The Dualism of Alfredsson's Post Game Comments
The Senators’ trip to Stockholm as part of the NHL’s Global Series provided so many incredible moments.
The organization’s social media team did an excellent job capturing the off-the-ice bonding moments — like Claude Giroux's faceplanting and antics during the team’s semi-competitive padel tournament which Daniel Alfredsson won convincingly. On the ice, Tim Stützle iced the Red Wings with a walk-off bomb that was just missing an accompanying bat flip and Gatorade shower. As a follow-up, countrymen Anton Forsberg and Erik Brannstrom played key roles in leading the Senators to a 2-1 shootout win over the Wild.
The week went about as well as the Senators could have hoped, but when I think about the week, I keep coming back to Daniel Alfredsson’s post-game comments following their victory over the Red Wings.
Following Thursday’s 5-4 overtime win, Brady Tkachuk handed Daniel Alfredsson the game puck to commemorate his first win while being behind the bench as a coach.
Using the opportunity to impart some words, Alfredsson thanked the players before expressing a sentiment most fans shared while watching the team blow a 4-0 lead in the second period.
“Keep playing like this, I’ll coach 10 games and have a heart attack. But, you stuck with it. Third period was pretty good after what happened in the second. And, finding a way to win is all that matters in this league, so great job boys.”
Nothing like the former captain trying to keep it light by subtly letting them know they stunk before sending them out with an optimistic closer.
Alfredsson’s message highlights this weird dualism that is going on with the Senators right now. Undoubtedly, winning matters. Especially for a team that has aspirations of clawing its way back into the postseason mix. Whether it is the fans, the players, the management or the employees, everyone’s life is more enjoyable if this team wins more.
To quote Paul MacLean, “A win is a win is a win.”
Winning is important and the two wins in Sweden gave the Senators a record of 8-7-0 and finally pushed them above .500. They are currently in second-last place in the Atlantic Division but are four points back of the second wild card spot with games in hand. One good stretch of hockey will put them right back into the Eastern Conference playoff mix. Which, given the circumstances, is pretty incredible because things could be a hell of a lot worse.
The Senators have played 15 games, so we are not quite at the quarter mark of the season when we can start saying it is just a small sample size. But, we’re close.
The Senators’ underlying shot and goal metrics are uninspiring. They rank in the bottom third of the league in a few important five-on-five metrics according to NaturalStatTrick’s data.
47.76 CF%, 24th
49.37 SF%, 19th
45.81 xGF%, 29th
45.15 SCF%, 29th
The Senators are 4-1-0 in their last five games, but during these games, they outscored the opposition by one goal at five-on-five (13-12). They were outshot (48.61 CF%), outchanced (44.71 SCF%) and on the wrong side of the expected goal column (49.54 xGF%).
It has not been pretty from the player’s side. JFreshHockey graphs player performance using a variety of metrics. Contrasting the expected goals and expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five hockey paints an unflattering picture of the performance of this team’s forwards.
The good news is that they have found ways to win. The Sens have exceeded their shot and expected goal share on the strength of their five-on-five shooting percentage. They have scored the twelfth-highest number of five-on-five goals (39) while possessing the league’s second-highest five-on-five shooting percentage (11.08).
If the Senators experience any regression in their shooting percentage, it could get ugly without any improvements to the defensive structure that Alfredsson alluded to.
As an aside, it is not the first time this season that Alfie has referred to the team’s defensive ability.
“When I came in, we were very good defensively [under Jacques Martin] but needed to work on our offence,” said Alfredsson, who led Ottawa to a 2007 Stanley Cup Final. “This group is a bit the opposite. Going forward, I think that’s something I can help with — a little more attention to details. Not just with the puck but without the puck. Defence, I always found, is easier to teach than offence.”
Regression does not have to just affect the positive metrics, however. If the Senators’ shooting percentage can normalize, their ugly metrics can positively improve too. The Senators’ goaltending is an obvious candidate to improve. The team should certainly be able to get more out of Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo.
The real pressure is for their play to improve as a five-man unit, however.
Is there a chance they will improve significantly or anytime in the interim?
For all the individual talent on this team, it feels like Ottawa’s defensive aptitude should be further ahead than it is. Lapses in coverage and support continue to plague them. In fairness, they have been plagued with injuries and the absence of a few noteworthy players. Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub, Josh Norris, Ridly Greig and Shane Pinto have all missed multiple games at various times.
There is no doubt those are integral pieces, but to guard against the loss of so much talent, having an efficient and engrained defensive structure that players can trust and fall back on can help mitigate a ton of problems.
They have to fix it. How? When? Can they? Those are the questions that management has to weigh.
After five seasons at the helm under D.J. Smith’s direction, it is hard to shake this nagging feeling that despite some recent wins, we may be no closer to reaching that goal.
Ottawa’s expected goals for percentage of 44.16 is the franchise’s lowest mark in the history of the analytics era according to Evolving-Hockey. This 2023-24 iteration is allowing 63.30 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five hockey. Not only is this the worst rate of the D.J. Smith era, but it is again one of the franchise’s worst rates since these stats began being recorded in 2007.
Listening to management and the players, no one will question their enthusiasm and loyalty to Smith. The common refrain is that changes are not necessary because the players continue to work hard.
It certainly looks like the players have not quit on the coaches, but when the players are working and the middling results continue with poor underlying numbers, it means one of two things. Either the players lack the aptitude to understand what is being asked of them or the coaching staff is struggling to communicate and employ a system that works.
A system that some professional analysts are taking issue with or cannot easily identify.
"Are they playing man on man? I can't tell. Are they playing a complete zone? I can't tell. Are they playing man and a half? It's either one of those three things." ~ Jamal Mayers on the Senators’ November 8th broadcast on Sportsnet.
…
"If I'm Joonas Korpisalo, I am completed pissed off." ~ Cheryl Pounder bluntly assessing Ottawa’s lack of structure during the November 16th regional broadcast.
Working hard eventually has to translate to better five-on-five shot and goal metrics. It will have to if the Senators have any hopes of ascending the Eastern Conference’s pecking order.
Getting defensively responsible players like Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig back should help the team’s depth and two-way play, but Pinto will not return until January at the earliest and Greig has at least resumed skating.
The troubling part is that Hockeyviz’s data shows that the Senators are below average when it comes to suppressing shots and expected goals. It is not just the volume of chances that the Senators are giving up, it is where the Senators are giving up their chances.
All that shot volume around the net is a recipe for disaster and interestingly, the Senators simply aren’t generating enough volume of their own.
The silver lining to the team’s start is that the team is above .500 with plenty of runway left. Their finishing ability and the offensive talent in their top six have kept their season afloat.
Through the first two months of the season, I have been impressed with how ownership and management have conducted themselves. We are still waiting for the first transaction of the post-Dorion era, but both Michael Andlauer and Steve Staios appear to be calculated and measured in their approaches. With a beefed-up hockey operations department that has added an analytics department, there is every reason to believe the decision-makers will make informed decisions to right the ship.
How long that process takes to play out is another matter. The delayed sale of this franchise did not help. This group will need time to properly assess and remedy its problems. Discerning the noise from what matters will be integral.
Wins matter, but in this instance, are they also the statistical noise?
Can this team have sustained success and growth without significant improvements to its five-on-five play? How much more time needs to pass before this young core is taught how to play as part of a cohesive unit?
Hopefully, it won’t be long. Alfie’s health may depend on it.