The Senators' Losing Streak Hits 5 Games
The ‘Summer of Pierre’ might be followed by the ‘Fall of D.J.’.
Saturday night’s 2-1 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers marked the fifth straight game that the Senators have dropped. In these five losses, the Senators have either lost by just one goal or saw their opposition add an empty net goal to put the game away.
From a scoring perspective, the games have been close. It has not helped that the Senators have allowed the opposition to score in the last five minutes of the third period to seal their defeat and miss out on some valuable points had the games been sent to overtime. The point remains, in a results-based industry, this team is losing valuable ground early in the season and frustration is setting in.
Poor starts have been an earmark of the D.J. Smith era, but it is hard to lay blame solely on the head coach of a team that was in the midst of a rebuild. This year was supposed to be different, however. Unlike previous years where the true talent level of the roster was not particularly strong, the Senators made significant investments in their roster and graduated two well-regarded prospects to the parent roster. Coupled with the growth and development of this team’s young core, the expectations were higher. This was a team that was supposed to push for a playoff spot and play meaningful hockey games late in the season.
Through the team’s first 11 games, the team’s special teams have let it down. The Senators’ penalty killing (79.6%, t-18th) and power play (13.2%, 27th) both rank towards the bottom third of the league.
Another striking contrast is the performance of the Senators’ splits at home and on the road.
In seven games at the Canadian Tire Centre, the Senators have compiled a 4-3-0 record, but are winless (0-4-0) on the road. Beyond the records, NaturalStatTrick.com’s team data portrays a Jekyll and Hyde-type performance when looking at the team’s shot and goal metrics at five-on-five.
The top table contains the Senators’ home data and the bottom their away. Even though the sample sizes are small, there is a striking disparity in the way that the team has performed in these splits.
With such small sample sizes, developing explanations for the differences is not easy. Maybe D.J. Smith is simply getting outcoached on the road by more experienced hands who have the last change or maybe this is simply a matter of variability and statistical noise.
The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
The Senators probably aren’t as good as their home numbers indicate, but they are not as bad as their road numbers portray them to be either.
Losing Josh Norris and Artyom Zub has been a blow to the team’s depth, but the coaching staff has not endeared itself to fans through some porous defensive stretches, questionable player usage (especially late in games), and refusing to make Nikita Zaitsev a healthy scratch — even after management recalled Jacob Bernard-Docker this weekend. (Note: Bernard-Docker was returned to Belleville today.)
Moments like this on Saturday left fans shaking their collective heads.
The interesting part about the Senators is that their good moments have statistically overshadowed the bad.
HockeyViz.com’s data portrays the Senators as being an excellent offensive team that is slightly below average at five-on-five.
The Senators’ offence looks good in the sense that it is creating a ton of chances in the crease and slot. The unfortunate part of that is that Ottawa is simply not finishing in that area.
As good as the offence has been at its best, the lows have dominated the conversation. The Senators are one of the most penalized teams in the league. Their average of 5.55 penalties taken and 13:54 PIM per game both lead the league. Undisciplined play is often a sign of a team struggling to regain control of a puck, but this is simply another year where the Senators look content to trade chances with the opposition.
Questions about whether Ottawa’s playing style could ever lend itself to success in the postseason is certainly an interesting topic. High-event hockey has characterized the way the Senators play dating all the way back to the Bryan Murray general manager era. This season the Senators are averaging 33.93 shots for (7th highest in the league) and 33.81 shots against (8th worst mark in the league) per 60 of five-on-five hockey per NaturalStatTrick.
This team has always been willing to play a run-and-gun trading chances style and this philosophy has never really lent itself to sustained success.
A large part of that problem is a function of the roster’s construction. The quality of the blue line simply has not been good enough. Travis Hamonic and Nikita Zaitsev have proven themselves incapable of fulfilling the traditional defensive roles entrusted to them. Erik Brannstrom has had a tremendous start in terms of showcasing his breakout and puck-moving ability, but his shortcomings on the defensive side of the puck have not gone away. Thomas Chabot’s logged a ton of minutes as he normally does, but he simply has not played at the level that many expect of him. I think Artyom Zub and Nick Holden have been fine in their roles and Jake Sanderson has demonstrated some two-way ability that the team has desperately lacked. Sanderson’s shown enough in his rookie campaign that it is easy to look two or three years down the road and wonder how high his development ceiling can be.
As a group, their collective play leaves something to be desired and it deservingly garners a lot of attention. The problem is that in watching this team regularly, it never really feels like the forwards are doing a good enough job in terms of puck support.
In the defensive zone, Ottawa prefers to play man-to-man with their coverage. Too often there seem to be lapses in that coverage or forwards cheating when pucks get turned over to support the play. Opponents with high skill tend to create mismatches with quick puck movement and positional rotations.
The Senators are at a stage in their franchise’s development where it’s no longer acceptable to just blame the team’s shortcomings on the talent level of this roster. Injuries and the quality of the blue line help undermine the performance of this group, but at a certain point, it is easy to wonder whether someone may be able to get more out of this group.
New ownership is just around the corner and with it, it is fair to assume that both general manager Pierre Dorion and head coach D.J. Smith are lame ducks. New owners will likely want their own people put in place, but if Dorion believes that the best opportunity to salvage his job (or make his prospective hiring more attractive to other organizations) dismissing D.J. Smith to provide a spark to his club could be the easiest move to make — especially with Troy Mann waiting in the wings in Belleville.
Put Out the ‘For Sale’ Sign
Seven months after the passing of owner Eugene Melnyk, the Ottawa Senators have officially been put up for sale.
According to their press release, the organization has formally retained Galatioto Sports Partners as its financial advisor to begin the process of initiating the sale of the hockey team.
Sheldon Plener, the chairman and governor of the Ottawa Senators, released the following statement:
"Galatioto Sports Partners has been retained as financial advisor and a process has been initiated for the sale of the Ottawa Senators Hockey Club.
This was a necessary and prudent step to connect with those deeply interested parties who can show us what their vision is for the future of the team.
A condition of any sale will be that the team remains in Ottawa.
The organization will have no further comment on this process at this time."
Rumours of this team’s prospective sale have been around for quite some time, but this is a pivotal moment in this franchise’s existence.
There are reportedly a ton of interested parties in purchasing this team and actor Ryan Reynolds is garnering most of the attention because of his celebrity, local roots, and successful work co-owning the Wrexham Association Football Club with ‘It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia’s’ Rob McElhenney.
Minto’s Roger Greenberg and Farmboy’s Jeff York are two local names who have expressed interest. Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch has heard the names of Michael and Jeffrey Kimel, Michael Andlauer, Rocko Tullio, and Andre Desmarais be mentioned as possibilities.
During Saturday night’s game, Elliotte Friedman indicated during the ‘32 Thoughts’ second period segment that Ottawa’s ownership
“I think it’s too early to say who the ownership group will be but, the expectation is things there will heat up around American Thanksgiving or just after. Then they’ll start to get that process seriously moving.”
Regardless of who ultimately winds up owning the Senators, the assumption is that it will be a group rather than just one individual. If that is the case, it’s a win-win scenario for the Senators.
Although there is something to be said about having one individual be responsible for all of the high-level decision-making, an ownership group offers a ton of benefits despite its complexities. Where we have seen the Senators ride the highs and lows of Eugene Melnyk’s financial health, a group partnership is more flexible in a changing financial environment and does not rely on the dependency of one individual’s worth.
Whoever comes in is afforded the luxury of simply not being Eugene Melnyk. The previous owner’s legacy has been well documented, so for any incoming group, it is not like it should be very difficult to clear the bar that was set by the previous owner.
The first step will be an endorsement from Daniel Alfredsson that ensures he joins the hockey ops department in some capacity, but with an influx of capital, and the likelihood that a new downtown arena at LeBreton Flats will be realized, there are a lot of intriguing developments that can make this sale a really exciting time for fans.
If the organization can invigorate its fans and corporate community, engage the Francophone community on the Quebec side of the Ottawa River and continue to insulate this young roster with more talent, the organization can return to prominence.
It’s been a long time coming. Soak it all up, Ottawa. You fans deserve it.