In the closing moments of Monday night’s 5-3 loss to the Coyotes, the visual of a clearly frustrated Brady Tkachuk hanging his head on the bench personified the feelings of everyone who’s been watching this team of late.
For all the exciting young talent that headlines the top of this roster, injuries and ineffective play have shone a light on depth issues and the lack of talent around them. It is a sobering feeling looking at the roster, projecting out and realizing that the youth on this roster would be best served from some strong additions — while simultaneously recognizing that management may have a difficult time supplementing and upgrading the roster without seriously depleting a system that has already graduated the majority of its high-end talent.
It puts the Senators are in a weird predicament. They need to be more competitive right away and because of it, management needs to ensure that it does not downgrade its personnel.
Case in point, take the Nick Paul contract negotiations.
TSN’s Darren Dreger updated the Paul situation on a recent ‘Insider Trading’.
“Sources tell us that the Ottawa Senators made another offer to extend Nick Paul. We talked about the money a little bit. It’s believed that they are still working around a four-year term and the fact is, the term may ultimately be the undoing for the Ottawa Senators and their quest to extend an important piece. And, Nick Paul is an important piece of the Ottawa Senators. So, it is believed that unless something changes between Ottawa and the Nick Paul camp, that he will go to unrestricted free agency. So then obviously, that begs the question as to what do Pierre Dorion and the Ottawa Senators do with Nick Paul as a trade asset between now and Monday. The belief is that if they cannot close that gap in negotiations, Paul will very likely be traded before or at the deadline on Monday.”
In Elliotte Friedman’s latest ‘32 Thoughts’ column, he believed the issue was the salary being negotiated.
12. Not much movement between Ottawa and Nick Paul. Big question here is how close everyone is willing to get to $3 million per year.
Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch essentially confirmed that this afternoon.
As a precautionary move designed to guard the asset against the possibility of injury, Paul will be held out tonight’s game against Philadelphia.
If Paul’s camp is asking for $3 million or north of that figure, no one should blame the Senators for balking. They can poke fun at it for going against its management’s promise not to negotiate through the media, however.
For as good defensively as Nick Paul is, the Senators have a very good player in Alex Formenton who safely projects as a third-line left-winger. In a perfect world, the Senators would probably be better off adding two top-six wingers which would allow Formenton and Connor Brown to anchor the third line with Shane Pinto.
Actually going about adding two top-six wingers is more difficult than simply wishing it into existence. Without knowing the budget constraints or what the Senators are comfortable doing, if the Senators are intent on using Formenton in a top-six capacity next season, there would be room for Paul at least until he’s displaced by a prospect like Ridly Greig.
The Senators could always lock Paul up and flip him down the road, but to do so is not without risk. Lengthy deals to bottom-six forwards can often become problematic when players fail to live up to the terms of their deal and a team becomes eager to shed it. In moving on from Paul now, the Senators would likely be selling at a point in Paul’s career when he’s the most valuable.
Fetching a valuable pick that the Senators can use or package to flip in a separate deal to bring in a top-six forward would be ideal. But, if the Senators roll with Formenton in the top-six and fail to find an upgrade on Paul, management will get criticized. And, for a front office that has repeatedly struggled to identify and acquire talented established players, that is a very big concern — especially now when the franchise needs to make inroads and push for a playoff berth with this young core beginning its prime years.
Injured Blue Liners
The Senators’ luck with injuries this season has been horrendous. Thomas Chabot sustained a hand injury in Wednesday night’s game against the Blue Jackets.
At North Dakota, Jake Sanderson’s been dealing with a rash of injuries.
The expectation was that once Sanderson’s season at North Dakota ended, he would sign a professional contract and start playing games immediately with the Senators. After undergoing surgery, there simply is no guarantee that he will play games this season for Ottawa.
And when the team is playing out the string and playing for pride with 22 games left, it was easy to get excited about the prospect of watching well-regarded Sanderson play. With the possibility that Sanderson and Chabot may not play again this season, the Senators an already weak defensive corps could be easily overwhelmed.
It certainly is a great chance for Brannstrom to showcase what he can do with increased opportunities and ice time, but the Senators’ performance when Chabot is not on the ice is woeful.
Hockeyviz.com’s visuals help illustrate the impact that Chabot has had on the Senators this season.
When Chabot’s on the ice, the Senators generate below-average expected goal rates, but relative to when he’s off the ice, it is easy to see how impactful he is.
Without Chabot, the Senators go from almost generating league average expected goal rates (-1%) to 2.31 expected goals per 60 minutes (-9%).
On defence, the effects are similar.
The Senators go from giving up more than the league average number of expected goals against, but when Chabot’s off the ice, the rate spikes significantly.
There is a chance that things will get ugly defensively down the stretch, but for fans clamouring for another high pick, maybe that’s not the worst thing in the world.
A Reverse Retro Possibility?
With news that the league will be bringing back new reverse retro jerseys next season, the Senators introduced some interesting new merch that pays homage to the team’s ‘Bring Back the Senators’ campaign that helped launch the modern rebirth of the franchise.
The logo and wordmark both vary from the original design.
I’m not really a huge fan of the reimagined design. To me, it looks too busy and I question why the team would not simply use and sell the original if it wanted to pay tribute to it. With this new logo though, I wonder if the team would try and introduce it on a jersey — possibly as early as next season on the reverse retros.
Dean and Good keep saying how much NP is liked by teammates. But Dean repeatedly says that in pro sports, that's not a primary consideration for management. NP is a - 18 according to on-line stats. He has low point production. 4 X 2.5 is a life changing payday. I think he's making a mistake not accepting it.