The Impact of Quality Goaltending, Contention Windows, and First Half Impressions
After enduring a few underwhelming seasons, watching a young NHL team play more consistently and enjoy having a little more recurring success is one of the most gratifying feelings for a fan base.
Every Senators fan is waiting for this organization to turn the corner and there have been some encouraging signs recently.
It all starts with the Senators’ goaltending.
Since returning from Belleville, Matt Murray has been outstanding. The veteran netminder has gone on a real heater and has posted some of the league’s best numbers since January 13th. In his nine appearances during this time, Murray has compiled a 5-2-2 record on the strength of a .949 all situations save percentage. According to NaturalStatTrick.com’s data, only Darcy Kuemper and Thatcher Demko have compiled a higher five-on-five goals saved above average (GSAA) metric to Murray’s 7.39. Across all situations, no goaltender has a higher GSAA than Murray’s 12.24.
During this stretch of games, Ottawa’s .922 five-on-five save percentage has been the league’s fifth-highest mark.
Not surprisingly, the performance of the goaltenders has also had a significant impact on special teams.
The Senators’ penalty killing units have been exceptional since early December. Following the team’s 6-2 loss to Vancouver in which they allowed two power-play goals, since December 2nd, the Senators’ penalty kill has operated at a 93.2 percent success rate. Only the Carolina Hurricanes (93.8) have been better over this span of time.
Relative to the volume of shots given up, the Senators’ penalty kill still gives up some of the highest shot and expected goal shares in the league.
NaturalStatTrick’s data shows that the Senators still rank in the bottom-10 in the rate stats for shots (CA), shots on goal (SA) and expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60. The biggest difference is that Senators goaltenders have combined to stop 93.38 percent of all shorthanded shots on goal.
Although the team’s shot-based metrics have not improved markedly from when the team was struggling, Murray and Anton Forsberg have given this team an opportunity to win every night.
It is probably fair to assume that there is going to be some regression — especially on the penalty kill — at some point in the future, but even if the Senators just get league average goaltending from hereon out, that is a significant improvement from where the team was at earlier in the year.
Even with some regression, the Senators can counteract that with improved performance on the ice. For all the success that the team has enjoyed of late, it is easy to look at the players missing from the lineup and wonder how improved this team will be. The absence of Drake Batherson and Josh Norris at the top of the lineup looms large while Colin White would help improve the team’s bottom-six depth.
The opportunity has created a chance for Tim Stützle to play down the middle and flourish in his new role, but no one knows how good Shane Pinto can be. He certainly has not looked out of place in any of the 17 NHL games that he’s played in over the last two seasons and thanks to the presence of Norris and Stützle, there should be less pressure on Pinto.
To think of Pinto as a player who may project to be the best two-way centre the organization has, it is exciting to think about the kind of depth that the Senators have down the middle.
In the same vein, Jake Sanderson has not played for the Senators yet, but the hype is very real. The fifth overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft has only improved his stock with each passing NCAA season and the expectation is that he will join the Senators once his collegiate season is over at North Dakota.
Without many quality options on the left side, the expectation is that Sanderson will step in and immediately play top-four minutes. Even if the offence does not play up right away as he adjusts to the pro game, the assumption is that Sanderson’s skating, gap control and puck-moving ability will give the Senators blue line the depth it needs to turn around its fortune.
For far too long, this organization has struggled with team defence. Although it has relied heavily on its forechecking and neutral zone defence to counterpunch and create offence, once the opposition has established possession in the offensive zone, the Senators have struggled and often found themselves on the wrong end of the puck possession battle.
Ottawa’s shot share is something that the team is going to have to improve upon. Adding quality depth like Sanderson and Pinto should help move the needle, but that needle is going to have to move soon.
From what we know of NHL aging curves and a player’s most valuable seasons, skaters typically peak between 22 and 27 years of age.
I wrote about aging curves in an article for The Athletic in 2017:
In the Hockey Prospectus 2011-12 annual, Timo Seppa looked at production data and made a few discoveries regarding forwards:
Production increases gradually from sophomore season through peak around 25 or 26 years old
Production decreases gradually until approximately 32 years old
Faster decline starts sometime in a player’s early thirties
Obviously, with players like Jaromir Jagr or Ron Francis, there are exceptions to that rule. There is statistical randomness, too, but it’s reasonable to expect the majority of players to follow this general trend.
In a separate study, Eric Tulsky, now serving as the Carolina Hurricanes’ manager of analytics, found that “on average, players retain about 90-percent of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp – they hit 80-percent at age 31, 70-percent at age 32-33, and 60-percent at age 35.”
Looking at the Senators’ core, Brady Tkachuk (22), Alex Formenton (22), Thomas Chabot (25), Artyom Zub (26), Drake Batherson (23) and Josh Norris (22) have already entered their prime seasons while Shane Pinto will turn 22 this November. Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson will enter their primes in two years, but the reality of Ottawa’s situation is that we’re entering into the window in which this team’s young core should statistically be near its peak.
The team may not be at its best for another two or three seasons, but this organization needs to make inroads from a competitiveness standpoint as early as next season. This young core needs to play meaningful games and it is going to be the responsibility of management to support the pieces that they have put in place.
Adding quality depth pieces and making critical evaluations of its young players will be paramount. Are players like Lassi Thomson, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Egor Sokolov, Ridly Greig and Erik Brannstrom close to becoming regulars? And if so, how good can these players be? If the organization is not confident in their upside aligning with its core window, maybe it will be forced to consider looking at alternatives?
We are certainly closer to a point where the organization has to improve the calibre of its roster, but the inherent risk that lies with that is that this regime’s trade record has not been good when it comes to evaluating and acquiring talent. Every organization should be wary about roster management and flipping inexpensive assets out, but for an organization whose owner does not have the financial wherewithal to spend to the cap ceiling, the margin for error is exponentially larger than that of its peers.
It is going to put an enormous amount on management to navigate the process and avoid the pitfalls moving forward.
First Half Review
Here is a quick rundown of my surprises and disappointments for the first half of the season:
Surprises
Alex Formenton’s Offence: as a player who almost exclusively created all his chances using his speed, I was skeptical that Formenton had enough skill and creativeness to create offence using his linemates and working off the cycle to play as a top-six winger. I thought he was destined to play as a quality third-line depth scorer and PK specialist. In recent weeks however, it is like the game has slowed down for him and he is using the time and space to create opportunities for his linemates. His five-on-five points per 60 rate is one of the highest on the team and he is now getting some regular power-play minutes as well.
Drake Batherson: Batherson is not here because his production was unexpected. He has always been a gifted offensive producer at every level that he has played at, but this year, it went to another level. Batherson’s 3.47 points per 60 (all situations) is 1.26 points higher than his previous career-high. His shot rate is higher and the points aren’t being driven largely by some massive spike in shooting percentage that should normalize. Batherson’s just found another level offensively and after signing a team-friendly contract with the Senators in the offseason, the organization has to be thrilled with his development.
Tim Stützle: Since moving to the centre position, Tim Stützle’s development has taken a marked leap. Given his age and skill set, no one was down on his long-term outlook as a prospect, but playing centre has allowed Stützle to assert himself at the NHL level. With increased defensive responsibilities and an opportunity to get more touches, Stützle is thriving and his defensive game has continued to improve. Without a few key injuries down the middle, Stützle may never have received this opportunity, but now, it alleviates the organization’s need to look outside the organization for another centre.
Pierre McGuire: Since being hired in the offseason to be the team’s senior vice-president of player development, the understanding was that McGuire would be prominently featured as the spokesperson of the organization. Given his background and the struggles of ownership and management’s ability to build fan confidence in the organization because of their shortcomings as communicators, McGuire seemed like a natural fit. To this point, he has been conspicuously absent.
Disappointments
Goaltending: Notwithstanding Matt Murray’s last nine appearances, the Senators’ goaltending situation helped put the team in an inescapable hole that ensures the team will miss the postseason for a fifth consecutive season. If Murray can build upon this stretch, it will go a long way to restoring some confidence in the position, but if there is any regression, it will raise significant questions about how the organization can address the position — especially since Anton Forsberg is not a long-term piece and Filip Gustavsson has struggled with his consistency after a promising finish to his 2020-21 season.
Injuries: Despite the silver lining of Tim Stützle’s development as a centre, key injuries to Ottawa’s young core has easily been the worst development of the season. Fans can tolerate losing seasons if it means accruing better young assets or watching young players develop together, but injuries have robbed us of that opportunity. For players like Brannstrom, Pinto, Norris and Batherson, they have or will miss significant chunks of the season when they could be developing chemistry and experiencing the ups and downs of an NHL season with the rest of this young core.
Blue Line Depth: After the team’s finish to the 2020-21 season, the expectation was that the organization would rely on Erik Brannstrom and Victor Mete having larger roles in 2021-22. That never really materialized. Nick Holden and Michael Del Zotto were brought in over the summer to add veteran depth to the team’s left side and neither player has been particularly impactful. Inked to a two-year, $4.0 million contract, Del Zotto was waived and sent to the minors just 10 games into his Senators career. Holden has moved up and down the lineup, but he’s miscast as a second-pairing guy. Injuries and ineffectiveness have hampered Brannstrom’s season while Victor Mete has resembled the player that the Canadiens gave up on last year. The right side has not been much better. Nikita Zaitsev and Josh Brown have not been good and while Artyom Zub has been fine, it’s still a down season for him relative to how he played last season. If the Senators are going to take a massive step forward, it has to start on the blue line. Jake Sanderson is going to be one sizable addition, but the team needs improved play from its depth and is relying heavily upon Sanderson here to provide it.
The Standings: With the amount of young talent on the roster, the hope entering the season was that the organization would build off its finish and put a more competitive product on the ice that could move up the standings. Even if the playoffs were unlikely, the expectation that this group would play more meaningful games down the stretch seemed reasonable. Poor goaltending and special teams put this team on the mat before the All-Star break arrived. Without a ton of valuable trade chips that the team can turn into draft capital, the biggest changes for improvement will have to wait until the offseason.