Shouldering the Load: Norris Sidelined Indefinitely, Senators Turn to Brassard and Pinto
One year after sustaining a shoulder injury that ended his season, it is ironic that Shane Pinto could be asked to shoulder the load now.
Today, head coach D.J. Smith announced that Josh Norris will miss the next three to five months with an undisclosed shoulder injury that occurred after he took an innocuous looking faceoff during the Arizona game on Saturday, October 22nd.
This shoulder injury is reportedly different from the one he sustained last season that forced him to miss 15 games. Norris is currently seeking multiple opinions to determine whether rehab or surgery is the best path for recovery. If it is the latter, there is no guarantee that he will be able to return to the lineup this season.
Every NHL team has to overcome adversity at some point during an NHL season and for the Senators, it just arrived early. Good teams find a way to persevere. The Boston Bruins started the season without Charlie McAvoy and Brad Marchand, but currently find themselves in first in the Atlantic Division.
The dilemma for the Senators is real.
The Senators’ strength lies in its top-six talent and centre depth and the loss of Norris is a blow on both fronts. The Senators are off to a strong 4-2-0 start and can ill afford to lose a core piece who scored 35 goals last season and plays a predominant role on the power play.
The Atlantic Division is already tight enough. Every team in the division has played six or seven games with no team winning fewer than three games. It feels like it’s going to be a mad scramble to the end of the season. With so much emphasis on picking up points early to build a cushion, overcoming this injury is going to be incredibly difficult.
Even though Norris only had a goal and an assist in his first five games, the DeBrincat-Norris-Giroux line generated 74.43 percent of the total goals per Evolving-Hockey’s data.
Missing three shots wide and ringing the iron twice never helped Norris’ bottom line, but his presence and play helped give the Senators two lines that dominated the opposition in terms of the five-on-five goal and shot share.
If there is a saving grace, it lies in the fact that the Senators have a young and exciting rookie centre who has averaged a point a game this season contributing five goals and an assist. Shane Pinto’s shooting percentage of 38.5 percent is hardly sustainable, but he has won 61 percent of his draws and there have been enough glimpses of skill and two-way aptitude to suggest that he is capable of playing up the lineup.
Norris’ absence could give Pinto the opportunity he needs to capitalize on playing with high upside talent in DeBrincat and Giroux. I am kicking myself for not putting money down on Pinto’s Calder Trophy upside earlier in the year, but if Norris is out for the season, there are not many rookies who will get the quality of minutes and quality of teammates that Ottawa can offer.
Of course, there is no guarantee that Pinto will step into Norris’ role anytime soon. The first opportunity went to Derick Brassard in Monday’s game against the Dallas Stars. The centre, who earned a one-year contract off his PTO, had 16:05 off ice-time and scored a beautiful goal over Scott Wedgewood’s glove.
Brassard earned a longer look and his presence is a blessing.
In years past, the quality of veteran depth simply has not been there. Norris’ injury would have created a void that would have necessitated sliding Pinto up without there being many quality depth options in Belleville.
With Mark Kastelic entrenched as the fourth line centre, there simply is not a ton of quality NHL-ready depth at the AHL level right now. Perhaps things would be different if Ridly Greig had a full training camp or had not sustained an injury of his own early in the season.
Once Greig gets healthy, plays some AHL games and demonstrates that he is ready to progress to the next level, he can earn that promotion. In the interim, having the centre depth that allows the organization to keep Pinto and Kastelic in their current roles where they are thriving is a huge positive for the organization.
If Brassard is not able to perform at a high and sustainable level for long, it is easy for the organization to turn to Pinto or even consider sliding Claude Giroux over to the centre from his right wing spot.
There is also the possibility that the Senators could look for outside help. Having Norris’ $7.95 million cap hit on LTIR will free up some cap space, but whether the Senators elect to go down that route remains to be seen. The organization possesses its first and second round picks in each of the next three NHL Drafts, but with it being so early in the season, the market is not exactly flooded with quality options. Barring some massive overpayment in assets, it is going to take time for the market to be fully developed.
The challenge for the Senators is that they will likely have to find an upgrade on Brassard, but the last thing they want to do is overpay on an asset simply because he is the best available player now. On the other hand, this team has playoff aspiritations and a deep need to ensure this young core experiences playing in meaningful games down the stretch. If general manager Pierre Dorion waits too long to find an upgrade, it may be too late.
Hopefully the play of this team’s centres affords the organization all the patience it needs.
Zaitsev Draws In
The most interesting news coming out of the morning skate was that defenceman Nikita Zaitsev was skating with Erik Brannstrom on the team’s third pairing. Head coach D.J. Smith confirmed after practice that Zaitsev would be drawing back into the lineup.
It is an interesting choice considering the Senators have rhymed off four straight wins. Coaches are typically averse to change when things are working.
And make no mistake, things are working.
The third pairing of Erik Brannstrom and Nick Holden that Smith wants to change up has played just north of 50 minutes of five-on-five hockey together per Evolving-Hockey. During that time, the duo has generated 56.27 percent of the total shots (CF%), 54.30 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 51.12 percent of the goals (GF%), and 63.20 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). In terms of their xGF%, no other Senators pairing has fared better.
In fairness to the coach, Holden could be nursing some undisclosed nagging injury. In that case, giving him a rest would be acceptable. Any other explanation does not really fit.
The Senators’ penalty kill has struggled with the league’s 26th ranked unit (76.3 percent success rate) and Holden does lead the team in shorthanded ice time per game (3:38). Perhaps that is one area where Smith feels Zaitsev could help his club, but considering the player’s struggles at five-on-five, it feels like a shortsighted play to improve one facet of the team’s game while submarining another.
When Zaitsev was on the ice versus the Toronto Maple Leafs at five-on-five, the Leafs outshot Ottawa (8-17, 32.0 CF%) and had more shots on goal (5-8, 38.46 SF%). The Senators did not score or allow a goal with Zaitsev on.
In the almost 10 minutes that Brannstrom and Zaitsev have played together, the Senators have posted sub-50 shot and goal rates.
Looking at the rate of shots and shots allowed, the Brannstrom-Zaitsev pairing has struggled to help the Senators generate and prevent shots relative to the other pairings.
Again, these are really small sample sizes that are being analyzed here, but Zaitsev’s inability to move the puck puts Brannstrom in a position to expose his greatest shortcomings as a player. If he is put in a position where most of his shifts are spent defending in his own end, it mitigates his strengths.
And for a team that desperately could use a win ahead of an important two game road trip to the sunshine state where they will face the division rival Panthers and Lightning, putting a lesser lineup on the ice tonight is a questionable decision.
I understand Smith’s loyalty to the player from their time in Toronto and maybe Holden is banged up, but if this is simply a matter of getting Zaitsev into a game, the choice deserves the scrutiny it gets.
Kastelic Inks Two-Year Extension
Mark Kastelic may not be able to turn water into wine, but the Senators centre turned his early season performance into a new contract extension.
The Senators announced this morning that their fourth line centre has signed a two-year, one-way deal worth an average annual value of $835,000. Kastelic was in the last year of his entry-level contract that paid him $821,667.
In six games this season, Kastelic has scored two goals and won 71.2 percent of his faceoffs. His role probably will not change during this time. Not with Tim Stützle, Josh Norris and Shane Pinto ahead of him on the depth chart.
Knowing that, inking Kastelic to a team friendly deal that barely pays him more than he is earning now should save the Senators money down the road. Even if it is just a few hundred thousand, that is money that the Senators can reallocate towards other needs.
It also maintains some consistency. If management knows it has its four young centres locked up, they can channel their thoughts towards addressing other components of the organization. What effect this has on Ridly Greig long-term from a positional standpoint will be interesting. Perhaps Greig becomes a candidate to fill the team’s third line left wing role.
Having young depth is always a nice problem to have — especially when that young depth can play at a quality level. If anything, Kastelic’s development and today’s reward sends a nice message to the other prospects on the farm that their progress and dedication can pay dividends too.