Thoughts in Bold from Dorion's Interview on 'TSN Mornings'

Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion was live in the studio with Steve Lloyd and Kenny Walls earlier today on TSN 1200’s ‘TSN Mornings’ broadcast.

Less than 48 hours after moving Alex DeBrincat, Dorion used the opportunity to share some insight into how the process unfolded.

If you are not familiar with the format of these posts, it is pretty straightforward. The full interview can be listened to here, but I have transcribed all of Dorion’s reflections below. Following each of Dorion’s thoughts, I’ve provided my own which are highlighted in bold.

Enjoy.

On when he first had a feeling that DeBrincat

“Well, we talked about, we obviously, when we made the trade, we said we'd look at if he was interested in signing long term. It was always our goal to sign Alex long-term. We talked initially at training camp. They said, ‘Let's just see how he likes it.’

So, about halfway through the year, we reached out to them and they said, ‘You know, we thought your team would be a bit better from the start of the year. You know, you probably need another (defenceman). We got a (defenceman). So, I called them after the trade deadline and they said, ‘You know, let's just see where it goes to the end of the year.’

And really my first, you know, they gave me a bit of a hint, but really, Alex's body language. In the exit interview told me enough, even though he said, ‘You know, my agent, my family and I will talk about it and we'll get back to you.’ To me, being around enough, being around a long time, we figured D.J. and I, after he left, I told D.J., ‘He doesn't want to be here for (the) long term.’

Then maybe a month after or so, the exit interviews, I'm pretty sure I was back from the World Championships. The agent called me. He said, ‘We're not going to sign long-term with you guys.’ I said, ‘Okay.’ He said, ‘Do you mind if I give you a list of teams that he'd like to go to and sign long-term with?’”

I’m going to jump in here. It would have been interesting to hear whether there were ever any encouraging signs from DeBrincat or his reps that he wanted to remain here. One of the things that really stood out from last season was a tweet by the NHL Network’s Kevin Weekes discussing how negotiations between the Senators and DeBrincat were reportedly progressing.

The way that Dorion explained the series of events, any attempt to negotiate was shelved. That might have been a red flag there, but with new ownership on the way, maybe the prolonged sale process put the DeBrincat camp in a position where they just weren’t comfortable signing a long-term extension.

It is interesting to note that the DeBrincat camp identified how desperately the team needed a defenceman. One of my criticisms for the DeBrincat trade was that it was made in isolation. With a one-year window to essentially sell a player on the city, his teammates, the organization and its ability to cultivate a winner, acquiring DeBrincat without being able to improve the quality of the blue line should be viewed as a colossal blunder.

And again, I unquestionably believe Dorion kicked tires and made an effort. It is just that to make that kind of gamble while sending a significant opportunity cost out the door represented a huge, huge risk. For an organization that graduated many of its best prospects to the NHL level and does not have an infusion of safely projectable high-upside players available to them, making that trade without knowing whether or not you had more than a year of control was irresponsibly reckless.

“I checked it this morning so I wouldn't mislead you. That (list) was nine teams… But in saying that, some of those teams would be impossible to make a trade (with) because they don't have the cap space. Some of those teams were still in the playoffs and I wasn't gonna call them while they were still in the playoffs. You have to understand that I think there was a respect factor in those teams are battling for the Stanley Cup. But, I reached out all to nine.

From then, they added a few more. Those teams weren't really interested. Then, you know, we worked our way towards a deal on Sunday to trade Alex.”

Nine teams is more than the previously reported five, but even if teams were interested in DeBrincat, the flat cap for the 2023-24 season was always going to complicate matters. Ironically, what does it say that the other prospective suitors wanted a guaranteed contract extension to ensure they got more than a year out of DeBrincat?

On whether it ever got serious in trade discussions to move Alex to a team other than Detroit and how many…

“Yes… I'm not gonna give you the exact number… I gave permission to multiple teams to talk before free agency started. Once July 1st hit, at that point in time, it was pretty evident that we weren't gonna get a deal. Even if we wanted to get a deal, I think he was in the best interest of everyone (to move DeBrincat). We referenced Mark Stone and what happened there. I always had faith in my heart and maybe it was my heart leading me that we could sign Mark Stone. In this case, I knew that (DeBrincat) would not sign at the end of the year. I think with Mark, we were so close before we settled on the one-year (contract) that I thought we had faith. And, to me, it was more about what's best for the organization because Alex is a good player. Alex can definitely help us win games next year. But, it was more along the lines of, what if he gets hurt at camp and he's done for the year? Can we wait till the trade deadline? Depending on the return, depending on how he's played. I think he'd play fairly well, is it worth taking the risk? And, to me, it was always about getting a first (round pick) back.”

And, that’s totally fair for Dorion to say. The team could not afford to lose DeBrincat without bringing assets back in return. Although he has enjoyed incredibly healthy seasons since joining the league, every player is one catastrophic hit or an unfortunate event away from injury. It is just the nature of playing a physical sport. After his down season, an injury would have submarined his value further, so it makes sense to trade him now and avoid all the in-season trade speculation and distractions it could have fostered.

I was curious to see what other recent rentals had gone for and ironically, considering the Senators’ reported interest in Vladimir Tarasenko, the Blues forward was moved for a package similar to what the Senators received for DeBrincat. (Note: Tarasenko was moved for Sammy Blais, defenceman Hunter Skinner, a conditional first-round pick in 2023 and a 2024 fourth-round selection.)

“I know people are gonna say, ‘You gave up the seventh pick overall and a (draft pick in the 30s), I forget, and a third-rounder coming this year.’ But, to me, who knows where that first pick is gonna be and who knows if that player, let's look in three or five years if that player that we take in the first round is going to be better than the player that was taken or who we would have taken at seventh. So, to us, it was about getting that first-round pick back. We got a player that we really like in Dominic Kubalik, who's really excited to be coming here. He only had seven less goals. So, I think it's not like we're getting a really bad player.”

I know a lot of people place an emphasis on getting a first-round pick and it carries a ton of inherent trade value, but in terms of value provided, the seventh overall pick is significantly different from one that is in the mid-teens or the back half of the first round.

The following image depicting draft pick value is from Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic.

Using his player value model, Dom found that a seventh overall selection historically has almost twice the value of the 20th overall selection and two and half times the value of the 31st overall pick.

Unless some bizarre scenario unfolds that sees the Red Wings and Bruins go into the tank and bottom out, the Senators are likely looking at receiving a mid to late first-round pick — which is fine. But, if the Senators keep this selection, chances are whoever they take with the pick could take a few extra years to play and have an impact on their roster.

“It's a really good contract. I give credit to the Red Wings for that and we like, Donovan Sebrango. I had the chance to see him in person, obviously, at the World Juniors in Edmonton. He's got leadership qualities. I think him not playing a year of hockey, then maybe going to the American League a bit too quick (impacted his development).

We can't change the past and then getting another pick in there, obviously, we would've liked to get a second or a third (rounder). At the end of the day, they had two fourth (round picks). I'd rather get a pick this year than maybe push it a year or two or three down the road, even if it was around (lower).

The general manager just admitted to accepting a less valuable pick simply because a fourth-round pick this year would introduce a player more quickly into their development system. It is reminiscent of the Vancouver Canucks asking for a fourth-rounder in exchange for Travis Hamonic and the general manager offering a third-rounder instead because the team didn’t have a fourth in the 2022 NHL Draft. (Note: the team did have one in 2023.)

“For us, it just made sense. At the end of the day, Detroit kept calling, kept calling, kept calling, and you're almost negotiating with one team. You have to get the best return. You have to do what's best for the organization. I don't look at it as what we paid and what we got in return because the situations are totally different. One guy is at one point in time when we acquired him, he was two years out of (unrestricted free agency). He gave us a good year of hockey. A lot of things could have gone a bit differently for us. A bit better luck with injuries and goaltending and maybe we make the playoffs. Then people don't look at it (negatively). But, we got a pretty good player for a year and we feel that we maximize our return in the best conditions possible.”

It is an underwhelming return and a product of a general manager whose gamble blew up in his face. We can all recognize and respect the reasons why Dorion took a chance on DeBrincat, but when a trade does not work out, he is the one who has to own it.

On whether he considered keeping DeBrincat around until the trade deadline…

“I’ve got an obligation to the organization and I couldn't take that chance. Then you lose a player and you get nothing if an injury happens or whatever the situation might be and you can't do that. You have obligations and you have got to feel and do what's right. and, you know, I didn't want to get to the trade deadline and we're two points out. We can get the same return and then you tell your fans we're pretty much quitting, trading away someone who's on pace to score 40 goals. So, then you’ve got to look at the optics and if that situation arose, or let's say we're in the top eight in our conference at that point in time, and then you trade a pretty important player on your team just to get picks. People are going to say, ‘What are you doing? We haven't been in the playoffs for so many years and now you're going to trade someone that's helping us get there.’ So, I think you had to weigh the pros and cons about this situation. At the end of the day, we're really negotiating pretty much with one team to get the most return. What made it a bit more difficult is that if (I) had a deal close with teams and Alex said he wouldn't sign there, it made it difficult for us. At the end of the day, we were pretty much negotiating with one team.”

I disagree with Dorion’s logic a bit here. Earlier in the interview, Dorion outlined how the team could ill afford to carry DeBrincat into the season and risk losing him to injury. If he approached the trade deadline as a buyer and a seller, I think there’s a chance that he wouldn’t have had to worry about optics. This fan base is smart enough to understand the situation and if the team flips DeBrincat as a rental and has a larger market of suitors, maybe he gets a better deal than he did this week. In turn, if the Senators are vying for a playoff spot, they could flip other assets (or ones acquired in a DeBrincat deal) to find a less expensive alternative or someone who offers the team more years of control. Navigating two trades of this magnitude could be tricky, but they could still leave the team in a competitive spot that helps their short and medium-term goals.

On DeBrincat and whether he had any inkling that have any intel that he would not sign an extension…

“We did a lot of homework. I can tell you we did a lot of homework. This deal didn't come (out of the blue). I remember Kyle throwing that name at me at the trade deadline, and I'm saying, ‘Okay, so why?’ So, I started doing homework. Is he a bad kid? No, not that I want to talk about (him) because he is about to have a baby. Good family man. Loves hockey. Practices hard. Everything pointed in the right... just loves hockey. I couldn't talk to him, couldn't talk to the agent, but just in trying to talk to former teammates, everything seemed to pan out well about him really liking hockey. Obviously, played his junior hockey in Erie, but played in the OHL, so he'd be accustomed to the 67s and Ottawa playing most of his away games in Ontario. So at that point in time for us, it, it seemed that he checked all of the boxes and (I) couldn't really talk to the player. Chicago didn't really give us permission. (I) kind of like asked and got, ‘Nah’. Because I don't know who (else) they were talking to, so at that point, we just went ahead and did it.”

Admitting that he never had a chance to talk to the player or agent ahead of pulling the trigger is a brave acknowledgement. Dorion can talk to all the executives, scouts, coaches and former teammates that he wants, without talking to the player directly or his representatives, he made this deal without getting a first-hand account of the player’s motivations and interests. To move that opportunity cost without having that intimate is hard to understand. Granted, I would have been a bit more conservative when it comes to taking on these kinds of risks considering the state of the franchise and its quality of prospects. But, damn, I don’t believe it was smart for Dorion to admit this publicly.

“In this job, it's never gonna be from lack of effort of trying to improve this team. And I just felt, you know, we'd had so many years of, so many picks. We've had like so many firsts and seconds and I think last year we had two seconds and we ended up getting the guy, I dunno if we would've (taken) that player at 30, at 37, but it, it was gonna be a similar type of player that we took with Filip Norberg. To me, the draft wasn't the deepest last year. I knew the top 10 really well from going out and scouting every time except for the Covid year when we pick in the top 10. I know what's going on and it's my background. If I can help the scouting staff make the decision, I'll definitely do that. At the end of the day when it's top 10, I get the final call. In retrospect, it just seemed to check all the boxes for us. And, there was no hesitation. Why don't we try and see how it goes and would the situation have been different if Josh Norris doesn't get hurt and he plays with Timmy and, or he plays with Josh or who knows? We can't deal with hypotheticals here. We just try to do what's best for the team.”

The Senators have had a ton of draft picks through their dramatic teardown of the 2017 Eastern Conference finals roster. Although they unquestionably hit home runs with each of their top-five selections, their draft record and the perception of their amateur scouting staff being savants is overstated. Outside of their top-five picks, the draft record is muddied. The selections of Shane Pinto and Drake Batherson have worked out well and the team has drafted many players who have appeared in NHL games. Unfortunately, using games played as a metric to assess the performance and quality of scouting opinions is terrible. It does not describe anything. Every fall teams can find credible options on waivers to fill depth roles within an organization. What matters is how impactful the performances of these players are. If a player is not effective, who cares if he appears in games or not? This team should be further ahead in its franchise development and one of the reasons why they are not further ahead is because the organization simply has not done an efficient job of extracting more value out of their selections.

On whether he is still looking for a top-nine forward…

“In a perfect world, we'd always like to improve our team. Obviously, Dominik has scored 20 goals. Our people feel that he could be a top-six player, but if we can look at improving our top-nine and he slides down or someone else from the top-six slides down, I think we'd be a pretty good hockey team.”

It certainly sounds confident that another forward addition is on the horizon.

On whether the team is still involved in talks with unrestricted free agent Vladimir Tarasenko…

“Yeah, maybe still involved. We talked to his previous agent and we've talked to his new agent. Obviously, we have talked to them and we'll see where that takes us.”

I discussed why the Senators might be wise to kick tires on alternatives to Tarasenko here, so I won’t use this space to do it again. If you haven’t given it a read, please check it out.

On whether he would be open to trading assets off the roster to acquire a forward…

“Without a doubt. If we make a trade acquiring… it most likely would be a forward. We're gonna have to move either another forward or assets. It depends on the player. It depends on the term he's got. I don't want to pigeonhole myself into a situation here. But, we feel that if we're going to trade for a forward, the player's going to have to have a certain type of term. Now we're at a point here where, unless it's a player that's unbelievable and he's got one year left and we feel that it changes everything, we'll look at it at that point in time.”

One of the obstacles to adding a top-six forward is that it is likely to be expensive. Whether it’s a free agent like Tarasenko or through a trade, the Senators currently have approximately $5 million in cap space to make an addition. Meaning, if they acquire someone more expensive, it will likely require them to clear out salary and depth to make it work. That likely makes players like Erik Brannstrom and Mathieu Joseph as candidates to be moved.

On where the team is at in negotiations with restricted free agents Shane Pinto and Egor Sokolov…

“We've spoken from the combines to… I texted with Shane's agent yesterday. We're discussing right now, we're discussing varying degrees of term. On Egor Sokolov, I know Ryan Bowness is doing that contract and he updates me daily. We'll see what happens. Here's a nugget for you guys. (Kevin) Mandolese is going to be signed today.”

Mandolese signed a one-year, two-way deal worth $775,000.

On still waiting on full reports from London and Hockey Canada in regards to the sex scandal and whether there is any clarity on Alex Formenton’s situation…

“No, I haven't. No update, unfortunately. The worst part is I can't comment on it. The NHL’s asked us not to comment until their investigation's over.”

In fairness, the worst part is that an alleged sexual assault may have occurred and five players may wind up facing criminal charges. It is not just Alex Formenton whose life could be affected either. Drake Batherson was also on that team.

On whether contract negotiations have begun with Jake Sanderson…

“Yes, but, I should clarify. People aren't expecting us to have a new contract. Pat Brisson is (his) new agent. Ironically enough, he represents (Vladimir) Tarasenko too. Jake switched agents. I didn't even know. I called his former agent said we'd start preliminary talks with him. I called him, he goes, ‘You didn't hear the news?’ I said, ‘No.’ (He said), ‘Jake left me.’ A few weeks later right around the draft, Pat let me know that he was (Jake’s) agent. We were both fairly busy at the draft with going on. But, we've touched on it and he's got a few things he's got to deal with. We'll see if we can start negotiating a contract.”

Pierre’s being too honest here. It’s probably not a great look to admit that he didn’t know his most important young piece in need of an extension switched agents.

On working with new owner Michael Andlauer and what that experience has been like…

“I don't know when he'll officially take over, but it's been great. Obviously, a lot of times when I've dealt with him, I go through the board. Then we get on a call. It's probably Sheldon, myself and him. We consult with him. He's been great. Just finding out how, when he own the American League team and when he owns actually the, now they're the Brantford Bulldogs, how much he cares about his players, how much he wants to create an environment where the players are catered to and their needs are met. How much I think he'll care about the city of Ottawa and this organization. I have been able to spend quite a bit of time with him. I've talked to him quite a bit on the phone and I think our fans should really get excited for, I think, first of all, getting a really good human being in all my interactions with him so far. But, at the same time, (Ottawa’s) getting someone who's going to be really passionate about the hockey side. I hope I don't get myself in trouble, but when I met with the seven groups, every meeting was probably… my time was about two hours with every group. With him, it went way longer. Way, way longer. You could tell his interest in the hockey team and I think that bodes really well for our fans and for the city. He's going to allow us to put a really good product on the ice.”

Waxing poetic about the new boss. No one can blame him for that.

On the swings and misses on some goaltenders and why the organization is confident in Joonas Korpisalo…

“Talent, athleticism, powerful, compete, size. Pierre went and saw him, was happy with what he saw. I'll get in trouble for saying Pierre, but anyways, I went, saw him and was really happy with what I saw in the playoffs. He is someone that we've liked from day one here. I think if you look at… since he's gotten (his hip) operated on and it's fixed now. It's good. It's the same situation with Josh Norris, our medical people say, ‘Pierre, you don't need to worry about his shoulder anymore. We got it fixed. It's done.’ I think it's the same thing with, you know, in all our homework on Joonas. You saw he played a full year last year without any issues. I think it's the right age. It's the right fit. After I got back from the playoffs, I ended up talking to Anton Forsberg about him. I think he read between the lines. I said, ‘Is he a good guy? And he goes, ‘Yeah, he's a really good guy. He practices hard. It's exactly the type of guy that I think will fit well with us.’ We've swung on a few guys. We've missed, but this one is one that I feel really confident about.”

Dorion never referenced which Pierre he was referring to. Former goaltending coach Pierre Groulx, I believe, is still with the organization in some capacity, so he may have been talking about him. I don’t know why Dorion would feel like he’d get in trouble for mentioning him if he is still employed with the organization. I suppose he could be worried about irking Zac Bierk or Justin Peters, but this whole answer plays more funnily if it was actually Pierre talking in the third person.

On the injury situation and updating the status on some of his players…

“Josh Norris has been skating for a while now. He waited, I forget the amount of time. I talked to him a few weeks ago. I don't know when it was. I apologize. But, he's been skating now. He's good. Anton Forsberg is skating. He'll be back here earlier this year. Tyler Boucher was at development camp, didn't do any physical drills, but shot the puck as hard as before. So, they'll all be ready. Tyler for rookie camp. Everyone will be ready for training camp. There are no lingering issues. There's no nothing. I followed up with both a few weeks back. I followed up before the draft. I followed up with our medical staff. I wanted a report on everyone that had an injury that left here with some kind of injury. Everything is positive. And, the other one was I wanted to make sure how everyone's conditioning was where they were in their workouts. And, I got a full report from our strength and conditioning coaches and everyone's working out. Tyler has some limitations. Not in the gym, but more on the ice. But, I think in a few weeks he'll be all right to do contact and everything.”

There is so much pressure on Josh Norris to return to health and resemble the player he was before the injury. The team’s postseason aspirations likely hinge on it.

On what the expectations for Tyler Boucher are whether he just needs to play…

“He's got to play. Ironically enough, I ran into his dad. It's been a whirlwind since my year-end press conference between going to scout some playoff hockey, world championships, amateur meetings, pro meetings. But, I took a few days off. I went to Vegas and I'm walking, 'm just walking in the casino and there's Brian (Boucher) and we ended up (talking), he was with Jody Shelley. They were doing the Edmonton/Vegas series. We ended up talking to his dad and I said, ‘Your son's gonna be a really good NHL player. He just needs a bit of time, but he needs to play.’ The best thing for him would be to play however many games there are in Belleville. Play that amount. If at Christmas time he's pushing us to call him up, so be it. Or if it's a year in Belleville, it's not the end of the world. We've always done it right with our prospects. Now pushing him, developing him the right way. I think with Tyler, with his power game,all the attributes that he brings, just play. Just play. I think he hasn't had played a lot of games in the last three years. So, I think from his draft year to last year to now… again, another guy we finally got (surgery), I think we needed to do this for him, for his career and for his development. We needed to get this surgery done. Hated to do it to the 67s, but I think everyone agreed that it was the best thing for him.”

Considering where he was picked in the 2021 NHL Draft, there was always going to be a lot of attention on Boucher. With his injury history and lack of games these past few seasons, his development at the pro level is going to be one of the more intriguing storylines of the 2023-24 season. Hopefully, Boucher stays healthy and adjusts quickly to the professional game. If he adapts and restores some of the lustre that he’s lost these past few years as a prospect, it will be a great story and help improve a thinning Senators farm system.

On whether it is the right time to say whether it is time for this team to make the playoffs…

“How about I say this? I'll go and make bold statements at training camp when I know what our team looks like if that's fair. Okay? But, I think last year I said let's play meaningful games (by) the trade deadline, and that's exactly what we did. Even with circumstances that were a bit difficult (to deal) with. Let's not lie to people. Our goaltending was not very good. We lost a pretty key player for most of the year. But, we still were able to play meaningful games to the trade deadline. So, I'll say, let's play meaningful games until April. That will be for today and let's just see what our team looks like when camp starts. Then I'll give everyone our expectations (are).”

Dorion, you’ve had six years to push towards competitiveness. You are the only general manager in the modern era who has missed the postseason in six consecutive seasons without paying the price with your job. What do you have to lose if you say it is the playoffs or bust?