Shedding More Light on Ottawa's Defensive Woes
When it comes to analytics and data, it usually comes in one of two forms: 1) publicly available data; and 2) proprietary data.
On this site, I tend to focus on and use what is publicly available. Sites like NaturalStatTrick.com, Evolving-Hockey.com, JFresh Hockey, and HockeyViz.com are just a few of the invaluable resources that I rely on to help me substantiate opinions or observations. Although most of these sites rely on a subscription-based revenue model to sustain their continued operation, some of the sites are scaleable (or even free) for anyone to explore.
On social media, it is pretty commonplace for the hosts of these sites to post intriguing stats, visuals, or graphics to spur hockey discussion and drive the conversation. If you are here reading this site, chances are you’re already familiar with most of the work done by these individuals, but because of the emergence and growing interest in statistical hockey analysis, I feel like even some of the most casual of fans will have heard of or seen some of this work.
Proprietary data is different. At the team level, an organization will capture its own data and give weight to the items that it feels are important to evaluating and assessing players, teams, and strategies or tactics.
There is also proprietary data in which third-party companies will capture their own data to sell to NHL organizations. This data can be general or tailored to the specific requests of a team. Just this past summer, the Ottawa Senators revealed that they had finally agreed to start purchasing data from an undisclosed third-party distributor.
There are many benefits to both fields. With more resources, better technology and money, proprietary data companies often capture more data points in a much quicker way.
The problem with proprietary data versus publicly available data is that is incredibly expensive for any individual to subscribe and gain access. With fewer people reviewing the data, there is less opportunity for the public to analyze the data and come up with innovative ways to exploit market inefficiencies. The only times the public really has access to the data is when the league or its media partners use the data to supplement their online work or hockey broadcasts.
It is incredibly rare for this data to become available for public consumption, but I was recently sent some interesting stats regarding the Ottawa Senators’ defensive game.
The following data originated from SportLogiq, the self-professed “industry leader for NHL hockey data-collection and advanced analytics.”
‘ES’ refers to even-strength and this column of data shows that the Senators fare poorly in just about every defensive shot and pass metric. Maybe that will not come as a surprise given their place in the standings or to anyone who has watched the team consistently.
At the same time, it’s sobering to see how Ottawa ranks relative to their peers in so many of these specific stats — essentially ranking as one of the league’s worst-three teams in every category.
The Senators struggle to defend the slot and put pressure on the opposition. The only stat that they tend to rate highly in is the percentage of even-strength shot attempts blocked — which, is usually an indicator that the team is spending most of its time defending in its own end.
If only there was more data to prove that…
Thanks to the Senators’ struggle to create turnovers and transition the puck efficiently out of the zone, they spend a disproportionate amount of time in their end and now we can see it quantified.
Obviously, these problems are not explicitly a problem created by personnel or structure. The poor performance is going to be a byproduct of the two factors.
What management will have to determine is how much improvement in these metrics can be positively influenced by change.
The most obvious area to target for improvement should be the blue line. Jake Sanderson will be one pivotal piece of the puzzle, but Ottawa’s blue line will need at least another upgrade or two to really help push this team forward. Identifying and acquiring better talent is easy to say, but it’s going to be a challenge for Pierre Dorion to use his limited resources to procure that talent.
One of the easier changes to make may come from the head coaching position. Even though head coach D.J. Smith is reportedly well-liked by his players, the numbers speak for themselves and there has been little improvement in Ottawa’s defensive game.
There is a great argument to be made out the quality of the personnel management has acquired. In saying that, many of these players were acquired because of the coaching staff’s history and familiarity with these players.
With fewer than 30 games left on the schedule, the Senators are going to have to do a lot of introspective analysis to determine what went wrong and what is not working. Since Ottawa’s best young players are in or entering their productive prime years (22-27), this team’s window of optimum performance has started.
Every consideration to help improve this group’s chances of success needs to be put on the table.