Sunday News and Notes: Matt Murray's disappointing start, injury scares, Pinto's accolades, Karlsson's comments and etc.
In terms of disastrous games, it is really difficult to understate how unfortunate Wednesday night’s 7-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers was.
The events of the game go beyond the boxscore. Matt Murray’s struggles have continued and there is no sugarcoating the fact his performance this season has been catastrophic. Murray remained in nets for every one of the Oilers’ seven goals and as an observer, it is easy to be empathetic with the player. Few of those goals were attributable to Murray, but more importantly, it has to be emotionally and mentally exhausting to give up that many knowing that he is desperate to string together some quality starts. Each time Murray has a quality start, he follows it up with an absolute dud. A function of that is the result of the Senators’ blue line and team defence. It was never going to be easy given Murray’s workload, but the longer this season goes on, the greater the concern the inconsistencies to Murray’s game are less attributable to variable occurrences than they are a reflection of his talent level.
Here is a video of the goals scored on Murray this season:
Murray relies on technique and positioning more than athleticism. He needs to be aggressive and square to the shooter to cut down angles. When he does this well, the pucks simply find Murray with a greater frequency. Too often this season however, has Murray played deep and struggled to track the puck through traffic. His glove hand, often perceived as a weakness, has been victimized on a number of occasions as well. When the strengths of Murray’s game break down, he simply doesn’t have the relative athleticism to help bail him out of bad situations.
The good news is that Murray has enjoyed success early in his career and is still relatively young. There is time for him to rediscover his form. The further we are removed from his first few seasons in the league however, the less likely it feels that the younger version of Murray will return.
Inked to a four-year, $25-million contract ($6.25M AAV), there is a significant amount of pressure on the player to live up to that contract. The only person who should be under considerably more pressure is the individual traded a valuable asset and inked Murray to that contract.
The red flags were everywhere and the Senators had the leverage. Murray was coming off a pitiful season. Statistically, he was one of the worst goaltenders in the league. With confidence in Tristan Jarry, the Pittsburgh Penguins had to dump and reallocate Murray’s salary while flirting with the restrictions imposed by the cap ceiling. As much Anders Nilsson’s post-concussion injury contributed to the need to find another goaltender, the likelihood of the goaltending market being saturated before the Seattle expansion draft should have afforded the Senators the luxury to be patient. At the very least, it afforded them the opportunity not to lock themselves into a long-term deal should a better alternative present itself shortly thereafter.
Unfortunately, last season’s struggles have continued here in the nation’s capital. According to Evolving-Hockey.com’s data, of the 93 goaltenders who have appeared in NHL games over the last two seasons, only one goaltender, Devan Dubnyk, has a lower goals saved above expected metric than Matt Murray’s -33.01.
If something as simple as playing Matt O’Connor in the Senators’ 2015-16 home opener helped influence the decision to fire Dave Cameron, will Matt Murray’s struggles and contract help put Pierre Dorion’s work under the microscope?
*Shrugs*
At the very least, if Murray’s struggles continue, it opens the door for Joey Daccord to play regularly. Although Daccord allowed six goals in the loss to Edmonton last Friday, visually, he looks like one of the most athletic goaltenders this organization has had since the days of Ray Emery and Pascal Leclaire. Before the aforementioned Edmonton game, Daccord’s numbers and underlying metrics looked good, so it will be fun to see watch his performance down the stretch.
Daccord and Murray are both eligible to be protected in this summer’s expansion draft and Ottawa can only protect one. Other goaltenders like Marcus Hogberg and Filip Gustavsson are also available to be selected, but given the terms of Murray’s contract, the Senators can leverage it to expose Murray and protect Daccord.
Injury Updates
Looking past Murray’s performance last Wednesday, there were two other scares for the Senators that occurred.
At the time, both injuries looked disastrous.
Acquired for a song from the Carolina Hurricanes, the Ryan Dzingel trade represented a roll of the dice. Adding his speed and offensive skills brought some depth to the lineup, but in truth, Dzingel represented a true opportunity to “pump and dump” a skilled player at the trade deadline. With any luck, Dzingel be productive and return the Senators a prospect or a pick in return. Fortunately, Dzingel participated in line rushes during this morning’s practice and it appears he will draw into the lineup on the team’s fourth line tonight.
Colin White’s bounce back play is one of the better stories from this season. Looking at the awkwardness of that tumble into the boards, it was easy to expect the worst. For a player who looks to be in the best shape of his career, there is an accompanying assertiveness and aggression to his game right now.
For a player who would be on a 20-plus goal pace in a regular 82-game season, it would have been hard to see White spend any significant amount of time on the shelf. He is a player who you want to see carry this positive momentum going forward.
Shane Pinto Collecting Accolades
In addition to playing in the National Collegiate Hockey Association’s (NCHC) playoffs with North Dakota, Senators prospect Shane Pinto has been busy collecting some hardware.
For the first time in the NCHC’s history, Pinto is the first unanimous selection as the conference’s ‘Player of the Year’. In 24 games for the Fighting Hawks, centre led the conference in goals (15) and points (28). This production led to Pinto being recognized as the conference’s ‘Forward of the Year’ and a ‘First-Team All-NCHC’ player.
As inspiring as Pinto’s production what really adds intrigue to the centre’s stock as a prospect is his defensive aptitude. Pinto’s aptitude, work ethic and faceoff prowess contributed to him also capturing the NCHC’s ‘Defensive Forward of the Year’ award.
For an organization that certainly has to improve its two-way play and skill level down the middle of its lineup, it is easy to dream on what Pinto can bring to the Senators over the next few years. With projected centres like Josh Norris, Colin White, Nick Paul, Tim Stützle and whomever the Senators could potentially take with another top pick this summer, this depth affords the organization the luxury of not having to rely exclusively on the development of one prospect. Moreover, this depth can give the Senators some young assets that they can look to move to address other holes on the roster.
Erik Karlsson Reflects on his Time in Ottawa
With the announcement that the San Jose Sharks were going to 'reset’, the media asked Erik Karlsson for his thoughts.
Karlsson’s comments started up a mini-shitstorm here in the nation’s capital with fans predictably going out of their way to staunchly defend the player or the Senators organization for what happened in Ottawa during Karlsson’s tenure (2009-18).
Some were tripping over themselves to defend the organization because it reached the postseason five times and went to a Conference Final. Conveniently, they neglected to acknowledge the sweeping dysfunction or the organization’s decision to rebuild in 2011 and again when Karlsson was being shown the door. From Daniel Alfredsson and Jason Spezza to more modern stars like Mark Stone and Karlsson, this era was characterized by the acrimonious departures of some high-profile players.
Conversely, it is fair to read Karlsson’s comments and point out that great times occurred while he was here. Not only was he a five-time All-Star and two-time Norris Trophy winner, his team enjoyed the magical ‘Hamburglar’ run and that 2017 Eastern Conference Final appearance. Furthermore, there has to be some irony in the fact that part of the reason why the Sharks feel compelled to retool is attributable to the performance of veterans like Karlsson.
Suffice it to say, the Senators are much better without Karlsson and enjoyed the best years of his career. The defenceman parlayed those years into a massive contract that he does not regret signing, so both parties are better off. This compulsive need to staunchly defend the organization or Karlsson is totally unnecessary.
The Mike Reilly Trade Market
Ignoring the odd defensive breakdown, Mike Reilly has had a relatively impressive and unheralded season on the back end. With 10 assists in 28 games, Reilly looks poised to establish a new career high in points.
The point production has been modest, but he has helped transition the puck effectively and has had a positive impact on the Senators’ shot rates.
Reilly is slated to test unrestricted free agency this summer. With Thomas Chabot, Christian Wolanin and Erik Brannstrom all under team control, it makes sense to kick the tires on what Reilly could fetch on the open market. Some analytically-inclined organization may view him as an intriguing target. At the same time, with uncertainty regarding Jake Sanderson’s decision to stay in school another year and with D.J. Smith’s reluctance to dress Wolanin and Brannstrom regularly (and especially in the same lineup), maybe it makes sense for the organization to look into a short-term deal with Reilly.
Thanks to reduced league revenues and the prospect of a flat cap hanging over the heads of teams for the next few seasons, the free agent market may not yield the kind of contract Reilly should be looking for. It only makes sense for him to try and cash in on a career season.
Whatever happens in contract discussions, Reilly’s season should put him on the radar of teams looking for a depth defenceman who can move the puck.