maybe they don’t want to sign here or it’s a situation where we might have to look at trading him and seeing what’s out there on that market. Obviously, we’d like to sign him first, but I think we have to look at every option. If they come back and they want a number that doesn’t work for us, we’re going to have to look at other options too with Alex. It’s just, I think before the draft we’ll have more clarity on it and these types of contracts don’t take (that much time). (I’ve) been doing them long enough, in the span of a week you can get something done if you want to get something done. If you don’t want something to get done, then it takes longer. So, it’s always if both parties want to get something done and our side definitely wants to get something done.”

I don’t want to read too much into Dorion outlining all of the scenarios the organization could explore for DeBrincat and conclude that it must mean that DeBrincat’s headed out that door. It seems pretty obvious that the club is exploring all of its options to create leverage in a situation where they don’t have a ton of it. If the organization elects to take DeBrincat to arbitration to lower the average annual value on a one-year contract, that’s easily the fastest way to ensure his departure.

With the NHL Draft at the end of the month, I am surprised a bit by the fact that Dorion does not have a firm grasp, at least that he’s admitting to, of which way DeBrincat is leaning in terms of a long-term extension yet. If the organization is put in a position where they have to consider moving him, I would assume they would want as much time as possible to exhaust every avenue and build up his market.

Moving DeBrincat would be a tough deal to make considering any trade would necessitate weighing its priorities. Considering how important it is for the team to play in the playoffs, do they prioritize their short-term competitiveness in a prospective trade - targeting a return that can help this team now? Or, would it be in the team’s best interests to target the best overall value that may be headlined by draft picks and futures?

On explaining club-elected arbitration…

“It’s very simple. It’s just, you elect to go to arb. What we would do, we would elect to go to arb and we would ask for a 15-percent drop on the number of his $9 million qualifying offer. And, our goal would say, ‘Well, his qualifying offer should be closer to the AAV instead of the ($9 million). We can get a 15-percent markdown. You look at other teams and they’ve done this in the past. I’m just trying to give our fans as much information as possible because if something like this happens, so they understand. We’re all in a business here. If we see that we can’t get anything done, well, we have to do what’s best for the team – especially with us most likely being a cap team next year. That at a $7.85 million instead of a $9 (million) for Alex DeBrincat helps us maybe get another player or add another million to a player we really want to get. These are all things that we look at.”

Getting DeBrincat at a lower AAV is obviously more desirable, but it all really depends on how that money is reallocated. If the team is targeting talented and efficient players who can help this team win, awesome. If they’re simply giving that money to replacement-level talents who exhibit veteran qualities or character, pissing off a two-time 40-goal scorer to do it might not be worth the hassle.

On whether he has made a decision on D.J. Smith and his staff’s future…

“Well, obviously yes. I’ve made a decision. Once we get new ownership, I’ll make my recommendation and we’ll go from there.”

That was hardly the public vote of confidence I was expecting. If Dorion wanted to quash any concerns, he could have said something along the lines of, ‘So long as I’m here in my current role, D.J. Smith will be the head coach of the Ottawa Senators next season.’

He did not say that.

Mind you, if he was going to let D.J. Smith go, it should have been done by now. Allowing a head coach to twist in the wind as the offseason drags on and other coaching opportunities get passed by would be a shitty thing to do if the intent is to eventually move on.

On the other hand, if the Senators fire D.J. Smith now, can the general manager make an external hire without new ownership being in place?

Probably not.

On it being a tough spot for him to deal with D.J. Smith’s future because of new ownership coming in…

“Yeah, it’s a tough spot for everyone involved in this process. It’s not something that… you’re dealing with peoples’ lives and you’re dealing with good people. But, at the same time, I’ve got an obligation to the organization and we’ll see what comes in the next few weeks here – probably in the next two or three weeks with the ownership bid. From then, we’ll make decisions fairly quickly and go about our business.”

My guess at what’s going on is that Dorion recognizes that he and Smith will likely be punted once the sale of the team is finalized. And, if they aren’t immediately, it will only be a matter of time before new ownership brings in their own people.

On what the team needs to take the next step and get where it needs to go…

“Well, last year I remember doing an interview with Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek before the year and I talked about having a save percentage of .915. It might have been a bit enthusiastic. I think we need saves. I think if you look at how our team is built now, we’re built to have a good power play. With how the team is built now, I think our top-four is solidified. I really like where we are with (Brannstrom) probably as our number five. I think moving forward, we just need some saves. It’s not very complicated and I know I’m trying to simplify it as much as I can. If we can get healthy and a lot of teams go through injuries, if we get through part of the season as healthy as we can be and get some saves, I think we’ll be a pretty good team next year.”

The Senators had the 24th-lowest five-on-five save percentage in the NHL last season per NaturalStatTrick at 90.68. It should not be that surprising considering the organization used seven goaltenders during the 2022-23 season.

On the success of unheralded goaltenders in the postseason and whether that has affected his thoughts on what may be needed to address the position moving forward…

“Well, obviously when it comes to that, I’ve had long meetings since the end of the year. Ryan Bowness and I, because he oversees the pro side of things, we’ve had long meetings with Zac Bierk and Justin Peters about all potential free agent goalies, all potential RFA goalies, all potential goalies that could be on the market… but at the same time, we evaluate that in comparison with what we have internally. At the same time, four games in the playoffs does not change a whole body of work of a goalie or of goalies. I think you’ve got to look at everything. You’ve got to look at past, how many games they have played. Some guys can start playing more games when they get to be 28 or 29 (years of age). Goalies’ mental (make up). You know, how they’ve handled adversity, what have they won in their life? How they have faced the pressure because no matter what anyone tries to tell me, it’s a different animal being a goaltender in a Canadian market than being a goaltender in a different U.S. markets. You’ve got to look at those things. You’ve got to look at a lot of things and once we have our pro meetings with our pro scouts, that will definitely be something that we look at. But, at the end of the day, if we feel that Mads Sogaard or whoever it might be internally, is the best fit with Anton Forsberg – who’s going to be one of the two goalies – then we’ll go in that direction. Sometimes you’re not going to make a signing just to make a signing or you’re not going to make a trade just to make a trade. You’re going to make sure that you upgrade at that position.”

The Senators cannot start next season with an Anton Forsberg/Mads Sogaard tandem. The performance of the goaltending position is volatile enough without having to bank on the reliability and health of a goaltender coming off a double-knee injury or a rookie goaltender who had a goals saved above expectation mark of -4.38.

Don’t get me wrong. If Anton Forsberg is healthy and can play at his pre-injury levels, he’s a very capable goaltender. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, his goals saved above expectation mark is the 15th-best in the league. There is no guarantee of that, however, and it’s a relatively small sample size of games being played at a very volatile position.

Every goaltender available on the market who has No. 1 aspirations has to be looking at Ottawa’s situation as a desirable opportunity. With a relatively unproven veteran and a few inexperienced prospects who have not really proven themselves at the professional level, it should theoretically be easy for any incoming player to step in and become the guy. Unless you’re Cam Talbot, I guess.

The problem for the Senators is that they have to get free agents like Alex DeBrincat, Shane Pinto and Erik Brannstrom under contract while addressing the goaltending position. It does not leave them with a ton of cap space to fit in a goalie, which helps explain why the organization may be so desperate to save some money on DeBrincat’s AAV.

As one astute follower on Twitter (@birky) mentioned, however, the Senators could ultimately save themselves money if the Maple Leafs go ahead and buy out Matt Murray.

When the Senators traded Murray last offseason, they retained almost $1.6 million in dead cap salary. Considering his health struggles and inconsistent play, it is reasonable to assume the Leafs will buy out the final year of his deal ($8.0 million in real dollars, $6.25 million AAV).

Using CapFriendly’s buyout calculator, the Senators would only have to pay Murray $229k for the 2023-24 season. Meaning, a buyout would create almost $1.3 million in cap savings for the Senators this season if the Leafs buy him out.

On a lot of buzz in this city and how thirsty it is for playoff hockey…

“We have passionate fans and we have knowledgeable fans. It’s great what’s going to happen here with new ownership. Someone that’s going to come in with deep pockets and allow this team to be a team that really grows and really aspires to great things. But, it’s great that our fans are passionate. It’s great that our players are passionate about our fans too. Being from here, I lived here pretty much my whole life, I think it’s great what happened last year with the buzz. The chants that ‘We want the playoffs!’ Everything associated with the team, I think, last year was a big if not a huge step in the right direction for our future success.”

Provided that deep pocket owner does not come in and just lavishly throw money around to make a splash. Purposeful moves done by a calculated ownership group that invests properly and creates a robust hockey operations department is all I want.