The Week's News and Notes: Ottawa's pipeline ranked highly, Gustavsson's contract,
We are mere weeks away from the start of training camp, so naturally, the flow of hockey news will ramp up.
As part of his series grading the NHL’s 32 prospect pipelines, The Athletic’s Corey Pronman rated the Senators as having the second-highest ranked collection of players who are under 23 years of age.
That may come as a surprise to some simply because The Athletic was the same publication in which two of its prospect analysts soured on the Senators’ 2021 draft selections. If you will recall, Pronman gave the Senators a ‘D’ letter grade while colleague Scott Wheeler referred to the franchise as one of the ‘losers’ of the 2021 NHL Draft — ranking them 32nd as having the least valuable collection of picks.
So, what gives?
The easiest explanation is that the Senators’ ranking is predicated on two factors. The first is that the Senators’ U23 collection of players is headlined by a few top-five picks: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson. There simply are not that many teams around the league that can boast about having that kind of talent.
Tkachuk has developed into one of the most unique talents in the NHL bridging a physical dynamic with some good offensive aptitude. The ‘power forward’ label is thrown around pretty liberally, but Tkachuk’s the definitive power forward of the modern era.
Tim Stützle’s rookie campaign was filled with ups and downs. That was to be expected for a player experiencing his first professional season in North America, let alone someone who is trying to adjust and figure out what does and does not work in the NHL against the world’s best players. The underlying metrics for Stützle may not have been pretty, but in watching his season progress, the blend of skill, skating and deception was on full display. In each game, there were moments of flash and subtlety that just made you stop and shake your head. There is just so much inherent offensive talent in Stützle that I have a hard time believing that someone this dynamic will struggle to develop into a star offensive player.
Josh Norris was listed as Pronman’s third-ranked player and understandably so. With all of the accompanying hype of being the third overall selection in the 2020 NHL Draft, Tim Stützle captured all of the attention and headlines. It was fellow rookie Norris who put together the most impressive freshman season. Although he started the season in a sheltered role, by the end of the year, Norris had passed every other centre on the depth chart and was anchoring the first line with Tkachuk and Drake Batherson — giving the Senators an excellent young trio to build around for the foreseeable future.
Norris scored 17 goals and 35 points in 56 games. Across a regular 82-game schedule, he produced at a 25-goal and 51-point pace. As impressive as that offence was, Norris also proved that he could play difficult minutes against tough competition.
According to Hockeyviz.com’s data, Norris was not overwhelmed defensively.
Internal growth and improvements to the blue line will also help go a long way to remedying Ottawa’s team defence, but Norris continues to work hard and play with diligence, there’s a good chance that he could wind up developing into one of the best two-way centres that the organization has ever developed.
Beyond Norris, Sanderson and the rest of Ottawa’s young players have either played sparingly at the NHL level or not at all. Prospect attrition is a real thing and not every one of Ottawa’s prospects are going to work out. Some will inevitably flame out or be dealt as assets to bring in more experienced (and hopefully talented) alternatives.
Through this quality and the sheer volume of picks that the Senators have acquired in recent years, it is a recipe for a strong ranking. The Senators have added value and pundits like Pronman have recognized that, but where recent poor draft grades come from stems from the fact that pundits believed the Senators left additional value on the draft floor.
It will take some time for the draft results to play out, but considering how much equity the Senators’ amateur scouting staff has built up in recent years, hearing a different perspective — especially one that believes that things should have been even better — is something that fans can reflexively dismiss.
At the very least, it creates some interesting fodder for discussion and debate. We’re just going to have to wait a few years for the results to play out.
Gustavsson Re-Signs
On Sunday, the Senators announced that they had re-signed goaltender Filip Gustavsson to a two-year deal carrying an average annual value of $787,500.
Like a few contracts that the Senators have signed in the past for its young goaltenders, the first year of Gustavsson’s contract carries a two-way clause before becoming a one-way deal in the second year of his contract.
With his performance down the stretch for the Senators last season, Gustavsson emerged and restored a lot of confidence in his value as a goaltender who should be able to play at the NHL level.
In nine games, Gustavsson compiled a 5-1-2 record while posting a goals average of 2.16 and a .933 save percentage. It was the best stretch of goaltending that the Senators enjoyed last season and because of it, it made Joey Daccord expendable as an unprotected asset in the expansion draft.
At 23 years of age, Gustavsson is young, but he has played parts of four professional seasons now in North America. He seems to be on the verge of becoming an NHL regular.
There are some concerns about a small sample size of data and last year’s run being somewhat of a mirage considering his numbers in the AHL have been less impressive. Conversely, Gustavsson has prospect pedigree. He was a second-round draft pick (55th overall, 2016) who starred and was named ‘Best Goaltender’ at the 2016 WJC.
In watching him play, it never felt like Gustavsson was out of position, scrambling to make a save or just lucky to have pucks just find him. There was simply a controlled poise and technique blended with athleticism. It was refreshing.
What will happen with Gustavsson moving forward will be interesting. The Senators have already committed to having Matt Murray be their incumbent starter with Anders Forsberg providing a veteran backup option. If Murray stumbles however, will the Senators turn to Forsberg right away? Or, will they give Gustavsson an opportunity to take the reins? At the same time, Belleville should be an improved club, but how will Gustavsson adjust to going back to the minors to start the season? Will he flourish and bide his time? Or, if Belleville gets off to a bad start, will that change the organization’s perception of Gustavsson as an option for the future?