Entering the preseason, all the Senators’ hype centred around the addition of two prominent forwards to the top-six mix.
Adding a two-time 40-goal scorer in Alex DeBrincat and a veteran two-way presence in Claude Giroux to Tim Stützle’s flanks represented a significant upgrade to Alex Formenton and Connor Brown. The photo adorning this post was even generating comparisons to the Senators’ infamous ‘Pizza Line’ photo that made the rounds during this franchise’s Stanley Cup run in 2007.
So much attention was being paid to this trio that it opened the discussion to whether they could unseat the Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson unit as the team’s first line.
Getting lost in all that attention is the return to health of Shane Pinto and the impact that his presence could have on the team’s third line featuring Tyler Motte and Mathieu Joseph.
Through four preseason games, this line has been Ottawa’s best at five-on-five.
Using NaturalStatTrick.com’s preseason data, of the forwards who have played more than 20 minutes at five-on-five this preseason, Motte (5.40), Joseph (4.36) and Pinto (3.27) are three of the team’s most productive players in terms of their points per 60 rate. Pinto leads the teams in goals per 60 with 2.18 while Motte is right behind him with 2.16.
It is not just the production when it comes to this line, however. In 44 five-on-five minutes together, this trio have combined to generate 56.34 percent of the total shots (CF%), 62.79 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 71.43 percent of the total goals (GF%) and 60.90 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). They have been really, really dominant in their two-way play.
Of course, this is a small sample size of games, but the Senators have to be encouraged from what they have seen from this line. During the offseason, it was easy to project Alex Formenton as being a potential fit there, but because of the Hockey Canada scandal, I was wondering whether Ridly Greig would get a long look because of pedigree and talent. When Greig got injured at the World Juniors this summer and the Senators signed Tyler Motte as a depth forward, it opened the door for Motte to assert himself in camp and lay claim to the third line left wing role.
Motte has been fantastic in the limited time that he has spent here, but it is easy to watch him play and wonder why he was simply unable to secure a multi-year deal.
I’m not knocking Formenton simply because his status is uncertain because of the Hockey Canada scandal, but one of his obvious shortcomings was the team’s defensive metrics when he was on the ice. As a slasher, he creates opportunities with his skating ability and unfortunately, almost everything that Formenton generates is off that speed. While it can create some very obvious and exciting individual chances, it often leads to a lot of one-and-done chances or pucks that quickly get turned back the other way. When Formenton is on the ice, there is never a ton of sustained offensive pressure and that helps explain why the Senators are constantly forced to defend in their own end when he is on the ice.
This can be easily seen through his HockeyViz isolation graphic.
Using other data, JFreshHockey’s ‘Player Card’ for Formenton emphasizes how little value Formenton contributed on the defensive side of the puck.
None of this is to say that Formenton does not have value. He still contributes positively offensively and on the penalty kill where his speed allows him to disrupt plays and force the opposition to rush shots and passes. But, in replacing him with Motte on the third line, it may very well wind up being a net positive for the Senators in the sense that Motte is able to positively impact that line in more ways. Depending on the outcome of the Hockey Canada investigation and with the presence of Ridly Greig, Formenton could ultimately wind up being an expendable piece that the Senators could move to address another area of need.
That process will need to unfold and it may be a long way away, however.
In the interim, Senators fans can only hope that this third line continues to produce and mitigate the opposition’s chances to give the Senators three solid lines that can keep their opponents on their toes.
Senators Working Towards an Extension with DeBrincat
The NHL Network’s Kevin Weekes came out and had Senators fans buzzing with anticipation with the rumour that the team and Alex DeBrincat were in discussions to hammer out a contract extension.
Having traded their 2022 first and second-round picks with a 2023 third-round, the opportunity cost always felt light. That the Senators may be on the verge of signing DeBrincat will make the trade feel comically lighter.
DeBrincat currently has two years left of team control. He is in the last year of his three-year contract which pays him $9.0 million ($6.4 million AAV) and will take him to restricted free agency.
The winger will turn 25 this December and after the Islanders signed Mat Barzal to an eight-year contract extension yesterday worth an average annual value of $9.15 million, that’s probably a bar that DeBrincat’s camp is looking to eclipse.
For what it’s worth, DeBrincat’s qualifying offer this summer would be $9.0 million for the Senators to maintain his rights.
Ideally, the Senators could get him under that figure on a long-term deal since it would give the team more resources to address other areas of need on the roster, but if they can get DeBrincat extended, that will constitute a win in itself.
DeBrincat is making me so excited. We haven't really been able to watch many natural and prolific goal scorers like him since the Pizza Line, and it looks like he's already developing chemistry with Giroux. Really excited for the season and hope the Sens can lock him up long term!