Ranked 13th on the DailyFaceoff.com’s ‘Trade Targets’ board, Nick Paul’s situation with the Senators was given an update by Frank Seravalli during Friday’s edition of ‘Ice Breakers’ on the Daily Faceoff Show.
After Nick Paul’s camp reportedly turned down a three-year contract extension carrying an average annual value of $2.0 million in early January, Seravalli indicated that “there has been little contact between the Senators and Paul’s camp in recent weeks and he is leaning toward testing the market in free agency.”
Inevitably, this is going to create the reactionary, “Oh, great. The Senators are struggling another impending unrestricted free agent,” commentary.
But, in understanding that agents and teams routinely use the media to leverage their own self-interests all the time, it is hard to get too worked up over Seravalli’s insights… yet.
With the NHL’s March 21st trade deadline a little over two weeks away, there is a tons of time left for the two parties to come together and strike a deal.
Threatening to explore unrestricted free agency is essentially the only leverage that the Paul camp has. Don’t get me wrong, having already written about Paul’s defensive value at even-strength and on the penalty kill, I would like to see him return.
In saying that however, Paul is certainly replaceable and his prospective return should not come at a prohibitive cost.
Looking at the roster projecting forward, it’s easy to look at a the centre situation and pencil in Josh Norris, Tim Stützle and Shane Pinto as the team’s centres for the foreseeable future. Alex Formenton has showcased flashes displaying an improved awareness and ability to create offensively in other ways beyond just generating chances off the rush. Yet, I believe most would agree that this team would be well-positioned if players like Formenton and Connor Brown were playing third-line roles behind more skilled alternatives.
So, if you hope that those players slot into those roles over the next two or three seasons, while prospect Ridly Greig should be pushing for a depth role over that span of time, the organization would theoretically be able to absorb the loss of Paul.
The problem with the theory however is that it is predicated on the idea that the Senators can find upgrades to their top-six. It is easy to say, but harder to actually manifest.
An ascension to the top-six for Formenton or injuries at the centre or left wing positions would create the need for depth and Paul’s positional flexibility offers a lot of value.
Without any publicly disclosed knowledge of the figure Paul’s camp is seeking, we just don’t know what kind of value he places on himself. And because of it, it is easy to wonder how big of a gap lies between the two parties.
The left winger is currently making $1.5 million in the last year of a two-year contract carrying an average annual value of $1.35 million.
Paul’s never been an incredibly productive player. His regular season highs in goals (9) and points (20) are relatively modest. Granted, that is no fault of his own considering how the abbreviated seasons have impacted the number of games he has played. It is hard to believe that this season, Paul’s seventh NHL season, represents the first time in his career that he should approach a full 82-game slate.
NaturalStatTrick.com’s data puts Paul’s total points per 60 at all strengths as the team’s 16th-highest mark. His goals per 60 slots him higher, but he will never be mistaken for a significant producer.
Most of his value lies in those defensive metrics and for a team that lacks a ton of defensive aptitude, his skillset makes him unique to many of his teammates. Under the right circumstances, I could see his offence playing up with a stronger centre and less reliance on the dump-and-chase game, but at 27 years old, he’s at a stage of his career where we have a pretty good idea of what Nick Paul is and isn’t.
The danger for the Senators is that they certainly do not want to sign him to an expensive contract relative to his role. And projecting out, there is a good chance that he could be passed on the depth chart within a year or two by a less expensive player in Ridly Greig.
The Senators could simply sign Paul to a contract and slide the problem by a year or two until someone is ready to supplant him, but the balance therein rests on negotiating an extensive that is palatable for a team to take on over the course of his next deal. Another risk in this situation is that Paul’s trade value diminishes over time as he becomes more expensive. Paul may never have more trade value to the Senators than he has right now.
Of course, all of this is moot if Paul genuinely wants to test unrestricted free agency. In this event, the Senators will simply auction him off to the highest bidder.
The organization can spin it as an unfortunate, but necessary part of the rebuild. Fans would embrace a good return, but any deal will raise questions about this team’s budget and ability to retain its own impending unrestricted free agents.
I recently wrote about the importance of insulating this team’s young core, especially as most of its players are in or will shortly be in their productive prime years (22 to 27 years of age). The 2022-23 season has to be the beginning of the Senators’ window to reach the postseason and make inroads in its competitiveness. They have to improve the quality and the depth of this roster.
If the Senators move Nick Paul and allocate the money he would be slated to earn with the kind of ineffective veteran garbage that has been a staple of the Pierre Dorion era, it’s going to be a problem. This team cannot continue to move players out and decrease the true talent level of this team.
And if the team moves on from Paul, it’s just going to put a focused lens on management to prove that it has learned from its mistakes and is capable of identifying and acquiring better talent while making more efficient use of its limited resources.
Del Zotto on the Move?
According to Bruce Garrioch and Darren Dreger, Michael Del Zotto’s generating some interest in his services because of his strong play in Belleville.
Del Zotto has played at over a point-per-game pace since his demotion to Belleville in December. With nine goals and 23 points in 21 games, Del Zotto has made the most of his time in the American Hockey League.
With another year on his deal that will pay him $2.25 million in 2022-23, moving Del Zotto will necessitate either the Senators eating part of his salary or will see them take on another team’s bad contract. Buyouts to Dion Phaneuf and Bobby Ryan are already on the books and a decision will need to be made on Colin White’s future, as well. Assuming they buy White out at one-third the cost of his contract, the Senators would be spending more than $3.0 million for players not to play on their team. Adding Del Zotto’s name to that pool would be a necessary, but unpalatable move.
The Senators have exhibited a pattern of acquiring and overpaying for redundant veteran parts. To their credit, they quickly try to get out from under many of these bad contracts. But, it raises the questions about the process and the decision-making factors that influence these acquisitions.
What measures are being implemented to mitigate these mistakes and help ensure that they happen less often?
If the answer is nothing, the organization is going to have a hard time convincing its smart fanbase that things have changed. The good will and optimism fuelled by high draft picks will only take the team so far. And the further removed we are from the selection of those picks, the pressure and expectations facing the organization are only going to be cranked up.
Both Connor Brown and Paul seem to have lost their hands, and their offensive instincts as well, C.B. can poke check but not finish. His passes aren't clicking. Both are good team guys, but are replaceable types. This team has a long record of keeping players with fan appeal (Redden) and letting Hall of Famers go too easily (Chara). I agree with drafting guys like Greig who hate to lose and are pests. Brady is the epitome if he can stay on the ice. I say trade the softer, average skilled players ASAP. Plain vanilla isn't valuable now.