The Week that Was: talking draft lottery and another Melnyk editorial
Sometimes I miss the simpler times when the only time ping pong balls that mattered were the ones that Kyle Turris was throwing.
Fast forward to Wednesday night when before puck drop in the Winnipeg/Montreal game, the league televised the 2021 NHL Draft Lottery.
A few revisions to the way the lottery was conducted ensured that only five true outcomes could occur for the Senators. There was a 9.5 percent chance that the team could move up into one of the top two selections (4.6 percent for the first overall selection, 4.9 percent for the second overall selection). With a 72.4 percent chance, the Senators’ greatest odds rested in the likelihood that the team would select 10th. And finally, there was an 18 percent chance that their selection could slide to the 11th (17.3 percent) or 12th overall (0.7 percent) selection.
Having had three of their first-round selections slide because of the way the ping pong balls landed in each of the last three seasons, you could not blame fans for wondering whether this trend was going to continue. In 2018, the Senators had the second-best draft odds and slid to fourth. One year later, nobody complained when the first-round pick used to complete the Matt Duchene trade slid from the highest-ranked odds to the fourth overall selection. Thanks to the Erik Karlsson trade, the Senators had the league’s second and third-best draft odds in 2020. While the San Jose pick held firm at three, Ottawa’s own selection fell to the fifth overall slot.
When Bill Daly flipped over the cards this year, the Senators’ logo appeared for the rights to the 10th overall selection. Ottawa’s pick held firm.
Not having the ping pong balls land the Senators’ way would be disappointing in a normal year. Thanks to the pandemic wreaking havoc on the number of games and the opportunity for live viewings, the complications of the 2020-21 season could create some volatility in how different organizations view these players. Even heading into the draft, there was not a significant amount of industry consensus on who will headline this year’s class. With an emphasis on video scouting or last season’s impressions, late bloomers may fall through the cracks and offer opportunities to find good players later on in the draft.
In Ottawa’s case, the 10th overall selection affords them a lot of flexibility. The most likely scenario involves the amateur staff identifying five or six players who may slide or be available at their selection and taking the best of who is left. If no one they like is left, they could trade down and stockpile some more draft pick capital.
Drafting the best player available is often the most popular mantra for general managers, but Pierre Dorion has often offered up a slightly different take. He likes to take the best player who will help the team win.
With the prospect capital that the Senators have accrued through their rebuilding efforts, the team could draft for positional need. Adding another blueliner to the mix would protect the organization against the possibility of attrition. Conversely, for a team that has stockpiled some two-way forwards, there may be a desire to add some dynamic offensive skill at centre or on the wing.
Over the next few weeks, I hope to be speaking with some prospect gurus for a podcast episode or two who can help answer the question of which players the Senators should be looking at.
Stay tuned for that.
Editorial: “the city of Ottawa isn't being fair to Melnyk”
A few months after Graeme Roustan’s pro-Melnyk editorial in The Hockey News, the Ottawa Citizen ran one of its own. In yesterday’s paper, an editorial written by Mohammed Adam detailed how the City of Ottawa has not treated the Senators owner fairly.
The article suggests that mayor Jim Watson and city council “revel in antagonizing and thwarting Melnyk at every turn.”
Several of Melnyk’s ideas have indeed fallen by the wayside. Dreams of building an MLS stadium and a casino on his 70-acre property adjacent to the Canadian Tire Centre were never realized, and if you believe Melnyk’s posturing now, a downtown arena at LeBreton Flats isn’t in the cards either.
In the latter’s case, the owner was gift-wrapped a desirable parcel of federal land to build a downtown arena. He single-handedly threw away that opportunity like he was Alex Galchenyuk handling a puck at the offensive blue line in overtime.
In listening to Melnyk on Bob McCown’s podcast or in listening to a supporter like Adam, it’s not the owner’s fault. Whether it’s John Ruddy, Jim Watson, Cyril Leeder, numerous C-level executives, other employees, coaches, players, the various levels of government, the captain of The Dream yacht, there’s a recurring theme. It is never Eugene Melnyk’s fault. It is always someone else’s.
Despite the mountain of evidence suggesting that every relationship Melnyk participates in turns to ash, I don’t understand the level of mental gymnastics that some people are willing to engage in to give the Senators owner the benefit of the doubt.
I’m not an apologist for the mayor. When it comes to Watson’s record, there are plenty of concerns and issues to take the mayor to task for. But, when it comes to not supporting the Ottawa Senators and the owner enough, what are we talking about here?
The city has worked with the organization on many initiatives. They have supported two NHL Drafts, the 2012 NHL All-Star Game, the NHL 100 Classic, the Bell Sensplexes, a history of hockey exhibit that was featured on the 200-level during the team’s 20th anniversary season, and many community initiatives like the Senators’ ‘Rink of Dreams’ projects. This idea that everyone is conspiring against Melnyk because the mayor did not back a pipedream casino or the formative stages of an MLS bid should not be among them.
The mayor has been livid with the owner for flip-flopping on issues publicly.
“I said earlier today one of the frustrations I think in this partnership was Eugene Melnyk (and) the very fact that during the NHL outdoor (game at TD Place in Ottawa in 2017), or just before that, was musing about not even going downtown,” said Watson, who also is a non-voting member of the NCC board.
“I was pretty livid with him back then. I said ‘Wait a minute. You’re putting a lot of time, effort and money into this process and you come out and just muse off the top of your head, ‘Well, I’m not interested in moving downtown.’
“The whole purpose was because you wanted to move the arena downtown because there’s no walk-up traffic in Kanata (home of the Senators’ current arena, the Canadian Tire Centre). You need that kind of walk-up traffic and transit connections to make the arena successful like all arenas in North America are in the downtown core.”
When it came to LeBreton Flats, Melnyk made a history out of contradicting himself. One minute, he’s stating, “We need to control the building. Forget the financial part, which is your revenue driver, you have to control things.” The next, he’s admitting that he’d consider letting someone else own the proposed downtown arena if it meant that he would not have to pay for it. Who can blame someone for having to deal with the frustrations of cooperating with impulsive and vindictive individual who flips out every time he doesn’t get his way?
This premise that Melnyk is owed something simply because he owns a professional hockey team not only permeates the core of Adam’s article, but it’s a central tenet of every explored proposal to build an arena. Whether it was LeBreton Flats, Gatineau or his own property in Kanata, Melnyk is using his hockey team as leverage with prospective developers in hopes that they build an arena for him.
In Adam’s article, he mentions a University of Ottawa study that found the Senators contribute $200 million annually to the local economy. Adam also mentions the charitable contribution of the now-defunct Sens Foundation that donated more than $70 million to charitable causes.
It makes for a healthy discussion, but what it fails to consider is the opportunity cost involved. The figures Adam puts forth are measurable and real, but he neglects to consider how consumers would spend their money if the Senators did not exist. The Senators do not create a ton of money for the local economy. They divert it. If fans were no longer attending games, that money would not cease to exist, it would simply be channeled into different local entertainment outlets or businesses. In a similar vein, if Eugene Melnyk did not own the Senators, the team wouldn’t stop contributing to the local economy or charitable causes. It is not something that is unique to Melnyk or the Senators. Every professional sports organization is expected to do these things.
Suggesting that the City does Melnyk a solid by helping him secure a new arena is an outmoded idea. The construction of sports stadiums and arenas does have an economic impact and because people have an emotional attachment to the Senators, some, like Mohammed Adam, will support the use of government subsidies to help pay for a new arena. All it takes is one quick Google search to pull up countless studies demonstrating that this impact is often exaggerated. (And as an aside, when Melnyk was pursuing an MLS franchise, his submission to city council in 2009 was a proposed $110 million stadium that was funded mostly through government subsidy.)
Taxpayer money that’s used to pay for an arena carries an opportunity cost as well. Rather than pay for a new rink, that money can be spent on infrastructure or other projects that will benefit the public and carry many long-term effects.
More than anything, the timing and circumstances surrounding this article are interesting. Shortly after the Graeme Roustan editorial, advertisements for season tickets started appearing in The Hockey News. Adam’s article is in the same vein as Roustan’s. It’s odd. After an unflattering Rick Gibbons article was published last year in the Ottawa Sun, Melnyk threatened litigation against Gibbons and Postmedia. An apology was issued, but the matter has been quiet since. Is the letter some olive branch gesture by Postmedia to help resolve the matter?
The timing is suspect and to see the self-promotion of it is interesting. The Senators rarely promote anything on social media. Melnyk and the Senators’ official Twitter account retweeted the Citizen’s link to the article. Keep in mind, these are the same channels that could not bring themselves to share or offer support to prominent social events. To this point, the organization still has not paid any respects to the 215 indigenous children who were found in a mass grave in Kamloops.
Throw in the fact that Eugene Melnyk sent ice cream trucks to several Ottawa-area hospitals to treat frontline workers and it’s obvious that there’s this emphasis being placed on repairing the owner’s image.
I’m just curious as to why. Why now?
Other News and Notes:
Senators rookies Josh Norris and Tim Stützle did merit enough votes to be recognized as finalists for the Calder Trophy.
Connor Brown, Nick Paul and Jacob Bernard-Docker will compete for World Championship gold tomorrow when Team Canada takes on Finland.
In some news that will inevitably make you feel old, Radek Bonk’s son Oliver was drafted in the second round (26th overall) of the OHL Priority Draft by the London Knights.
The Athletic’s Thomas Drance spoke with four anonymous scouts to discuss who the Canucks should consider with the ninth overall selection. Although it was written from the Vancouver perspective, it is a worthwhile read for Senators fans who want some opinions on the players who may be available at 10.