Shark Bait: GM Mike Grier Will Listen to Offers for Erik Karlsson
So, you’re saying there’s a chance?
This week at the NHL general manager’s meeting in Toronto, San Jose Sharks general manager Mike Grier told reporters that he is willing to listen if teams began calling on former Senators defenceman Erik Karlsson.
"I'll listen, but at the end of the day too, a lot will depend on Erik too," Grier said after the NHL GM meeting Tuesday. "He's got the trade protection and [has control over] what he wants to do. I know right now he's happy. He's happy in San Jose. His family's happy there. And we're thrilled with how he's playing." ~ Mike Grier, via NHL.com
Had Grier’s admission occurred last season, the idea would have seemed ridiculous. Not in the sense that the Sharks would have been interested in moving on from Karlsson, but more in the sense that with the combination of Karlsson’s age, performance, and medical history, no team should be willing to roll the dice on a player whose career appeared to be in the diminished return stage of his career.
Since being dealt ahead of the 2018-19 season, Karlsson’s struggled to resemble the player that he was during his most productive years in Ottawa where his dynamic offensive ability and transcendent puck-moving ability largely overshadowed his defensive ability. Like any other offensive player, Covid shortened seasons have impacted Karlsson’s point totals, but his defensive game deteriorated significantly during the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons from his career norms.
HockeyViz.com’s historical snapshot of Karlsson’s career playing at five-on-five clearly shows a marked drop in performance on the defensive side of the puck. In each of the past two seasons, Karlsson has been significantly weaker than the league average in terms of the rate of expected goals allowed when he has been on the ice. (Note: these isolated impacts account for teammates, competition, the score, and his zone starts.)
It was easy to look at all of the factors and write him off as being in significant decline before even considering Karlsson’s contract. The 32-year-old is signed through the 2026-27 season at a cap hit of $11.5 million.
Karlsson appears to have turned back the clock this season. Through San Jose’s first 19 games, the Swede has tallied 11 goals and 28 points. Only four players have scored more goals (Connor McDavid, Bo Horvat, Andrei Svechnikov, and Tage Thompson) while only McDavid has more points.
It has been an impressive start to his season and with that kind of production while playing for a rebuilding team, Karlsson is inevitably going to draw the attention of prospective suitors.
The contract is still unpalatable. Even with the likelihood of an ever-increasing salary cap ceiling, too many of the league’s better teams are pushed right up against the cap. The only way a deal makes sense for the Sharks to rid itself of his contract and acquire some futures for their rebuild is to entertain the idea of taking on bad short-term contracts and be willing to retain up to half of what is remaining on Karlsson’s contract.
CapFriendly’s details of Karlsson’s contract can be read below:
The signing bonuses in the last two years of Karlsson’s deal could be a poison pill for a smaller market franchise like the Senators who would have to pony up all that cash for a one-time payment each summer. The organization has historically balked at giving out signing bonuses during its contract negotiations, but has taken on players with these bonuses before (ie. Nikita Zaitsev). Perhaps the new owner or ownership group’s philosophy will change once the organization is out of the Melnyk family’s hands.
If 50 percent of a contract is retained, the CBA outlines that this includes the signing bonus structure of the contract as well, so could benefit the Senators’ willingness to bring Karlsson back into the fold at an average annual value of $5.5 million.
Financially, the Senators could make that work.
Is Karlsson the right fit for the team moving forward?
The circumstances have certainly changed. I do not believe that Karlsson ever wanted to leave this city. He still makes Ottawa his offseason home and when he indicated that he would not entertain signing a long-term extension with the team in 2018, that was a reflection of the deterioration in his relationship with ownership and management. Whatever trust and confidence once existed was irreparably fractured at the time he left for San Jose.
With an intriguing mix of young talent, new ownership, and a new arena at LeBreton Flats on the horizon, the environment in Ottawa and the feel around the organization is the best it has been in almost two decades.
Sentimentally, adding Karlsson would represent another PR boost for the franchise. Karlsson was a generational talent who will go down as one of the most talented players in franchise history and like Giroux, his return would be another instance of a local guy who wants to come home.
On the ice, there is absolutely no question that Karlsson would be a massive upgrade to the players that the organization has repeatedly put out at its weakest position on the roster. When the traditional defensive defencemen on the roster have significant defensive shortcomings, it makes it easier to embrace the idea of adding Karlsson to the mix.
Offensively, the Senators could use his help at even strength and on special teams. When Karlsson is on the ice, his teams tend to out-shoot and out-chance the opposition because his poise, skating, and passing ability allow the team to transition the puck quickly from defence to offence. Despite operating at a 23.0 success rate on the power play through the team’s first 16 games, Karlsson offers something that the Senators don’t have: a threat to shoot from the top of the umbrella. As good as Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are at distributing the puck, neither is a viable threat to shoot. Opposing forwards can cheat down low and dare either defenceman to take a low-percentage shot from the outside. Karlsson’s willingness to shoot the puck from the blue line to the tops of the circle would theoretically afford the Senators’ most skilled forwards more time and space to do their thing.
If there is hesitation to acquire Karlsson, it probably stems from the philosophical questions about whether it’s prudent for the Senators to tie up more salary towards an aging player whose playstyle is similar to what they already have on the blue line.
That is not to say that defenceman on the roster can reach Karlsson’s talent and production levels, but it is more about how many defencemen the Senators need who have puck-moving ability and questions about their defensive aptitude.
Through almost the first quarter of this season, the Senators’ play has garnered attention for generating more offence. For the first time in a few years, the team is generating more shot and goal volume than the opposition at five-on-five.
NaturalStatTrick.com’s data has the Senators generating more than 50 percent of the shots (51.51 CF%, 10th in NHL), goals (52.24 GF%, 11th in NHL), and expected goals (51.94 xGF%, 12th in NHL) — which has led to many pundits saying that with better luck, the Senators would have more points than they currently do.
That analysis is not wrong and the underlying numbers when viewed within that context are encouraging. The rub is that the Senators are generating a ton of offence, but like many of the predecessors, this version of the Senators gives up a ton of chances as well.
Where Ottawa ranks in the top third of the league in shot and goal rates, the rate in which they give up shots and goals is almost proportionate.
Using NaturalStatTrick’s data again, here is how Ottawa ranks in terms of shot and goal rates:
CF/60: 63.33, 5th
CA/60: 59.61, 22nd
SF/60: 33.48, 5th
SA/60: 34.33, 30th
GF/60: 2.96, 7th
GA/60: 2.71, 19th
xGF/60: 3.08, 4th
xGA/60: 2.85, 26th
For as much as the Senators create offensively, they give up almost as much on the defensive side of the puck. It is a return to the high-event hockey that characterized the Paul MacLean era.
Run-and-gun hockey is certainly entertaining, especially when the team is young and the expectations are relatively low. At some point, some consideration will have to be made to improve this team’s defensive play. Too often this season, an inattentiveness to detail, coverage, and responsibility has cost the Senators in important moments and has fueled questions about whether it is the fault of the players, coaching staff, or some combination of both. It is probably the latter, but the easiest way to improve team defence is to upgrade the quality of talent on the blue line.
That is easier said than done, however.
The team did well to bring Artyom Zub out of Russian obscurity and having picks like Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson pan out has helped, but this organization has otherwise struggled in its valuations of defencemen. Too often, too much emphasis has been placed on character, physicality, or players that its coaching staff was already familiar with (ie. Nikita Zaitsev, Travis Hamonic, Josh Brown, etc.).
With the exception of Jake Sanderson, who looks like he is well on his way to becoming an excellent two-way force, the rest of Ottawa’s defensive corps either leans to being too one-dimensional (good puck-mover, not a strong defender) or too shitty (defensive defencemen whose qualities are undermined by poor hockey IQ and poor puck management skills).
While there is no question that I would rather have Erik Karlsson at $5.5 million than a Hamonic or a Zaitsev, his individual skill set probably does not make him a good fit for this team at this time.
The Senators desperately need to improve defensively, and I’m just not convinced that Erik Karlsson is the answer.
Even without looking at whether bringing him into a locker room full of young and impressionable young talent would be the right decision, even with Karlsson’s boosted production to start this season, his defensive impact is well below that of the average NHL defenceman.
From HockeyViz.com’s visual, the Sharks still give up a ton of quality chances in front of the net and on the right-hand side of the ice where Karlsson often defends.
Bringing in Karlsson would upgrade the right side, but it would not dramatically alter the high-event style that this team is playing. Make no mistake, it would be entertaining as hell, but if the goal is to produce a sustainable winner that can win in the postseason, the Senators will eventually need to learn how to defend and play a complete 200’ game.
Tying up more money, even at $5.5 million, in an aging defenceman does not make that much sense — especially when you factor in the opportunity cost that would be required to have San Jose part with him. The Senators could better use their money and assets to insulate their core beyond just improving the quality of their offence.
Prospective Ownership Groups Emerge
Elliotte Friedman indicated that details about prospective new owners/ownership groups would begin to emerge as we draw closer to American Thanksgiving and that held true.
Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch kicked around the names of a few prominent individuals and groups who have an interest in buying the Ottawa Senators.
At the top of the list is a combined effort of Michael Andlauer and Rocco Tulio. Both individuals reportedly attempted to purchase the team from the late Eugene Melnyk on their own, but they have now formed a partnership in an attempt to buy the team now. Andlauer is a Toronto billionaire who happens to be a minority owner of the Montreal Canadiens. He made his fortune through the Andlauer Healthcare Group — a healthcare product shipping company that transports products from the development phase to patients. Andlauer also owns the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs and has an estimated individual net worth of approximately $1.2 billion.
Like Andlauer, Tullio is the owner of another OHL franchise, the Oshawa Generals. Tullio also owns Rock Developments — a southwestern Ontario construction and land development company.
Garrioch also reports that Jeff York continues to kick tires on investors and has approached Claridge Homes’ Neil Malhotra about pursuing a local ownership group.
Andre Desmarais is also mentioned in the article as another prospective suitor who has partnered with the Toronto-based developers Michael and Jeffrey Kimel to purchase the team. Garrioch wrote that the Kimel brothers had previously reached out to Melnyk previously last December in an attempt to partner with him in the development of the LeBreton Flats property.
Toronto-based businessman Paul Rivett was mentioned as another candidate who was trying to put together a group of investors to purchase the team.
None of the groups mentioned by Garrioch were linked to Ryan Reynolds, but the actor has been at the forefront with his candor and expressed interest in partnering up with an investment group to purchase the Senators.
At this stage of the process, I don’t know how there can be a preferred individual or group. There are obvious advantages and disadvantages to each scenario. Maybe it is better to have the decision-making powers belong to one individual, it is certainly easier to lay the credit and blame at their feet when things go well or poorly. On the other hand, if the Eugene Melnyk experience taught us anything, the grass isn’t always greener with a billionaire owner. The organization’s stability depends not only on the volatility of the owner’s actions but on their own personal financial stability as well.
The flexibility in having a group of investors may be best in the sense that stakeholders can buy and sell the team as their own personal situation dictates, which may benefit the team from relying exclusively on the wealth of one individual. At the same time, getting consensus and direction from multiple owners can be more difficult to achieve.
Dusting Off the ‘Ring of Honour’
For the first time in five years, someone will have their work commemorated on the Senators’ ‘Ring of Honour’.
Former head coach and general manager Bryan Murray was the inaugural inductee on January 24, 2017, and on Monday, December 12th, Wade Redden will become the first player to be inducted the team announced.
Redden played 11 seasons with the Senators amassing 838 career games, 101 goals, and 410 points during that time. The Lloydminster native was a key fixture on a Senators blue line that was the foundation of the team’s success through the late 90s and early 2000s. Gord Wilson used to wax poetic about Wade Redden’s first pass, but the only thing more recognizable than his puck distribution skills were his charitable efforts off the ice. Redden launched ‘Wade’s World’ in 1997 to bring patients from CHEO to watch NHL games from a suite and it helped set a standard for ways in which future players could engage with the community in a positive and meaningful way.
It is a nice way to pay homage to Redden’s career with the organization and it is great that the Senators are finally using a mechanism to honour some employees or recognize important players who were not quite good enough to have their numbers retired.
That the organization is announcing this so soon after the news that Chris Neil’s jersey will be retired certainly invites the conversation that if Neil was important enough to have his jersey retired, so should Redden. In fact, the same argument could be extended to many players from that era — Marian Hossa, Mike Fisher, Jason Spezza, Alexei Yashin, Radek Bonk — who played prominent and extended roles during the team’s heyday.
There are plenty of arguments to be made in support of that, but is it a coincidence to see that the players being honoured are also the ones who are still employed by the organization?
Probably not. Scheduling the event on a Monday night against the lowly Anaheim Ducks fuels some cynicism about this event being used more to market tickets to a poor draw than it is about giving Redden recognition on a Saturday night against one of the franchise’s bigger rivals, but that was the marketing department’s call.
Regardless, it is still great to see Redden be recognized and if this induction allows the organization to look at other opportunities to recognize important individuals from this team’s past, that would be welcomed. Commemorating the efforts of the team’s founding fathers — Randy Sexton, Cyril Leeder, and Bruce Firestone — in a formal way is long overdue.
Tyson Jost Put on Waivers
Today it was announced that the Minnesota Wild had placed centre Tyson Jost on waivers.
The 24-year-old has only put up three lowly assists in 12 games while averaging 12:45 of ice time per game, but he could be an intriguing addition for the Senators.
Jost was the 10th overall selection in the 2016 NHL Draft. He is currently in the last year of a two-year contract that carries an average annual value of $2.0 million ($2.25 million in real dollars). His offensive numbers have suffered in recent years. His most productive season was his sophomore campaign in 2018-19 in which he scored 11 goals and 26 points. That was the last season in which he reached a double-digit total for goals.
Despite the modest offensive production, Jost has tended to put together some strong defensive seasons per HockeyViz.com.
With Josh Norris on the shelf there being no guarantee that he returns this season, Derick Brassard has largely benefited from his absence. Brassard has had a fine season given the circumstances, but at 35 years of age and with only one goal and an assist to his credit, he is not part of the long-term solution here.
As one of the league’s worst teams thus far, Ottawa has a relatively good chance of putting in a successful claim on Jost and it will only cost them money to take a look at what he can offer the team. As an impending restricted free agent, the Senators do not have to be committed to the player beyond this season. If Jost continues to struggle or simply is not a fit, the team can simply walk away from his rights by refusing to qualify the player in the offseason.
Jost’s presence could move Brassard to a fourth-line role where his presence could allow the team to relegate Parker Kelly or Austin Watson to the press box more often. Brassard could still log some special teams minutes in that role and a line of Kelly-Brassard-Kastelic is probably better than what they have been getting out of their fourth line lately.
Jost has historically never been a great faceoff presence, but even if or when Norris returns this season or next, perhaps there is some reality out there where Jost could slide to the wing. Tyler Motte is slated to hit unrestricted free agency this upcoming summer and there is no guarantee that Alex Formenton will ever play for the Senators again, Jost could theoretically insulate against that possibility. Mind you, as Ridly Greig continues to develop and produce in Belleville, this may not even be necessary.