The Yakemchuk Decision

Coming off a nondescript performance at the 2024 Prospects Challenge in Buffalo, it is almost hard to believe that almost a month later, we are talking about the very realistic possibility that Carter Yakemchuk is going to open the season playing for the Ottawa Senators.

That is not meant to knock the lone blue-chip talent within the Senators’ pipeline. It is just that when a player is taken that high, it is customary to set these unfair and often unrealistic expectations in which you want to see said player dominate the competition. That did not happen in Buffalo, but in fairness to Yakemchuk, the roster that the Senators sent was not exactly brimming with safely projectable future NHL talent.

The experience did leave me wanting to see how Yakemchuk would look playing with more capable talent, and fortunately, to his credit, all he has done since arriving at the main camp is work hard and produce results. Through four preseason games, the 19-year-old leads all defencemen in scoring with two goals and seven points and has averaged 21:06 of ice time per game.

Yakemchuk has not played sheltered minutes. He logged 23:01 in his first appearance while playing alongside Thomas Chabot against a relatively strong Toronto Maple Leafs lineup. Last night, he contributed two assists while leading all skaters in ice time (24:19) in the Senators’ come-from-behind win over the Detroit Red Wings - a Wings team that featured a roster comprised of NHL regulars.

The Senators have one preseason game remaining, and a lot of the discourse for the next few days will revolve around what is best for the talented Yakemchuk.

Much of the discussion will be focused on his defensive play, and understandably so. It is not easy for young players to jump straight to the game’s highest level and be effective right away.

Through his four preseason games, the underlying numbers have not been great. When Yakemchuk has been on the ice, the Senators have only generated 42.37 percent of the shots (CF%), 41.51 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 44.44 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 33.98 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). It is a small sample size of preseason data, so it is difficult to read too much into it, especially when the rosters being used are hardly representative of the teams’ true talent levels.

It takes time, and knowing that, returning Yakemchuk to junior, where he can log huge minutes and play in every situation, is the safe route. Letting a well-regarded prospect marinate at the lower levels rarely adversely affects his development. With the 2025 World Junior Championships being held in Ottawa, the hope is that Yakemchuk can follow in the footsteps of Erik Karlsson and his 2009 appearance here in the nation’s capital and carry that momentum into the 2025-26 season.

On the other hand, his junior team, the Calgary Hitmen, are not projected to be a powerhouse team. Yakemchuk’s production and performance certainly warrant an extended look. The Senators can keep him around for upwards of nine games before a decision must be made on whether or not to return him to junior. If he appears in a 10th game, the first year of his entry-level contract will be burned.

Yakemchuk’s competition for the third-pairing role is not particularly strong either. Although Jacob Bernard-Docker played regularly last season and appeared in 72 games, his performance was at a sub-replacement level. Bernard-Docker does have the distinction of being a first-round pick from the 2018 draft, so there is still some hope of untapped upside — especially for a player who spent his first full season in the NHL. At the same time, at 24 years of age, there has to be a proportionate recognition that this version of Bernard-Docker might be all that he is.

Many within the organization have pointed out how Travis Hamonic looks better following offseason surgery to repair an issue with his knee, but he's a player who hasn’t contributed positive value to an organization since the 2018-19 season in Calgary per Evolving-Hockey.

For two players who bear the distinction of being “defensive defencemen”, if they have a history of sub-replacement level defence, Hamonic and Bernard-Docker do not represent high bars for Yakemchuk to clear.

Perhaps if there was an offensive left-shot defenceman who was earmarked for the third pairing, I would be more concerned about Yakemchuk’s usage and the possibility of the pairing getting exposed. Tyler Kleven is expected to win that job outright, so there is a more balanced look to that prospective pairing.

Yakemchuk also boasts some excellent transition skills with his ability to headman the puck and get it up the ice quickly. He also possesses a booming shot that makes him an attractive option to use on the power play. These distinctions help separate him from the alternatives.

It has been pointed out to me on social media that other prospects have floundered when they have been “rushed” to the parent level. The mention of Curtis Lazar’s name is often used as a harbinger of rushed development. No prospect’s development is the same, however. They are all different people from varying backgrounds with different skill sets.

Lazar never had high-end offensive aptitude or physical tools. He was a blue-collar player who showed a willingness to go to areas of traffic. When the Senators loaned him to Canada’s 2015 World Junior Championship entry, despite his professional hockey experience, he looked like one of the least skilled players on the roster.

Yakemchuk has the innate talent that separates him from his peers. It is what made him the seventh overall selection from the 2024 NHL Draft. There are no questions about his skills or offensive ability. The only questions pertain to his footwork and his ability to mitigate the attacks of the opposing forwards at the NHL level right away.

Based on his performance thus far, he deserves that opportunity. If there is a chance that he is a significantly better alternative to those other depth right defencemen, the Senators would be doing themselves a disservice not to explore the possibility.

And, if he struggles in the early going, at least they have afforded themselves the flexibility to see if he can build off an impressive preseason.

Other News and Notes:

• The Senators’ communication team announced that the organization had assigned Tyler Boucher, Angus Crookshank, Stephen Halliday, Hayden Hodgson and Filip Roos to Belleville.

• Defenceman Cale Addison was released from his PTO. It was an unspectacular showing for the 2018 second-round pick. His underlying shot and goal-based metrics were some of the worst on the team. Between Yakemchuk’s performance and the presence of Bernard-Docker and Hamonic, there just was no space for Addison.

• The Montreal Canadiens will not be playing their first line tonight per Eric Engels. Head coach Martin St. Louis is guarding against the possibility of injury. The undisciplined Arber Xhekaj will apparently be in the lineup to crank the temperature up. This is the second of three meetings between the two teams in the course of two weeks. The teams will also meet for a regular season game on Saturday, October 12th in Montreal.