The Senators' Best Stretch of the Season
During the Senators’ November 23rd game in Vegas, the team played differently, although the masses may not have necessarily noticed it.
A western start coupled with another loss is usually a recipe for fans turning the televisions off early, but stylistically to me, under the surface of that loss was a Senators team playing one of its best two-way games of the season.
The numbers backed it up.
The Senators traded power-play goals with the Golden Knights and allowed another even-strength goal at four-on-four, but for most of the night, the Senators took it to Vegas at five-on-five.
There the Senators generated 64.96 percent of the shots (CF%), 60.34 percent of the shots (SF%), 73.58 percent of the scoring chances (SCF%) and 72.65 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Had Cam Talbot stopped more than 87.50 percent of the shots he faced or if the Senators simply did not fire blanks, better luck would have meant a better fate.
Wishing for better luck has been a common refrain through the first quarter of the season, but since November 23rd, the Senators are unquestionably playing their best hockey.
Including their Vegas game, the Senators have put together a 4-2-0 record over their last six games. The underlying numbers at five-on-five are sizzling.
During this span of time:
55.42 CF%, 3rd in NHL
55.23 SF%, 3rd in NHL
55.36 SCF%, 6th in NHL
58.43 xGF%, 2nd in NHL
The Senators have only scored 40.0 percent of all five-on-five goals, so their luck has not changed much from a shooting perspective. In fact, they have only scored on 3.55 percent of their shots during this stretch. Fortunately, the goaltending has stepped up. When your goaltenders stop 93.45 percent of the shots, and the power play starts clicking at a 37.5 percent success rate, it will help the team overcome its shooting woes.
But, what is most encouraging is that the team is playing much better defensively. The forwards in particular look more dedicated to playing a 200’ game and doing what they can to disrupt the opposition’s play. Alex DeBrincat’s backcheck during the team’s November 27th is not only a microcosm of the team’s improved commitment, but his efforts also earned him the celebratory post-game tanning goggles following the win.
Looking at the rate at which the Senators give up shots, goals, scoring chances, and expected goals, the team ranks in the top half of the league during this span.
55.72 shots allowed per 60 (CA/60), 17th-best
29.09 shots on goal allowed per 60 (SA/60), 12th-best
1.91 goals allowed per 60 (GA/60, 10th-best
2.32 expected goals allowed per 60 (xGA/60), 9th-best
Here is how the Senators fared in their first 18 games:
58.80 shots allowed per 60 (CA/60), 20th-best
33.58 shots on goal allowed per 60 (SA/60), 28th-best
2.76 goals allowed per 60 (GA/60, 23rd-best
2.85 expected goals allowed per 60 (xGA/60), 24th-best
Provided the Senators continue to play a high-event offensive pace while doing a much better job of limiting the opposition’s shot and goal production, it will lead to more success. And that is before even considering the possibility that the Senators’ shooting percentage can normalize and regress toward the league’s average. If that ever occurs, this team is going to be a hell of a dangerous club for teams to face.
Zub Out
The Senators announced this morning that Artyom Zub will be out for the next three to four weeks with a jaw injury.
Zub was struck in the face by a puck during the team’s win Friday night against the Rangers.
The loss of the team’s best right defenceman is going to be a huge blow to overcome. It does not really matter how impactful Nikita Zaitsev’s return from Belleville was and whether it truthfully allowed the player to reset his psyche. Giving significant minutes on the right side to Travis Hamonic, Nick Holden and Zaitsev just is not very palatable. It is an underwhelming group that could easily undermine the strides that this team has taken lately defensively.
In saying that, it puts even more pressure on the forwards to continue coming back hard and providing better puck support.