With the 2022 NHL Draft taking place later this week and the free agent period kicking off in 10 days, it was only a matter of time before the rumours started picking up steam.
The NHL’s first buyout window officially opened on July 1st and will run through July 12th.
The Senators have some obvious candidates for a buyout, but it is no surprise that any formal decision has been made yet. As a 25-year-old, this summer represents the last opportunity for the Senators to take advantage of an age-related buyout clause in the CBA and buy Colin White out. With three years left on his contract that carries an escalating salary that will be $6.25 million during the 2024-25 season, it makes sense to move on from his deal. Although White is a good defensive forward who offers the Senators positional flexibility, with three young centres already in the fold, paying White this kind of money to be a third-line winger does not make a ton of sense. The money owed to White could be reallocated to address other areas of need.
Michael Del Zotto is another veteran who could be bought out. The defenceman was waived just 10 games into his Senators career after signing a two-year contract with the team last offseason. With one year left on his contract that carries a base salary of $2.25 million, the buyout would cost the Senators $1.5 million spread out of over the next two years. It would only save the Senators $750,000, which is not a relatively large sum of money that could be reallocated. It would probably be easier just to let Del Zotto play out the year in Ottawa or Belleville, but the relationship between him and the organization may be beyond salvaging.
Given the money and term owed, Matt Murray is a worthy buyout candidate. But after a concussion ended his 2021-22 season, he will need to be medically cleared to return before he can even be considered as a buyout candidate. Thanks to Anton Forsberg’s play last season, coupled with Murray’s inconsistent play and unfortunate inability to stay healthy enough to remain on the ice.
Murray has two years left on the four-year contract that he signed. His backloaded deal calls for him to be paid $7.0 million in 2022-23 and $8.0 million in 2023-24. A prospective Murray buyout would save the Senators $4.5 million and $5.0 million in the next two years but would cost the team $2.5 million in years three and four.
Given the Senators’ financial limitations, attaching prospects or futures in a trade package involving Murray might make more sense for the Senators at this time — especially if it helps the team avoid a buyout and saves the team more money two to four years from now when the team should be better and expected to compete for a playoff spot.
In saying that however, any Murray trade or any of these aforementioned buyout candidates simply highlights this front office’s shortcomings. With each of these players, the Senators ignored easily identifiable and avoidable risks. Revisionist history was never needed to recognize that Colin White was coming off a season in which he played almost exclusively with Brady Tkachuk and Mark Stone. After the latter was dealt to Vegas, it was reasonable to believe that his production would suffer — especially projecting forward and recognizing that as a rebuilding team, his role would diminish as more offensively gifted players graduated and were introduced to the parent roster. In Michael Del Zotto’s case, the Senators already had Thomas Chabot, Victor Mete and Erik Brannstrom playing regularly at the end of the 2020-21 season. And, the day before Del Zotto inked his two-year contract, the Senators acquired Nick Holden from Vegas in Evgenii Dadonov’s contract dump. With these four defencemen and the expectation that Jake Sanderson would join the team in the latter stages of the season, there was never any pressing need to bring Del Zotto in on a multi-year deal. In Murray’s case, with his injury history and the Penguins’ cap situation, they had to move the goaltender. It would be one thing if the Senators bought low on Murray after an underwhelming final year in Pittsburgh, but they paid a relatively high opportunity cost for a player coming off a bad season. And, to compound that error, they rewarded him with an expensive multi-year contract without him proving that he could return to the levels he exhibited during his first two years in the league.
In one of Bruce Garrioch’s recent articles, he theorized that the Senators could wind up moving Matt Murray’s contract by packaging him with the team’s seventh overall selection in the draft. I do not know how realistic that possibility is, but the suggestion that the Senators could take one of their most desirable trade assets and marginalize the return by throwing Murray into the mix simply highlights how poor this team’s roster management has been.
Hopefully, that isn’t the case, but Elliotte Friedman’s latest ‘32 Thoughts’ article indicates that the Senators are looking for a better hockey deal.
“It’s not a secret this pick is available. The Senators are believed to be targeting upgrades on right wing and right defence. When news got out that Connor Brown wanted to test free agency next summer, they had not offered him anywhere. But they did receive calls after that occurred, so we’ll see if anything tempts them. GM Pierre Dorion told Jeff Marek at the combine they’d keep three goalies if necessary, but the amount of teams needing netminders ignited some thought the Senators can move Matt Murray — if they’re willing to be creative. Looming over all of this is Claude Giroux. Does this marriage actually happen?”
With NHL free agency opening in less than 10 days, I would hope that the Senators have a pretty good gauge on Giroux’s interest in joining the team. If the reported interest from the player is real and the Senators have a chance to add him to the mix at the simple cost of money, that avenue may be preferable. Obviously, I write that without knowing whether a Giroux signing would preclude the team from adding another top-six forward, but a scenario that sees the team sign Giroux (or another top-six free agent forward) and keep its seventh overall selection may be the one that benefits the team the most.
Speaking of forwards, Chris Johnston was on TSN’s ‘Insider Trading’ segment recently and he discussed the availability of Edmonton’s Jesse Puljujarvi.
“There are discussions as well in Edmonton on Jesse Puljujarvi's future and it sounds right now as though the trade winds are blowing increasingly stronger. There are a couple of teams that have engaged with the Oilers in trade talks on Puljujarvi. One of them is believed to be the Ottawa Senators. This is a player that needs a new contract. He's a restricted free agent. If Edmonton is not going to give him that contract, don't be surprised if he's moved here at some point.”
Part of the problem with Puljujarvi is that because of where he was selected in his draft year (4th overall, 2016), the expectations placed on him in Edmonton are high.
In playing parts of five NHL seasons, Puljujarvi’s highest recorded goal total is 15 and this past season, he recorded his highest point total with 36. For a player whose most common linemate over the course of the 2021-22 season was Connor McDavid, it seems like relatively modest production.
A deeper dive into Puljujarvi’s numbers suggest that he’s an excellent two-way winger who defends well and helps tilt the ice in his team’s favour.
HockeyViz.com’s isolated impact charts show just how Puljujarvi’s performance helps his team.
Perhaps it is naive to believe that Puljujarvi will ever reach the offensive ability that he demonstrated as an amateur, but I believe there’s enough here to suggest that he could be an excellent acquisition who can anchor the Senators’ third line. With news that Connor Brown is interested in testing unrestricted free agency at the end of the 2022-23 season, Puljujarvi could be a viable replacement. Not only would his age mesh well with Ottawa’s young core, he has not produced enough offensively to really command a large salary. That kind of cost and controllable term has to be attractive to the Senators.
One popular sentiment on social media is that Puljujarvi could represent another quality buy-low player in the mold of Colorado’s Valeri Nichushkin. That comparable is a best-case scenario, but Puljujarvi fulfills some of those early offensive scouting projections, it would simply be the feather in the cap.
Perhaps there is some scenario that sees the Senators move Brown to the Oilers for a package featuring Puljujarvi.
Other News and Notes:
General manager Pierre Dorion acknowledged in his end of season availability that Victor Mete would not be tendered a qualifying offer, but according to the aforementioned Garrioch article, Adam Gaudette will likely not be tendered a qualifying offer either.
In that same Elliotte Friedman post that I referenced earlier, he also noted that the Senators and Canadiens had discussed a Colin White trade at this year’s deadline. The Canadiens’ new general manager, Kent Hughes, was White’s agent.
Garrioch also believes that the Senators could move Nikita Zaitsev now that his $2.0 million signing bonus was paid on July 1st. Garrioch’s belief is that the Senators could attach a draft pick to him to expedite a deal. Zaitsev has two years left on his contract. He has a base salary of $2.5 million in each of the next two seasons with another $2.0 million signing bonus owed to him in July of 2023.
Great read. Totally agree that the Sens are constantly having to dig themselves out of a hole that they dug for themselves. Murray and Zaitsev needing to get shipped out, the entirety of the MDZ situation, the failure to re-sign DeMelo... I'm not sure if it was just a deficiency in the player evaluation department or just gross mismanagement of the roster, but I hate that we keep putting ourselves in this position.
Nice article. Thanks.