"The Framework of a Trade"

Sens and Flyers reportedly have a trade in place

Steve Staios may have done it.

Almost six months to the day he inherited the role, the general manager of the Ottawa Senators is reportedly very close to pulling the trigger on a deal.

With all apologies to Vladimir Tarasenko, who approved the only destination he would waive his NTC for at this year’s trade deadline, Staios has not made a significant move of consequence since he became the Senators’ general manager on December 31st, 2023.

Or, maybe it’s not as close as it is being made to appear.

If what Yost is reporting is true about the trade playing out in a week — the 2024 NHL Draft begins on June 28th — Dreger’s information fits. Neither side will publicly acknowledge anything is taking shape until a deal is finalized.

What is interesting is how Yost framed his tweet. If a “framework” is in place, that would suggest a larger deal is in the works or predicated on other outside factors.

One rumour out of Philadelphia suggested that the Flyers were on the verge of adding a Senators defenceman.

Thanks to the nature of the internet, speculation is wildly rampant. Jakob Chychrun’s name has been linked to the Flyers for months. If he’s “NOT the defenceman everyone assumed”, that could mean anything. This spurred the internet using it as a leaping-off point believing it could be some blockbuster centred around Thomas Chabot. This, in turn, led to performative mental gymnastics to explain why trading the defenceman makes sense.

Every defenceman on the roster not named Jake Sanderson is likely available for the right price, but when the prevailing opinion is that the team will likely move on from Jakob Chychrun this summer, would the Senators be willing to move that much talent from one of the few positions of strength on the roster?

It feels like a stretch, but when looking at the Flyers roster on CapFriendly, it is difficult to project which players the Senators are targeting. Scott Laughton is a name that has been linked to Ottawa for months, but that level of interest was largely attributed to the previous regime.

Laughton carries the intangibles that the Senators are reportedly looking to add to their mix, but the winger’s game has fallen off a bit of a cliff.

On the surface, the two years and $3.0 million AAV does not seem offensive considering he produced 13 goals and 39 points. His defensive game is where the struggles lay. Evolving Hockey’s total defence (DEF) metric that tries to encapsulate how much defensive value a player created through their even strength and penalty kill play, no forward less defensive value than Laughton (-9.3 DEF) in 2023-24.

HockeyViz’s data backs it up.

When Laughton is on the ice, the Flyers spend all their time defending in their end.

He is a completely different player from Dominik Kubalik, but they share one similarity. Their respective weaknesses undermine what good they do offer. For as much praise as his secondary scoring and intangibles receive, that value is sunk by their performance on the defensive side of the puck.

The forwards’ defensive play is an area the Senators are desperately trying to improve upon, but my concern is that an addition like Laughton could exacerbate it. I understand the importance of improving Ottawa’s quality of depth and, while on the topic of Kubalik, replacing the league’s least valuable forward this past season should be easy. Anyone else would represent an upgrade, but I would probably try to aim higher than the league’s fourth-least valuable forward per Evolving Hockey.

The only way a Laughton deal would make sense for me is if the Senators dumped an undesirable contract back the other way. Joonas Korpisalo does have a connection with Flyers head coach John Tortorella. The two spent five seasons together in Columbus between 2016-17 and 2020-21.

The Senators have aggressively been trying to find someone to take the goaltender off their hands, so maybe acquiring a short-term problem is the answer.

The Flyers do have some intriguing talent, but those players are the same ones they would want to keep in the fold (ie. Owen Tippett, Joel Farabee, Tyson Foerster). One exception is winger Travis Konecny who would be a good addition to the Senators’ top six — especially given his familiarity and connection to Claude Giroux. He also has some ties to the community through his junior career with the Ottawa 67s.

Konecny is in the last year of a contract that carries a $5.5 million AAV and grants him unrestricted free agency next summer — meaning if the Senators pursue him, they need to sign him to an extension. Another problem is that he won’t come cheap. Ottawa is in a difficult position because they do not want to remove too much from the parent roster. The fact that its farm system is not brimming with blue-chip prospects compounds the problem because the organization should have more desirable trade chips than it does considering how long the rebuild has taken.

If Philadelphia is looking for a futures-laden deal, it could be tough for Staios to pull the trigger knowing that moving valuable draft assets out will prevent him from restocking the farm.

Other News and Notes:

• The Senators have signed Jamieson Rees to a one-year, two-way contract. Rees was acquired in a minor league trade near this year’s trade deadline. Rees was a second-round pick (44th overall) of the Hurricanes in 2019. Incidentally, he was taken with a pick the Senators dealt to move up in that draft to select goaltender Mads Sogaard. Rees played 14 games in Belleville last season picking up four assists.

• Defenceman Nikolas Matinpalo signed a one-year extension of his own. It is another one-year, two-way contract. The right-shot defenceman appeared in four games for the Senators and 67 AHL games in Belleville. After losing Lassi Thomson to Malmo of the Swedish Elite League this offseason, the Senators needed to bolster their depth on the right side. Locking up a mid-20s defender who the organization is quite familiar with makes sense.

• Reports surfaced that the Islanders may be forced to buy out Gatineau legend Jean-Gabriel Pageau. The popular former Sen has two years remaining on a deal that has a $5.0 million cap hit. If the buyout comes to fruition, I would not be opposed to seeing him reunite with the Sens depending on what the cost would be. Pageau registered 11 goals and 33 points in 2023-24, but his defensive metrics slumped. He is known for his defensive aptitude so any dip is a genuine concern. He did however post solid defensive metrics the two seasons prior, so maybe that mitigates that worry.