The Ottawa Senators are For Sale & The State of the Blue Line
After waiting a decade to hear the words, the Ottawa Senators are reportedly for sale.
According to an article written by Kurt Badenhausen for Sportico that looked at NHL franchise values, “the Ottawa Senators are widely expected to be the next team to sell.”
Rumours of a prospective sale have dogged the franchise for years as the late Eugene Melnyk’s financial situation deteriorated. Today’s news does not really come as a surprise for a number of reasons. Erin Crowe’s return to the organization and appointment as an executive vice president and CFO in 2021 has been portrayed as a precursor to a sale. The owner’s confidence in Crowe’s ability was renowned and if anyone could clean up the books and get this team’s financials in order for a prospective sale, it was her. On a different note, I had heard some rumblings that the team could be sold this December.
Whether that comes to fruition or not remains to be seen, but a news source publicly acknowledging that the team is for sale is an important development.
In the article, Badenhousen indicated that the Senators have already interviewed “sell-side bankers”. These bankers would serve as intermediaries between the organization and a prospective buyer or ownership group.
Sportico valued the Senators at $655 million with a one-year value increase of 21 percent. Per their valuation model, they are the least valuable Canadian franchise in the NHL. As the article notes, the Senators negotiated a memorandum of understand (MOU) with the NCC to work towards building a new arena and becoming an anchor tenant at LeBreton Flats. A lot of work has to be done to see this dream be realized, but a lot of this franchise’s future value will be tied to this new arena.
In terms of rumoured buyers, OSEG’s Roger Greenberg expressed his prospective interest in a CTV News interview last year. Bruce Garrioch also mentioned in an article this morning Andre Desmarais, who was part of the DevCore group that was originally competing to develop an arena of its own at LeBreton, was part of an interested party. That group may include Farmboy executive Jeff York, who Garrioch noted, was rumoured to have “met with NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly and has a group in place.”
After some welcomed months of quiet and normalcy, it will be interesting to see how these rumoured sales talks have an impact, if any, on the organization.
In particular, if new ownership comes in or is expected to arrive soon, I wonder what kind of impact it could have on employees like Pierre Dorion. My assumption would be that any incoming group would bring in its own people (and as an aside, I wonder if this is why Daniel Alfredsson has not officially joined the current regime in an official capacity yet), but if Dorion’s perception is that he could be in a lame duck situation, how will that affect his decision making going forward?
Dorion could aggressively pursue deals knowing that there is no guarantee that he could get another general manager’s job in the league. This could be his last kick at the can to finish what he started building.
Alternatively, if he is looking to preserve his job or present his case to any prospective new employer, maybe it is better to follow the path that he is currently on. Portraying himself as a general manager who was unenviably handcuffed by one of the worst owners in professional sports and as someone who did not get the opportunity to finish what he started.
The next few months should be fascinating to watch play out — for the games being played on and off the ice.
The State of the Blue Line
Everyone loved the Senators’ offseason.
I loved the Senators’ offseason.
The price to acquire two-time 40-goal scorer Alex DeBrincat felt light before even considering the possibility that the Senators are working towards an extension with him. Claude Giroux inked a three-year extension to finish his career playing in his hometown. Tim Stützle and Josh Norris inked long-term extensions to help keep this team’s young core together for the foreseeable future. Jake Sanderson and Shane Pinto were two prominent rookie prospects who were expected to step into the lineup and play prominent roles for the club. The organization even tried to bolster its goaltending situation by acquiring a veteran in Cam Talbot to push Anton Forsberg for the starter’s role — although with the Talbot sustaining a rib injury during the preseason, he has not had the opportunity to play in the regular season yet. To their credit, the Senators did a lot of positive things on and off the ice.
Was the offseason perfect?
No.
The Senators took steps to improve their roster, but the one glaring omission was the inability to land a quality right-shot defenceman.
Now that Artyom Zub is on the shelf for the next two weeks and prospects like Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson have failed to take advantage of their situation and push for regular NHL duty, this Senators weakness has been exacerbated early in this 2022-23 season.
What is clear is that the Senators cannot continue to play Nikita Zaitsev and Travis Hamonic in back-to-back shifts. And given the overwhelming qualitative and quantitative evidence, Zaitsev probably should not even be playing at all.
One glance at HockeyViz.com’s visuals is all anyone needs to quickly understand just how much of a drag on Ottawa’s play Zaitsev is.
The volume of shots that the Senators allow spikes markedly when Zaitsev is on the ice and Ottawa’s expected goals allowed per 60 minutes of five-on-five grows (xGA/60) grows from 2.59 to 4.23. In other words, the Senators average almost two more expected goals allowed per 60 minutes of ice time when Zaitsev is on the ice. I hate piling on a player because it is not his fault that management and this coaching staff have continued to put faith in his abilities, but at some point, the organization has to simply keep him out of the lineup. Whether that means jettisoning to Belleville, putting him on Robidas Island or whatever, Zaitsev’s a sunk cost who is beyond worth salvaging.
For a team with playoff aspirations, they cannot continue to put him out there given the on-ice results and if the team is going to struggle with him in the lineup, they would be better off served by rotating prospects like the aforementioned Bernard-Docker or Thomson into the mix.
The frustration for fans of this team is that the blue line was such an obvious weakness that never got addressed during the offseason. As much as the presence of Jake Sanderson was a welcomed addition, the right side looked more vulnerable than Matt Murray’s glove hand.
As I replied to Marc on Twitter, the Senators absolutely defenders who are hard to play against. It is easy to get hung up on the word “size”, but players do not have to have the size to play hard or make life difficult for the opposition. Whether it is retrieving pucks, winning battles along the wall, boxing out well, and making the slot an uninviting place to be, these are desirable traits to have. Unfortunately for the Senators, the players they are relying on to do this are just completely ineffective. They may compete well in the defensive end, but they simply make too many mental and physical mistakes to be reliable. Players like Hamonic and Zaitsev also undermine their best qualities because they kill plays with their poor puck management. Their inability to move the rock effectively ensures that more time is spent in the defensive zone so that when the Senators eventually do break out with the puck, they rely on dump-ins to get a needed line change.
None of that is to suggest that general manager Pierre Dorion did not try to make a deal. His competitors assuredly understood that he was negotiating from a position of weakness and tried to exploit it. The Senators stood pat and they are living with the consequences of having a blue line whose quality is undermining the talent of the forward core that has been assembled.
If it was difficult to acquire a defender in the offseason, it may not be easier to find one now. Residing in the bottom of the Atlantic Division heading into tonight’s game in Tampa, the Senators can ill afford to fall too far behind the pack. The Senators’ young collective desperately needs to play in meaningful games for their own development. Competitive hockey should also make contract negotiations easier with impending free agents like Artyom Zub and Alex DeBrincat.
Raised expectations put pressure on Pierre Dorion to identify talent that they believe will be able to help them. I wrote about prospective targets earlier this year, but the Senators should be doing everything they search for upgrades on Hamonic and Zaitsev. If Pittsburgh is going to scratch Chad Ruhwedel, kick tires. If the Blue Jackets’ season looks like it’s already swirling the bowl, find out what it might take to pry Andrew Peeke out of there. If teams faced with injuries like the Washington Capitals are looking for help to shore a need, see if it is possible to land Trevor Van Riemsdyk or Nick Jensen in a deal.
If the Senators can be aggressive and creative, they may be an opportunity to add a subtle piece or two that would be less cost prohibitive than the rumored Jake Chychrun return.
It is early, but with some important young pieces on entry-level deals and the bulk of the team entering their prime years, it’s important for the Senators to get as much out of this development stage as it can.
Other News and Notes:
Shane Pinto was named the NHL’s ‘Rookie of the Month’ for October. The centre had a productive month showcasing his goal-scoring ability with six goals in eight games. Scoring on 42.9 percent of his shots on goal is not sustainable, but by getting a chance to play between Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, Pinto should get significantly more opportunities to generate scoring chances and assists.
Former Senators forward Connor Brown underwent surgery on his ACL. His estimated time of recovery may not allow him to play again this season, which could be a huge blow for the impending unrestricted free agent. After spending some time alongside Alex Ovechkin, he had a unique opportunity to put up some points and cash in on the open market.
The Belleville Senators announced that they have signed former Senator Cory Conacher to a professional tryout. I joked on Twitter that this was a solid add simply because it did not cost the Senators a young goaltending prospect like Ben Bishop. Conacher has been a productive AHLer throughout his professional career, so he should provide some offensive depth to a young club. Conacher joins the organization after spending the past two seasons overseas in Switzerland.