In an unexpected piece of news, The Athletic’s Michael Russo announced that the Minnesota Wild were close to sending goaltender Cam Talbot to the Ottawa Senators.
Ian Mendes did not take long to share his belief that goaltending prospect Filip Gustavsson would likely be going the other way. Shortly thereafter, the Senators announced that the trade was a one-for-one deal involving Gustavsson.
In taking on the 35-year-old veteran goaltender, the Senators have solidified their goaltending situation at least for the short term. Talbot has one year left on his deal that carries a cap hit of $3.667 million. He will actually make less than that in terms of real dollars though. The real dollar value of his final year is just $3.0 million.
For a team with playoff aspirations and a real pressure to change the competitive fortunes of its team while its best young players are in their young 20’s and are relatively inexpensive, it is not a surprise to see the team bolster its goaltending situation.
After two wildly inconsistent and injury-plagued campaigns from Matt Murray, the Senators desperately need some reliability from their goaltenders. Filip Gustavsson showed promise as an amateur and then again for some small sample sizes across two seasons in Ottawa, but he was a victim of circumstance at times because of his contract and the presence of the two veterans ahead of him in the lineup.
When Gustavsson got into the lineup, he played inconsistently and often struggled in the net. It is not easy or fair for a young goaltender to play sporadically and then be expected to flourish behind a porous defensive unit, but those were the circumstances he was dealt with.
I do like Gustavsson and thought that when he was at his best, he demonstrated a nice blend of athleticism and technical ability. He just did not play enough or play well enough to earn the organization’s trust. It will be interesting to keep tabs on him in Minnesota where he should play behind a strong defensive team.
Why would Minnesota make this deal?
Thanks to the expensive buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, the Wild needed to create some cap space to give them the flexibility to make more additions to their roster. And after re-signing goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to a two-year deal, Talbot reportedly expressed his displeasure with the Wild brass a few days ago.
At this past weekend’s NHL Draft, Elliotte Friedman reported:
"Cam Talbot's representatives have met with (Wild general manager) Bill Guerin a couple times on the weekend, and Guerin has said publicly he wants to bring them both back. ... Talbot, he hasn't spoken yet, but the word is, he's definitely unhappy and the message has been conveyed.”
By making this deal, the Wild save almost $3.0 million in cap space. Gustavsson provides them with a young, cost-controlled goaltending asset with NHL experience. That Minnesota general manager Bill Guerin is quite familiar with Gustavsson also helps. Guerin was an assistant general manager in Pittsburgh when the Penguins drafted Gustavsson in the second round (55th overall) of the 2016 NHL Draft.
If playing behind the Wild’s defence can help Gustavsson fulfill some of the promise that he has exhibited at times during his career, it will be a good move for the Wild.
For the Senators, it provides them with some sorely needed stability.
In taking on Talbot’s $3.667 million cap hit, he obviously eats into the team’s budget for players. It remains to be seen how much money will be available once the restricted free agents are accounted for, but the team could shed salary further by moving veterans like Nikita Zaitsev or Connor Brown. The Senators are expected to be aggressive in free agency. Through moves like this and the Alex DeBrincat trade, management is certainly sending a message to its prospective targets that the organization is serious about making a push towards the postseason.
Senators fans should fondly recall Talbot’s post-game show of appreciation when Craig Anderson made his unforgettable return to the team on their western road after the announcement that his wife, Nicholle, had received a cancer diagnosis. Anderson made 37 saves in a 2-0 shutout victory and was named the game’s first star.
Talbot has been a reliable goaltender throughout his career. Using Evolving-Hockey.com’s five-on-five ‘Goals Saved Above Average’ (GSAA) metric, Talbot’s had a positive GSAA metric in six of his nine NHL seasons. During last season, Talbot’s GSAA was a 6.17.
GSAA is calculated by the league's average save percentage with the number of shots a goalie has had. The resulting number is the average goals a goalie in whatever league you're evaluating would've surrendered if they took the same number of shots as the goalie you're evaluating.
When it comes to a positive GSAA figure, the higher the number is, the better the goaltender has performed. GSAA essentially is the number of goals the goalie has saved compared to a league-average goaltender. Conversely, a negative GSAA figure would represent that the goalie is performing worse than a league average goalie would.
Interestingly, when it comes to ‘Goals Saved Above Expected’ (GSAx) Talbot has fared worse in recent years. GSAx is an actual advanced stat metric that is based on an expected goals model. The model values shots against differently than GSAA based on their quality. In other words, it is similar to GSAA in a sense but does not blindly assume that all goalies face equally difficult shots.
According to Evolving-Hockey’s GSAx model, Talbot’s had a negative five-on-five GSAx in each of the past four seasons including a -13.69 in 2021-22. Their database rates that as the fifth-worst rate in the league last season behind only Philipp Grubauer, Kevin Lankinen, Karel Vejmelka, and Mackenzie Blackwood.
That could easily be explained as part of an age-related decline, but the Senators are hoping that the veteran has more in the tank or at the very least can perform at a higher level than Gustavsson or whatever could be expected of one of the young goaltenders in Belleville.
Speaking of the goaltenders in Belleville, Ottawa’s willingness to move on from Gustavsson probably also reflects a significant vote of confidence in Mads Sogaard — a goaltender who is three years younger than Gustavsson.
In his first full professional season in North America, the 6’7” product of Denmark, recorded a 19-14-1 record, a 2.86 goals against average and a save percentage of .908.
Senators Poised to Make a Splash?
Following the Cam Talbot trade announcement, Chris Johnston appeared on TSN’s ‘Insider Trading’ segment and indicated that the Senators are not done and are expected to make a splash in free agency tomorrow.
“They’ve created cap space. They got rid of Matt Murray’s contract to Toronto. They made the decision to buy out Michael Del Zotto. Claude appears to be in their crosshairs. They’re definitely in a position to make an aggressive pitch for him. It’s something that Pierre LeBrun has discussed here in recent days and I still think they’re talking other trades too. Look for them to make a move for a defenceman.”
With all due respect to Eric O’Dell, tomorrow could go down as one of the most significant openings to free agency in franchise history and I can’t wait.
Following each Pierre Dorion move, I’m greedily wanting more. It’s a fun time to be a Senators fan and I’m already looking forward to what’s ahead.
I remember vividly the respect he showed the Andersons and I am excited for him to come in here and be part of us.