The DeBrincat Market Takes Shape, Sens Trying to Create Leverage
Since it was announced that Alex DeBrincat had submitted a list of preferred destinations to the Senators, the posturing between both camps has predictably played out through the media.
Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch has posited that DeBrincat “refused” the Senators’ offer and has no interest in re-signing in Ottawa or spending the next eight years playing in Canada. On the other, The Hockey News’ Steve Warne reported from a source close to the DeBrincat family that the winger enjoyed his time in Ottawa.
“Alex likes the coach a lot and loves the team,” indicated Warne’s source. “He would like to stay in Ottawa, but knows this is the deal that needs to have term.”
These two reports could not be more diametrically opposed. It is intriguing that Garrioch’s language, even dating back to DeBrincat’s noncommital and relatively innocuous comments from his exit interview with the Ottawa media, has been heavily slanted towards an inclination that the winger is intent on leaving.
If I had to wager, my assumption would be that DeBrincat is willing to stay in Ottawa, but it has to be an eight-year contract near full market value. With an internal payroll structure in place designed to keep players below what is owed to Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle, DeBrincat’s ask to remain in Ottawa may not align the team’s future plans.
Which, seems kind of crazy considering the opportunity cost that the Senators were willing to pay at last year’s draft. But, with so much money locked into this team’s young core and Jake Sanderson and Shane Pinto needing extensions of their own, refusing to allocate a ton of money to an undersized goal-scoring winger who does not carry a ton of defensive value might wind up working out better in the long-term.
Given the $63 million, eight-year pact ($7.875 million AAV) that Jesper Bratt signed this past week, that feels like it should be in the neighbourhood of what DeBrincat can be expecting. It just reportedly won’t be in Ottawa.
According to Garrioch, five destinations believed to be on the DeBrincat’s preferred list of teams includes the Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, Florida Panthers, Vegas Golden Knights and the Detroit Red Wings.
In Scott Wheeler’s midseason rankings of the NHL’s farm systems for The Athletic, he had the Red Wings as having the highest-rated pipeline in this group. Their fourth-place ranking placed ahead of Nashville (10), Dallas (16), Vegas (23), and Florida (26). Detroit also differs in the sense that they are still a rebuilding club while the others are looking to preserve their competitiveness or push their teams closer to their Stanley Cup aspirations.
What is unknown are the motivations of Dorion in a trade when he is looking for the best value. Does that value represent adding the best assets regardless of how close they are to contributing to the NHL roster and his team’s competitiveness now or is he looking to take lesser prospects and picks if it means that he is able to add pieces to his roster now? If he is engaged in talks with teams trying to compete now, are those teams going to be comfortable moving young NHL pieces off their roster?
Given the limitations of the list, other organizations outside of DeBrincat’s preferred destinations have reportedly kicked tires giving Dorion more trade avenues to exhaust.
A larger market of suitors is beneficial and the prospect of a sign and trade should theoretically allow Dorion to maximize the trade return, but hopefully, this leaked information is grounded in reality and simply is not just a sign of the Senators desperately trying to create leverage ahead of next week’s draft.
Garrioch’s not the only reporter doing Dorion a solid, Pierre LeBrun noted that Dorion is willing to accept a 2024 first-round pick if the offers are not to his liking.
“Dorion isn’t boxing himself into a corner, pointing to next week as a hard deadline. From talking to other sources around the league, I believe Dorion would view a 2024 first-round pick just as valuable, and if that’s the case, it would take pressure off having to make the trade in Nashville.”
If that 2024 first-round pick winds up being a high one, it is not the worst-case scenario. If, on the other hand, that draft pick is the centrepiece of the deal, it is hard not to be disappointed. Turning their 2022 seventh-overall pick into presumably a selection of lesser value that is two years down the road isn’t exactly ideal. Instead of the possibility of introducing an inexpensive young player into their lineup who has a good chance of outproducing his contract, it may be years before this prospect sniffs the Senators’ lineup. In fact, whatever draft pick they land may have more utility as a trade chip and that says something, considering how their farm system has graduated its best players and lacks safely projectable high-end talent.
It is not an ideal situation, but it will be fascinating to see what direction Dorion will pursue.
One of the suggestions making the rounds on the interwebs is that the Red Wings are offering the 17th overall pick in 2023 with Filip Zadina and another draft selection for DeBrincat.
Zadina will be well-known to Senators fans as the fifth overall selection who was taken immediately after Brady Tkachuk in 2018. The Tkachuk selection was a contentious pick in some corners of the internet because of concerns with his goal production (8 in 40 games) at Boston University during his draft year.
As an organization that desperately needed an infusion of skill, Zadina’s 44 goals and 82 points in 57 QMJHL games in Halifax spurred debate as to who the Senators should select.
Years later, we all know the Senators’ amateur staff chose wisely. Tkachuk already has two 30-goal seasons under his belt and the combination of his character, leadership, physicality and willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice has endeared himself to fans in the nation’s capital.
Zadina, on the other hand, has yet to establish himself at the NHL level. Despite the Red Wings putting up some decent underlying shot and expected goal metrics while Zadina was on the ice last season, the winger only registered three goals and seven points in 30 games. Concerns about his size, speed and skating have impacted his development — which has fostered confidence issues in the player because of his lack of goal production.
It is always concerning when an organization that is at a similar stage of its development (and within the same division) is trying to move a player. At 23 years of age, maybe this is all Zadina is? The further we’re removed from his draft year, the less likely it is that the fulfills the lofty expectations that were once placed on him. Under the right circumstances, he represents a reasonable gamble to make, but there is a difference between Zadina and claiming a player like Eeli Tolvanen off of waivers last season. Tolvanen was available for the simple cost of absorbing his salary, Zadina’s inclusion in a trade for DeBrincat is as a throw-in who may devalue the rest of the prospective trade return. If I’m Dorion and these trade talks with the Red Wings are real, I’m looking at other alternatives that carry significantly less risk and better fit the composition and playing style this team is looking for. Or, I would remove him from the trade discussions entirely to boost the value of the other returned assets.
Toffoli on the Market
After it was revealed over the last several days that many of the Calgary Flames’ impending unrestricted free agents might be balking at signing long-term extensions, the likelihood of a teardown is very real.
One of the pieces that the Flames are reportedly fielding calls on is former Ottawa 67, Tyler Toffoli.
The Senators have had an interest in Toffoli before. During the 2020 offseason, Pierre Dorion reportedly pursued Toffoli as an unrestricted free agent before the winger ultimately chose Montreal. Three days later, the Senators pivoted and signed Evgenii Dadonov as their fallback option.
Toffoli is in the last year of a four-year, $17 million contract that carries an average annual value of $4.25 million. His base salary for the 2023-24 season is actually lower than his AAV. It clocks in at a paltry $3.5 million - a bargain considering the winger is coming off a 34-goal and 72-point campaign.
That cost certainty and production makes Toffoli desirable and given Ottawa’s intention of trading Alex DeBrincat, it makes sense why the Senators would be a suitor. They will need strong top-six production in DeBrincat’s absence and if they can find someone who can produce similar numbers to what DeBrincat contributed last season while costing the team significantly less money, that’s a bonus. Unfortunately, what makes Toffoli desirable will drive the demand for his services. In theory, it should make him a relatively expensive piece to acquire despite the fact that he only offers his next team one guaranteed year of service.
Toffoli is also a natural right shot, so with Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson already lining up on the right side, any Toffoli trade would necessitate moving one of these players to their off-side.
Neko Sparks Reflects on the Senators’ Sale Process
During what eventually became a very lopsided coverage process that often diminished the prospect of Neko Sparks’ ownership bid being successful, Sparks spoke to A.J. Perez about his experience.
Perhaps more than anyone, I thought Perez did an excellent job covering all of the ownership sale angles throughout the sale, but his interview for Front Office Sports created some really interesting responses from Sparks.
When asked about the incongruency in reports about whether he had the financial wherewithal to be successful in his bid, Sparks took the high road.
“We thought we had enough to secure the team. Obviously, that didn’t work out. We were very close. Our situation was misrepresented quite a bit in the media. There were numerous reports out that we were still looking for money, for example. We were doing the same thing that everybody else was doing: We were looking at our cap stack more solid.
Certain media outlets were reporting — and it was reported very negatively — that we were looking for capital. There were very negative connotations attached to my search for capital when I knew other bidders — with the exception of one — were also out in the marketplace looking for capital. We had a fully-funded bid submitted prior to the deadline.”
Perez then asked whether Sparks felt like these negative reports were fueled by race. Again, Sparks took the high road.
“I tend to be an optimistic person and, I think that it was because we were so different and that we were bringing something different to hockey. I think that was a bigger factor. So, if you’re doing something different, people are going to look or analyze that a little more diligently.
The funny thing is that at the beginning of the process, it was like, “Oh, great, the owners could be people of color.” But as the bidding went on and people started to take us seriously, it just got really intense and kind of negative. People focused on the wrong things.”
The interesting wrinkle is that most of the other bidders had previous experience dealing with the NHL. Michael Andlauer was a minority owner of the Montreal Canadiens and the league had familiarity with the Kimel brothers before the Penguins were sold to the Fenway Sports Group. These “preexisting relationships” with the league were acknowledged earlier in the interview and they were something Sparks believed worked against him. If his claims about his fully-funded bid are true, it stands to reason that the ones spreading false claims about his group were from his competitors or individuals within the league who were uncomfortable with the unknown.
I’d hate to think race played a part in that, but I’m not naive enough to dismiss it outright either. Full credit to Sparks for taking the high road, however. It would have been really easy to cynically criticize the league, the media and his rival bidders for how the process unfolded, but it feels clear that his pursuit of a franchise will not stop at Ottawa.
NHL Awards Night
The NHL handed out its hardware ahead of the 2023 NHL Draft in Nashville and there were a few items of note related to the Senators.
Former defenceman Erik Karlsson collected his third Norris Trophy becoming one of only nine defenceman to achieve that distinction. Only Bobby Orr (8), Doug Harvey (7), Niklas Lidstrom (7), and Ray Bourque (5) have collected more. To accomplish this feat at the age of 33 with his injury history is impressive and should only bolster his chances of being elected to the Hockey Hall of Fame as a first-ballot candidate.
Jake Sanderson was the only current Senator to be honoured. Sanderson was named to the NHL’s All-Rookie Team. He became the ninth Senator to achieve that honour joining Daniel Alfredsson, Marian Hossa, Sami Salo, Martin Havlat, Andrej Meszaros, Mark Stone, Brady Tkachuk, and Josh Norris.
Sanderson would ultimately finish sixth in Calder Trophy voting behind Matt Beniers, Stuart Skinner, Owen Power, Matias Maccelli, and Wyatt Johnston. Considering the similarity in points between Power (79 GP, 4 G, 35 Pts) and Sanderson (77 GP, 4 G, 32 Pts), I’m surprised that Sanderson did not get the same kind of love considering his defensive aptitude and impact. I’d even play up the fact that Sanderson performed well despite dragging Travis Hamonic around all season, but Power played most of his minutes alongside an ineffective Henri Jokiharju. It’s going to be fun watching these two defencemen go head-to-head as division rivals for the foreseeable future.
Sanderson finished with 200 ballot points on the strength of six second-place votes (0-6-14-20-28). Interestingly, Shane Pinto, who had 20 goals and 35 points did not receive a single vote.
It was not a great night for the Senators in terms of other votes. Claude Giroux received one fifth-place vote for the Selke Trophy as the league’s best defensive forward. Sanderson also received one third-place vote for the Lady Byng as the league’s most gentlemanly player.
Brady Tkachuk finished sixth amongst left wingers in the NHL All-Star balloting (0-4-22) while Tim Stützle was bizarrely classified as a left winger despite being a centre. He received four third-place votes.
Other News and Notes:
Ottawa was selected as the host city for the 2025 World Junior Hockey Championship. The last time the nation’s capital hosted was in 2009 when Jordan Eberle’s memorable goal in the waning seconds of the third period pushed Canada to an overtime victory over Russia and an eventual gold medal.
In Garrioch’s latest article, he had some good intel on the Senators’ list of impending free agents. While noting the club has not made a formal decision on whether to qualify Julien Gauthier as a restricted free agent, the belief is that the club will not tender qualifying offers to Dylan Gambell, Victor Lodin and goaltender Dylan Ferguson.
Although Alex Formenton is still a restricted free agent, the Senators do not have to qualify him again this season. After qualifying him last year and moving him to their reserve list, he remains the property of the club. Garrioch indicated that the expectation is that the Senators will move him at some point this summer — although with the taint of the Hockey Canada sexual assault allegations hanging over him, I have a hard time believing any team will bring him into the fold until they know which players will be implicated through the investigations.