Thoughts in Bold: Dorion on TSN 1200 Yesterday

With the organization promoting its amateur scouting sessions, Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion jumped on TSN 1200 yesterday afternoon to talk with Brad Smyth and AJ Jakubec about the latest happenings with his club.

If you are not familiar with the format of this article, I have transcribed Dorion’s interview below. After each of his responses, I have included my own thoughts which will be highlighted in bold. To listen to the full interview, use the link at the bottom of this post.

Here we go…

On what he has been up to since the season ended…

“It’s been, pretty much since the season ended, it’s been chaotic and hectic. Obviously, I was at the Worlds until last week. I came back for a day. Went to Winnipeg. I got back and started our amateur scouting meetings on Monday. Those will go until probably Friday or Saturday. Next week is the combine. The following week of the 6th is the pro (scouting) meetings. So, it’s a very busy time of the year for us.”

There was no explanation provided as to why Dorion was in Winnipeg. It may have been a personal or family-related trip, but Winnipeg’s not exactly a beacon of tourism these days. The Manitoba Moose’s Calder Cup playoffs ended on May 15th, so that rules that possibility out. The only explanation was that Dorion traveled there to watch Matthew Savoie and Connor Geekie’s Winnipeg Ice take on the Edmonton Oil Kings in the WHL Eastern Conference Final.

According to Central Scouting’s final rankings, Savoie and Geekie are the fourth and fifth-highest rated prospects in North America and both will likely be available when the Senators will be on the clock with the seventh overall selection.

The general manager has acknowledged that he could be influenced to move their top pick under the right circumstances, but Dorion’s attendance at these games might signify that the team could be leaning towards keeping its pick because any offers out there right now simply are not good enough.

Of course, the general manager could simply be doing his due diligence, as well.

On what he makes of the NHL playoffs thus far…

“I’ve watched a lot of the first round. Even though I was in Europe, at 2 am, I’d somehow find a way to get up and watch a lot of the series that were going on. Around 4:30 Helsinki time, I’d find a way to watch a bit of hockey when I got back. My body needed to adjust, but I found the first round was unbelievable. I found it was some of the best hockey that I’ve seen in a long time. It was competitive. Obviously, I watched a bit more of the series in the East than the West coast, but I thought it was unbelievable. The compete level, the execution and the energy was something that hopefully we can get there sooner than later with the Ottawa Senators.”

The first and second rounds have been exceptional and there have been no shortage of scoring or stories of interest. To watch these games without any emotional investment whatsoever while just enjoying the quality of the product has been incredibly entertaining. The talent and pace of play is just astonishing at times and it definitely makes you envious of other clubs and recognize how Ottawa still has a little ways to go in its developmental path.

On watching the playoffs and seeing any trends that are more prevalent…

“No, I think in the first round, contrary to other years, you saw more penalties being called. I don’t know if the numbers reflect that, but it felt like in previous years, it’d be two penalties a side. In this first round, you saw more penalties and you saw more goals than in previous years. It felt like you saw more goals. So, I don’t think there might have been as much clutching, grabbing and interference because you saw some interference penalties being called. As far as style of play, I think it was a bit more wide open. I can tell you it was definitely entertaining to watch. Whether you work in hockey or you’re a hockey fan, it was as good as I’ve seen in the last few years.”

No arguments here.

On watching this playoffs and how close he feels this team is or what needs to be addressed on the roster…

“Well obviously, we’d like to get there sooner than later. The first step is to get into the playoffs and once you get in, anything can happen. Obviously, there are some really strong teams in the playoffs. We’ve never hid the fact that we’d like to add a top-four defenceman, but those don’t grow on trees. As I’ve said previously, I think every team that pretty much needed a top-four defenceman went and got one before the playoffs and paid a significant price for it. Obviously, we’d also like to add some depth and some scoring up front.  And, those are two things that we know that we have to do internally. Whether that is sacrificing prospects, picks, current player within our own roster, that’s something that we’ll look at in the offseason.”

It is interesting that he believes the team needs to add another top-four defenceman. After the team acquired Travis Hamonic, I was wondering whether he would slide into that role regardless of his true talent level and underlying numbers. The organization has Thomas Chabot and Artyom Zub who it can comfortably fit into two of the top-four slots, but the expectation is that Jake Sanderson will or should be able to fill another one of those slots as early as this fall. That leaves players like Erik Brannstrom, Nick Holden, Nikita Zaitsev and the aforementioned Hamonic to fill the rest of the spots. I have a hard time believing that the Senators would like to add another left-shot defenceman to bump Sanderson down to third-pairing minutes, but maybe the organization wants to insulate him. Then again, in his end of the year address with the media, Dorion admitted that he’d like to get a contract done with Erik Brannstrom soon. If that’s the case with Nick Holden already under wraps, the only explanation is that the team would be looking to add on the right side. With Zaitsev, Zub and Hamonic already under contract for next season, someone would have to go. Zaitsev’s the obvious candidate because of his poor metrics and struggles to move the puck. That he is owed a $2.0 million signing bonus on July 1st only adds some financial incentive to find a deal for him now. If the Senators cannot move Zaitsev though, it makes the Hamonic add a little more suspect given its timing. Perhaps the organization wanted to insulate itself against the possibility that Zub could bolt as an unrestricted free agent next summer, but if the intent is to upgrade the right side, adding Hamonic when they did makes for a very curious decision.

On updating the status of some of the injured players…

“As far as I know, Matt (Murray) was in here yesterday. Not that I want to talk about his family situation, but I think they lost power yesterday. So, I saw him in the building yesterday and he looked great. He’ll be ready for camp. He was in good spirits. He’s working out. So, I believe… he talked and he had a concussion. He’s working out right now, so we don’t see any hurdles for him playing for us. He was really trying to push hard to get to play for Canada at the World Championships, but he just didn’t have enough time (to recover).”

It is easy to be empathetic with a player who was just starting to find his game. The nine-game stretch that Murray displayed early in 2022 provided a glimpse of what the Senators envisioned when they acquired him from Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, injuries derailed that promising small sample size of games and it feels like we are almost back at square one with Murray. How much confidence and faith can the Senators put in this small sample when they have an asset who struggles with inconsistencies in his game and poor health? Obviously, Murray has little to no control over his injuries, but with two years left on his deal, it is hard not to look at his contract and dream on the ways that the organization could reallocate the money owed to him.

On addressing those needs and whether the seventh overall pick could be used to land one of those needs…

“No, I think we’ve got to look at everything. We’re having amateur scouting meetings right now and I can get more into that and how we go about that putting a list together. But, Trent Mann and his group have done a really good job of stockpiling our prospects. We had a year where we had three first rounders. It will be three years ago now when we took Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson and Ridly Greig. Maybe this is the year that we sacrifice… not sacrifice, that we move pick seven to get an impact player that can help us right away. We’re not going to go and get a guy that’s a pending UFA in a year’s time. I don’t think that’d be really smart for us to do. But, if we can get a guy that we know we will have control over for more than a few years, that’s something that we would definitely look at. It’s no secret that we have a lot of good, young players. If we can add an impact player or someone that can come in and help us get to that next level is something that we’ll definitely look at.”

This is probably the juiciest piece of news in the entire interview. On one hand, Dorion recognizes that this may be the most ideal time to move a high and valuable asset. With the depth of forwards that the Senators have accrued in recent years, it certainly could give the team pause to consider using the pick — in what’s widely been considered a draft lacking safely projectable generational talent — to acquire an NHL-ready asset that the team can use to support the young talent on its roster.

At the same time, it is really important to recognize that Dorion understands it is not in the team’s best interests to move such a valuable asset without ensuring that the return is centered around a very good player who has years of controllable term left on his deal. As I articulated in a recent post, this was one of the problems of the Matt Duchene trade, and it sounds like Dorion has learned his lesson.

Kevin Fiala is the obvious trade target that the Senators keep getting linked to, but he is a restricted free agent that has one season left of restricted free agent status before he can walk as an unrestricted free agent. Without coming out and expressly stating it, Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin has effectively hinted at the reality of trading Fiala. But, despite being a potentially good fit for the player, the Senators would not only need Fiala to sign an extension before the deal, they would also need him to sign a team-friendly contract that ensures it does not hamper the team’s ability to keep its young core intact for the foreseeable future.

Fiala also turns 26 this July, so the Senators will have to weigh whether it wants to reallocate big money to a player for the next seven seasons knowing it will probably get three to four good years out of him before the possibility of diminishing returns kicks in. If the team’s perceived window of contention is there in the next three or four years, maybe it makes sense to roll the dice on Fiala. He will assuredly outproduce whomever the Senators take over the first three years of the deal.

If the outlook of Cup contention is a little further away, maybe Dorion balks and elects to roll the dice on the kind of prospects available with the seventh overall pick because that prospect stands a chance of being a very productive player three to five years down the line.

Or, if Dorion’s concerned about his long-term future with the organization because of the risk of new ownership arriving in the next year or two, maybe you just don’t care and pull the trigger while you can.

On Zach Ostapchuk’s postseason production with the Vancouver Giants and his future outlook…

“We always believe in players figuring out what role they’re going to play. Where is Ridly Greig going to play one day in the Ottawa Senators lineup? Where is Zach Ostapchuk going to play one day in the Ottawa Senators lineup? I went out to see him play in March and I was very impressed with his work ethic. The Vancouver Giants GM came up to me and said he was one of the best captains they’ve ever had. That’s saying a lot for someone who’s an 18-year-old and not a 19-year-old. He’s a big body. He plays the game the right way. That game he knocked out a bigger opponent. He had a fight. Not that I care that much as much about that, I just care about how they play. I was impressed. He really played the game the right way. He had a tremendous playoffs. They upset someone in the first round. He had a good round. He was leading the playoff scoring for a while. So, I think it says a lot about what we have. We have a good prospect there. Hopefully, he can battle for a spot in the world juniors that will be coming up this August and the one obviously in December and January. And, then we’ll see what comes with him, but he’s someone, not that I want to talk too much about him, he’s someone that after a few scrimmages, I turned to Peter MacTavish and I talked to D.J. (Smith). We talked to the staff and we got him signed right out of camp. We knew we had a really good prospect there and we wanted to get him signed right away. We did that at last year’s camp.”

Even though Ostapchuk’s Vancouver Giants were ousted in the second round of the WHL playoffs by Kamloops, he is still ranked fourth overall in playoff scoring with seven goals and 16 assists in just 12 games. Ostapchuk only had 26 goals and 43 points in 60 regular season games, so this uptick in production was a welcomed change. It could be result of a smaller sample size, but hopefully, the added offence is a function of the player unearthing some untapped offensive talent. For a farm system that has and will graduate most of its safely projectable high-end talent, it would be a boon if some of its projected “depth guys” overachieve and exceed expectations.

On whether Ostapchuk’s offence was a nice surprise…

“Our guys saw him, whether it was a third-line or a second (line) guy when we drafted him, they knew about the character and they knew about the work ethic. Those guys always tend to improve and sometimes overachieve and that’s the reason why we took him at that position. A lot of credit goes to our scouts for taking him at that position. I think we’ll see what happens next year. We’ll see how he looks in camp. Most likely, he’ll go back to junior next year. How he looks with the Vancouver Giants next year and moving forward, but he’s someone that I think his offensive upside is something that was untapped before.”

Hopefully, Ostapchuk’s finish puts him on the radar for Team Canada’s World Junior entry. Not only would it help his confidence, but speaking selfishly here, it would also give the rest of us an extended opportunity to watch him play.

On how the Ottawa Senators are faring over at the World Championships…

“Obviously, I went to the World (Championships) to see some of the draft eligible guys and there are a few high-end guys that are there that could be in the mix at six, seven. There’s a few guys that I watched that could probably be in the mix for a second-round pick. Obviously, I saw Canada a bit more than a few other teams, but Thomas (Chabot) had a really good few games. I talked to D.J. (Smith) this morning and he seemed very happy. Drake (Batherson) has found his form from probably pre-injury when he was our best performer. So, those two guys have been good. Nick Holden has been solid like he was here. Austin Watson and Adam Gaudette have done the job for the U.S. I think Adam has produced offensively and Austin has played his role that he has played here where he kills penalties and he checks. So, they’ve all performed very well. Tim Stützle, just to give everyone an update, we’re really fortunate that Dr. Aubry and Dr. Cregan were, and also Dom Nicoletta, our head athletic therapist is with Canada. They all had a chance to see him and observe him. Really, it’s just a recurring… the same injury that he had previously when he missed games. Everyone felt that seven to 14 days was the time he needs off, so won’t be playing for Germany. We feel bad because getting to play in the quarterfinal of a World Championship would have been really beneficial for Timmy’s development.”

It is encouraging to hear that Stützle’s knee injury is not considered too serious or that it will affect his ability to train this offseason in preparation for training camp. The player has to be disappointed that he will no longer have an opportunity to represent his country in the elimination stages of the tournament, but it’s hard to believe that missing an extra game or two would have any real impact on his development as a player. After the steps and progress that Stützle made as a centre this season, he is simply way too talented to ever have any real concerns about his development. With or without these Germany games, he is still going to turn into one hell of a dynamic player.

On keeping the possibility of keeping the pick at seven and how this draft rates relative to previous years…

“Optimist at number seven is you’re going to get a good player. There’s no doubt about that. We’ll see how the list falls after this week and after we sit down at the combine. After we do some interviews, we may bring some players into Ottawa, so we’ll have a better idea after we spend some time with them. But, from seeing what I’ve seen through the year discussing with Trent Mann, who does a good job, we’re going to get a good player. I wouldn’t say we’re going to get a superstar, but we’re going to get a good NHL player. Whether that is a top-six forward or a top-four (defenceman), I know at the end of the line, that player will fill that role for sure once he’s reached full maturity. It’s doubtful that he plays for us next year, but depending on who the player is, he could play for us in two years.”

Dorion certainly does not sound like a guy who is sold on moving this pick. Perhaps if Tyler Boucher had a stronger season, it would have helped sway the general manager to lean more towards moving the pick. But, whether the organization keeps or moves it, the Senators need to maximize this pick’s value. A rebuild cannot be successful if you do not capitalize of the opportunities presented by picking high. If it returns the organization a top prospect who will be relatively inexpensive through the first seven years of his career, awesome. If it returns the team a cost-controlled talent on a long-term deal, great. Teams aren’t often looking to move those kinds of talents, however, so it may make finding a deal difficult.

On Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker’s development and whether he anticipates that one will be ready to make the jump to the NHL next season…

“One problem to have is that you can never have enough NHL calibre defencemen. As you saw the previous year, guys go down all the time. You get injuries. You need… most teams… I think we used, and if I’m off, I apologize, I think we used 11 last year. And if I’m off, I apologize. But, I was impressed with the play of both Bernard-Docker and Thomson, and as well as Max Guenette. We felt that Max Guenette made huge strides if you’re looking at the right-hand side. Obviously, Lassi probably had a better first half than a second half, but in the last month, Bernard-Docker and for the two games in the playoffs I was there, Bernard-Docker was our best defenceman. I think both, I think, are knocking at the door of the NHL. It’s not the worst thing to overdevelop a defenceman, so that when you call them back up or when they’re here, they’re here for the long run. At times last year, Lassi was leaking a bit of oil. And at times, it was a bit too much for Bernard-Docker. But, they’re not the same players. At the upcoming training camp, they won’t be the same players that they were during the year last year. They will both have taken a step. We’ll see how the chips may fall. They both, those two guys have top-four potential. I feel that Max Guenette has NHL potential. He probably started the furthest and made the biggest strides. But, all three of those guys, we feel, could be NHL defencemen with different kinds of impacts down the road once they’ve reached their full maturity.”

Given what Dorion said earlier about the team’s interest in acquiring a top-four defenceman, I wonder whether both Bernard-Docker and Thomson can be considered trade bait. The organization has certainly invested time and money into both players, but if Dorion goes out and acquires a top-four defenceman who would likely play the right-side, these prospects would essentially be boxed out of a top-four spot for the foreseeable future (read: assuming Zub signs an extension of his own). The Senators do need inexpensive, young players to graduate through the ranks to play depth roles, but if neither safely projects to play top-four minutes, maybe the best value they offer to the Senators is their inherent trade value as prospects.

On what Belleville Senators have a chance to play next season out of training camp…

“I think you’ve got to look at the way Mark Kastelic played. He’s definitely someone who when he was up here, he showed that he can play in the NHL. Can he play 82 games? That will be up to him and how he plays once camp starts. We’ve got quite a few exhibition games. I’m sure we’ll announce our exhibition game schedule soon, so he’ll get his chance. I think (Egor) Sokolov is knocking on the door. I think we just want to see a bit more consistency out of him. In a very short sample size, (Viktor) Lodin because he’s an older prospect showed us he could possibly… I think if we’re realistic, he’ll need to Christmas, but he’s someone that has high ability. So, up front, those are the guys that could be knocking on the door as far as camp. Obviously, the defencemen that we talked about. Coming out of junior, the one guy that is coming here to get a job is Ridly Greig – who a lot of people we felt was maybe one of the best players in the WHL this year. But, that’s a moot argument made one way or another. Those would be the guys that could be knocking on the door once training camp starts.”

Greig is the prospect to keep an eye on because of his first-round pedigree and his exceptional WHL season. Drafted as a player who many scouts believed would fulfill a depth role at the NHL level, Greig amassed a whopping 26 goals and 63 points with Brandon. Greig played centre, but some scouts feel he projects better as a left-wing at the pro level. With Stützle’s shift to centre, it certainly opens up a spot on the left side for Greig to claim. The Senators could certainly try to play Alex Formenton on the second-line left-wing slot, but ideally, he will be a very good third-liner when this team is at its peak. Scouts appeared to be down on Greig’s offensive upside during his draft year, but maybe that has changed after his season in Brandon. If it has, maybe there’s a chance for him to play in a top-six capacity here in Ottawa down the road.

On an update on Jake Sanderson’s health…

“Jake is on the right path. Obviously, from the time that he reinjured it before our last two games of the year, it was going to be six weeks in a cast. We had to put him back in a cast to make sure that nothing would happen. If you know anything about Jake Sanderson, how he handles himself, how he’s already a pro and has a maturity beyond his years, he’ll be ready for camp. He’ll be at development camp when development camp happens right after the draft. So, we’ll have a chance to see him most likely. Unless there’s something that I’m not aware of, but at that point in time, he’ll be skating and our fans will get a chance to see him.”

#Sanderseason

On plans for hockey ops and whether there are any plans to add to the group this offseason…

“I think as a whole organization, we’re really starting to staff up post-pandemic. Obviously, I think it’s something that we’re going to look at… the business side is going to look at. We know we need to add people, but in adding people, we’ve got to add good people too at the same time.”

After Pierre McGuire’s dismissal to an already short-staffed front office, this was always going to be the concern. The pro scouting side of things could certainly use a boost, but this team has fallen so far behind the curve when it comes to analytics and what other organizations are doing. The organization has always tended to hide behind its budgets by emphasizing the need to hire “good people”, but after all this time, the message is pretty easy to see through.

CONCLUSIONS:

I believe it was Dorion’s first media appearance since the unceremonious firing of Pierre McGuire, but unfortunately, the subject was never broached. Given the interest in McGuire’s hiring and termination, it is disappointing to see that questions about the front office and their working relationship never arose. The radio station was unwilling to discuss or analyze Ian Mendes’ piece on the abhorrent environment that some employees were subjected to during the Melnyk era for some very obvious reasons. It certainly feels reasonable to believe that the hosts were informed that Dorion would not address any questions related to McGuire’s tenure or dismissal.

And, that’s unfortunate because I believe it never addresses any of the questions or concerns that the fans have about the operations and abilities of an already small front office.

Dorion would never bury McGuire publicly, but it would have been nice to hear about what his roles and responsibilities were throughout the year and what influence or impact he may have had on player acquisitions or the organization’s decisions.

Not addressing or acknowledging reasonable questions feels like a giant disservice to a fan base. Whether it is intentional by design, it does nothing to quell some of the distrust that has been fostered over the years by the organization’s desire to have an unquestioning media. Want unfettered access? Treat the organization with kid gloves and don’t offer critical analysis that may not be particularly flattering.

It’s frustrating to watch unfold, but this relationship is something that fans certainly have to be cognizant of moving forward.

Aside from that detail, however, I thought this was probably one of Dorion’s best interviews in quite some time. His answers were measured and his answer to moving the seventh overall pick, in particular, was encouraging. As a general manager who has repeatedly made mistakes when assessing his team’s true talent level and emphasized short-term results over patient growth, Dorion said some important things — emphasizing the importance of acquiring a player under team control, for example.

Obviously, that does not preclude the Senators from making an ill-advised deal, but at least he’s acknowledging and addressing the cost/benefit analysis that exists at this present time. I know that can seem like such a small bar to clear, but that is the reality of being a Senators fan and understanding what fans have had to endure for the better part of the last two decades.

https://autopod.isilive.ca/podcasts/chum/179/94636/Pierre%20Dorion.mp3