Thoughts in Bold: Dorion's Media Zoom Call From Earlier Today
Ten days removed from the NHL’s Trade Deadline, Senators general manager Pierre Dorion participated in a media availability this morning to expand upon a number of important items concerning his team.
TSN 1200 aired the entirety of the Zoom call here, but for the purpose of this piece, I have transcribed the entire interview below.
After each of his answers, I have included my own thoughts, which I have included in bold.
Enjoy.
On whether the phones have been quiet at this time of the year…
“Obviously the phone is not ringing off the hook. Everyone knows that we’re not in the playoff hunt, but we definitely do want to play some games that matter for us as far as building our team. I think it will get busier in the next 10 days or so, but right now, the phone’s not really ringing off the hook.”
Things can obviously change in a hurry, but the reality of Ottawa’s situation is that its roster isn’t laden with a ton of desirable or moveable assets that can realistically be moved for a good return. Although a number of insiders have relayed the organization’s message that players like Zach Sanford and Michael Del Zotto are generating interest, the more desirable players like Nick Paul and Anton Forsberg may not even get dealt.
On the state of contract negotiations with Nick Paul…
“Yeah, on that one, you guys know that I don’t negotiate through the media. I think it’s best for all parties not to negotiate through the media. But, on some impending UFAs, we’ve talked to a couple of those (players’) agents. We’d like them to be part of our group if it makes sense and we’re working on possible deals, but we’re not going to say much more than that.”
If the Senators cannot reach agreements with Nick Paul or Anton Forsberg, they have to trade them. During last night’s TSN broadcast of the Ottawa/Seattle game, Bruce Garrioch likely echoed management’s belief that the team is at a stage where they don’t need to accrue more draft picks. To me, that just feels like a foolish approach when we are discussing a team with one of the league’s worst records and a prospect pool that has already graduated a lot of the talent to the parent roster. Outside of Jake Sanderson or even a Ridley Greig, there doesn’t feel like there’s a ton of safely projectable talent within the system that has a strong chance of playing near the top of an NHL lineup. There is a ton of depth, however, and there is a chance that some prospects could exceed expectations down the road, but turning down the opportunity to add draft selections by staggering the years of picks should be explored. Every franchise relies on an infusion of inexpensive young talent to help sustain competitive windows, but for a franchise like Ottawa that needs as much inexpensive, young talent as it can get, it seems foolish to just disregard easily acquired assets because of some shortsightedness.
On if there’s an update to Matt Murray’s health and what he envisions is the ideal plan for the team’s goaltending situation…
“As far as Matt Murray right not, Matt won’t be back for a little while. We’re going to make sure that Matt is back at 100-percent when he gets back in the net. Playing in the NHL for a goaltender, even if at 75 or 80-percent, you’re not giving your team the best chance to win. So, we want Matt at 100-percent. Ideally, to finish the year, it would be Matt and Anton Forsberg. Belleville right now is in a playoff spot and we want those players and that team both with Mads Sogaard and Filip Gustavsson, who’s up with us, to have a chance to play meaningful games. That would be the ideal situation, but sometimes it’s not the ideal situation. So for now, we’re just going to stay status quo with our goaltenders.”
Murray’s injury compounds the Senators’ goaltending problem because depth is an issue. A trade or an injury to Forsberg would mean that Filip Gustavsson would get the ball for the remainder of the year, but the team would be without a competent, in-house veteran to play the remainder of the season.
That isn’t to say that a competent veteran could not be brought into the fold on an inexpensive, short-term deal. Could Buffalo, for example, be willing to part with Craig Anderson for the remainder of the season for a late-round pick? Wouldn’t that be a nice story and fitting way to end his career?
As unlikely as that is, it would not be hard for the organization to cheaply acquire a goaltender with NHL experience at the deadline.
What it has to be wary about investing too much in a 10-game sample for Forsberg - a goaltender who has failed to resemble anything more than a backup during his career. If Forsberg remains unsigned by the March 21st deadline, the Senators simply have to move him. They are not in a position to be negligent and ignore the opportunity to add a future asset that they can use to draft a player or trade later to add an NHL-ready talent to the roster later.
And for as much emphasis as the Senators are placing on a prospective playoff push by Belleville, I believe there would be just as much value, if not more, in having Gustavsson play regularly at the NHL level down the stretch.
On providing an update on the timelines and when fans should expect a championship calibre team and how that may affect his approach at the trade deadline…
“Well, I think we want to be a competitive team. We want to be a team that fights for the playoffs as soon as next year. I think once you get into the playoffs, I think then anything can happen. So, we’ll take it step by step. We all think here that there’s a maturity process with some of our younger core – that they’re still developing and they’re still maturing. Some of our players are in their prime, like a (Thomas) Chabot, but still, some of our younger players still have a lot of room to grow. As far as giving a timeline, you never know what can happen, but obviously, our goal is to make the playoffs next year and move from there.”
I have mentioned core age analysis a few times recently and it’s worth bringing up again. Statistical analysis has demonstrated that most often, a player’s most productive years occur between 22 and 27 years of age. After that, production tends to plateau until there’s a slight decline into the early 30’s to which point it drops more significantly thereon in.
Many of Ottawa’s best players are already in or near that age. Thomas Chabot was singled out by Dorion, but Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Alex Formenton and Josh Norris have already turned 22. The window of opportunity for this team might already be here. In knowing that, there has to be a concerted effort to improve the true-talent level of the players supporting this team’s young core.
On how confident management is that Matt Murray is the organization’s long-term answer in goal…
“Well, obviously we’ve seen… with Matt, we’ve seen some good and some bad. I think he’s battled a few unlucky injuries, so it hasn’t given us the stability that we’d want in the goaltending (position). But, when he’s been in net, after we made the goaltending change last year, I think his record was 4-1. If I’m off, I apologize for not being exactly… I have it on my laptop here, I can look it up. This year, between January 1st until probably in his last two starts, I think he was first or second in save percentage. So, Matt has definitely displayed the qualities of an elite goalie in the NHL. We just want it to continue.”
When Murray had his hot stretch between January 13th and February 12th, he posted a 5-2-2 record, a 1.76 goals against average and a .949 save percentage. It was a reassuring sign that his career had a pulse because until that time, it would have been really easy to write his career off. Until that point, he has struggled to resemble the goaltender that he was when the Pittsburgh Penguins won two Stanley Cups with him as their goaltender. Between his inconsistencies on the ice and his health, it would be difficult to have any kind of confidence in his abilities to help push this team to the next competitive level.
I don’t know whether Pierre Dorion’s job could be in jeopardy this summer, but it’s hard to imagine ownership having much more patience in him if the Senators fare poorly in 2022-23. His job could very well be on the line next season and if it is, how comfortable can Dorion be entering the season with Murray as one of his guys?
On the organization being ready to move picks and prospects to upgrade the talent on the roster and whether the deadline provides an opportunity to do that or if the offseason is a more realistic time…
“Yes, I agree that you can only have so many picks and prospects, but at a certain time, you need to put the pieces all together to build a championship team. And definitely, with all the prospects and picks that we’ve gathered, it’s definitely something that we’ll look at. And, I believe that is something more for the summer than this trade deadline. But, as I’ve said previously, in a perfect world and I say this, in a perfect world we can make all the hockey deals that we want right now, but a lot of those players are on teams that are trying to win Cups. So, we’re not going to get those players. For us right now, obviously I think we’re looking at more of those types of deals (being available) at the draft or in the summer.”
If the Senators were going to make a hockey deal, the only one that would really make sense would be a deal that sees Erik Brannstrom be moved for another young asset who has failed to make his mark at the NHL level. With Jake Sanderson being set to join this team once his season is over at North Dakota, projecting out, Brannstrom’s niche with the Senators looks like a third-pairing/PP2 defenceman. There is certainly value to that kind of player, but he may offer the team more value as a trade commodity and it’s probably something that the organization will explore, or at least consider, this summer.
On the luxury of the team’s cap space and whether he could leverage that to help broker deals around the league to add more draft picks and assets…
“Without a doubt. If it helps the organization and we can add some assets that can help us win, we’ll look at that. A lot of times, you have to be a willing third party. If it’s to the benefit of the organization, we’ll always do that. But, at the same time, you have to make sure that you gain something out of it. And you don’t gain something out of it where it’s not more of a financial gain, it’s more of a, “Is it going to help you win when the puck drops in October?”
For years, ownership banged the drum and bragged about its financial flexibility and ability to add assets at the cost of taking on players. Last season’s deal that saw the Senators flip injured talent like Anders Nilsson and Marian Gaborik for Cedric Paquette, Braydon Coburn and a secound-round pick was sort of in that vein, but the team didn’t take on extra cash to make that move. When it comes to acquiring valuable picks at the simple cost of money and absorbing salary (ie. Patrick Marleau to the Hurricanes, Shayne Gostisbehere to the Coyotes), the organization just has not pulled the trigger. It fuels this perception that underlying money issues have exacerbated Ottawa’s ability to make these types of moves. Circumstances can change and hopefully Dorion can leverage his cap situation, but there are only so many times you can listen to empty promises before putting the onus on the organization to literally put its money where its mouth is.
On the goaltending situation and whether Anton Forsberg is attracting interest on the trade market…
“I’m not going to talk about specifics on players and who attracts attention on the trade market. I will tell you that my phone has not been ringing off the hook, but Anton’s play has been great. Anytime that he’s been asked to fill in since we picked him off waivers, he’s delivered. There’s been a few games where he’s bailed us out, but at the same time, we still have to field a competitive team from now to the end of the year. To move a player of that status for whatever the return might be… it might not be beneficial for us… whether it’s in Belleville, because I still that’s very important part of our development because you still need someone to play nets for you.”
Dorion certainly makes it sound like he has been underwhelmed by the offers so far. In Garrioch’s broadcast appearance yesterday, he anticipated the prospective return to be a third-round pick. He certainly made it seem like management would be underwhelmed by that kind of return, believing that it would be in the team’s best interests to re-sign Forsberg and look to move Gustavsson in the summer.
On whether he would be adverse to having three goaltenders on one-way contracts to start next year…
“I think that’s a bridge you cross when you get to it. If that’s the case.”
The inherent risks involved in the Matt Murray deal were always very real. I certainly understood management’s rationale for believing that Murray could be a viable option, but to let Pittsburgh off his cap hit, trade a valuable pick, award him with that contract value and term coming off two underwhelming seasons, it was gross negligence — especially since the NHL was headed towards Seattle’s expansion draft and a goaltending market that was flooded with alternatives.
On whether he has seen anything in his team this year, how it may affect how he approaches the deadline and whether there have been any performances that have surprised him…
“Yes, there have been a few people that we’ve added this year that I’ve really been impressed with. Obviously, Nick Holden is one person that we added that… I know we talked about him when we signed him, and we wanted to sign him… as far as a presence on and off the ice… not just his play but what he brings to our locker room. I think you look at some of the pending UFAs, as I talked about previously, to get a late-round pick for a guy that you might sign at the end of the year or you might sign in the summer, it’s not worth it to do it. We’re not at a point or stage where we need every late-round pick to hope to turn into something. We’ve got a lot of picks in this year’s draft. I think we’re third as far as… and again, if I’m off, I apologize. Picks change so many times. I think we’ve got the third-most number of picks in the draft. This team, I think the one thing that I can tell you is, I think we’re very well-coached. I think we play hard. There’s a lot of good hardworking character players on that team and they’re a really tight-knit group from what I’ve seen. Sometimes you want to see that to the end.”
The Senators currently own 10 picks in this year’s draft, but if they have concerns about adding more late-round picks to this crop, perhaps Dorion can get creative and ask for future picks one or two years down the road from now to help stagger the system and ensure it’s constantly replenished.
On thinking big picture and addressing a particular need…
“I think it’s no big secret. For us to hit the next level, we probably need a top-six forward and a top-four (defenceman), but those don’t grow on trees. We definitely have a top-four D in Jake Sanderson once he reaches maturity and he may even be a top-two D on our team. And then, I think we’ve got a few top-six forwards, but they’re not there yet. Whomever that may be, I don’t want to give too many compliments to our kids in Belleville or some of our kids that we have in junior. We all want them to earn it. Impactful… getting a top-four D and a top-six forward… those guys just don’t grow on trees and other general managers and organizations just don’t hand them out to the Ottawa Senators.”
The Senators probably need two defencemen. One in the top four would be a fantastic addition, but ideally, the Senators can find a way to upgrade its right side. The risk that the Senators carry forward is that Artyom Zub will be eligible for unrestricted free agency following the 2022-23 season and veterans like Nikita Zaitsev and Josh Brown have been ineffective this season. The organization does have young assets like Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker within its pro ranks, but while both players have had their respective turns in the lineup this season, it remains to be seen whether either player will be ready next season. And more importantly, it is one thing to be an NHL regular, but it’s another entirely to thrive and play a valued contributor.
On his thoughts on Tyler Boucher since he joined the Ottawa 67’s…
“I’ve seen Tyler live once. I’ve watched his shifts from two other games, I believe. I’ve been really impressed. Obviously, when you haven’t played much hockey over the last 12 months, there’s going to be an adaptation period. Obviously, he didn’t play a lot last year and he wasn’t playing a big role at (Boston University). He got hurt in his first game, so he hasn’t played a lot of hockey. But, I think every team that wins has a Tyler Boucher on their team. I think with the drive, the physical play, the going inside, (the way) he shoots the puck, and we’ve seen all of that. We want to see it more consistently, but I think that will come in time. When we’re a championship team down the road, I think he’ll be a big part of it.”
Talking to friends who have watched the 67’s regularly, Boucher has fit in nicely and developed some chemistry playing with Cam Tolnai and Jack Beck. Not surprisingly for a player of Boucher’s size, his physical presence has been a welcome addition to the team’s forecheck, offensive zone cycle and netfront presence on the power play.
On an update to Jake Sanderson’s health and whether there’s a plan to get him here this season for games…
“So everyone knows, both myself and Pierre McGuire went to Grand Forks and we had supper with Jake Sanderson and Tyler Kleven. We hadn’t really had a chance to spend a lot of time together because we’ve had no development camps. We both obviously spoke to Jake and Tyler. With Tyler, we’re going to leave him to make whatever decision he wants to make at the end of the year. But, it’s pretty much written in stone, and Jake told me himself, once his year is done… and hopefully his year is done after they win the Frozen Four and they win the NCAA championship because you want to bring winners into the organization… possibly the Hobey Baker, we’ll see about that one. I don’t know with his injuries if he's going to get enough consideration. But, a lot of people tell me he’s by far the best player in college hockey, if not the best defenceman outside the NHL. So, Jake will be joining our team. He knows it. I’ve even heard rumours about living arrangements, so once his season is done, he’ll be joining the Ottawa Senators. As far as the injury, I’d rather North Dakota discuss that, but it doesn’t appear to be too serious. I think they’re just resting him for the playoffs.”
Adding Jake Sanderson to Ottawa’s ranks this season was a foregone conclusion, but it’s intriguing to hear that Tyler Kleven could actually be poised to make a decision on his pro future shortly. Even if Sanderson plays out the rest of the regular season in Ottawa, the prospect of seeing him and potentially Kleven join Belleville’s lineup for the postseason is certainly something to get excited about.
On where he envisions Erik Brannstrom fitting in with the team’s future projections…
“It wouldn’t be a media Zoom call without an Erik Brannstrom question. For us… personally, I think he’s the most improved player on this team. I think the fact that the confidence that DJ (Smith) has given him and the work they’ve done together with Jack Capuano has shown us that Erik, at times, can be a really good NHL defenceman. There are nights that he’s still a young defenceman. We have to think that… to me, you get a really good true gauge of what an NHL defenceman is or was going to be until he’s played about 200 games in the league. But, we see him on our team next year. Having too many NHL quality defencemen is a good problem to have.”
Using Dorion’s gauge, Brannstrom only has 91 games of NHL experience under his belt. He will turn 23 years old this September however, and he has played parts of four professional seasons in North America. There is still time for his game to find another gear, but as an undersized defenceman, my concerns are that he simply hasn’t demonstrated enough upside and transitional ability to overcome his deficiencies. For a player with his skillset and puck-moving ability, the Senators have never enjoyed strong underlying numbers (shot rates, goal rates, expected goal rates) when Brannstrom has been on the ice at five-on-five.
There have certainly been glimpses of upside, but they haven’t been demonstrated consistently enough. And in fairness to the player, some of that has probably been a function of injuries and the coaching staff’s reluctance to play him regularly despite an obvious lack of quality alternatives. We are getting close to a point where whatever residual trade value Brannstrom carries from being a once highly-regarded prospect may cease to exist. If Ottawa doesn’t believe that Brannstrom’s value is best served when he’s playing in the lineup, the team should probably look at what kind of trade packages they can use him in this offseason.
On Colin White’s role and what it has to be moving forward to justify his cap hit moving forward…
“Obviously, the injury was unfortunate in camp. He’s come back from injury and he’s played well. As far as his role, I leave that to the coach. I’ve always said that I get my hands full managing. I’ll leave that role for DJ. But, (White’s) someone that can play on our power play. He’s someone that goes inside. He goes to the net. If you look at how he gets his points, most of his points are within a 10’ radius of the net. I love that about Colin White. I just love the fact that he goes inside. I still feel that he’s got to play himself… you know, all these players for the most part have played since October. And, Colin just came back and he’s performed well. I still feel that he’s got to get himself into better… not physical shape, just game conditioning and I think we’re going to see a Colin White that can definitely help us.”
It sounds like the organization and his teammates just love Colin White. It’s just unfortunate that with three years left on a contract that will pay him $4.75 million in the first two years and then $6.25 million in the third year, management may decide that it is in their best interests to buy him out at one-third the value of his contract. Thanks to the presence of Shane Pinto, Josh Norris and Tim Stützle down the middle, there just isn’t a huge need for Colin White as a depth centre. Although he certainly provides some positional flexibility and offers right-wing depth, it is just too easy to look at the money owed to him and believe that his money could be reallocated to other areas of need.
On Belleville’s push for the playoffs and whether the organization will look to bolster its AHL roster…
“Well, I know Peter MacTavish is always looking to shore up their roster. I think we’ve got our hands full here with Ottawa, but I think if we can add a veteran… obviously, some players might go down there for the run, but we like what we have in Belleville right now. In having a chance to see them quite a bit, and I’ll watch the game on TV tonight – them and Manitoba at 8 pm ET or 7 pm local – I’ll be able to assess the situation. We’ve had people down there for weeks at a time. I know Pierre McGuire has gone down there for almost a full week. And, we feel that we have a real good group of players. I think part of it is letting those young players take part in a playoff experience. You have to be careful of how you allot your ice time and I leave that up to Troy (Mann). But, at this point in time, I think we’re in a good spot.”
That is a great point by Dorion. As enticing as it would be to help beef up Belleville’s roster, he has to balance that competitive desire with an acknowledgment that he doesn’t want to box his prospects out of playing meaningful roles.
On whether he anticipates in the next 10 days that talks will pick up and whether there is a game plan in place to handle the deadline…
“Yeah, it’s very simple. All the scouts will be in… a lot of them are coming in Tuesday to Belleville… pro scouts… and will be in Ottawa on Wednesday. We obviously play Columbus on Wednesday. Trent Mann will be in town on Thursday. Obviously, when prospects come along… I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but don’t get too excited for this trade deadline. In all my years as GM, this has been the quietest. When you talk to teams that could be offloading players, quite a few of them have been extremely quiet.”
As one of the more active general managers in the league, hopefully, Dorion’s able to pull the strings on a few deals to bolster Ottawa’s draft pick capital. Some of Dorion’s comments may just be posturing in hopes of better trade offers, but it certainly sounds like the Senators are content to ride out the season with what they have — emphasizing keeping its prospects in Belleville in place for a playoff push.
https://autopod.isilive.ca/podcasts/chum/186/93198/pierredorion.mp3