Senators Trade Nikita Zaitsev to Blackhawks
In an interesting move this evening, it was announced by Elliotte Friedman that the Ottawa Senators dealt right defenceman Nikita Zaitsev to the Chicago Blackhawks.
After his signing bonus was paid earlier in the offseason, today’s trade clears the prorated portion of Zaitsev’s $2.5 million off the books for this season and frees the Senators from paying the $4.5 million ($2.0 million signing bonus, $2.5 million base salary) owed to him in 2023-24 per CapFriendly.
So, what did the Senators give up?
According to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) and ‘goals above replacement’ (GAR) metrics, only seven defencemen offered less value than Zaitsev (-13.2 GAR, -2.4 WAR) over the last five seasons. Zaitsev was a horrifically bad defenceman, whose willingness to work hard, block shots, and engage in one-on-one battles endeared him to coaches. These characteristics created a blindspot in his supporters within the organization and because of it, his puck-moving and questionable decision-making skills were often ignored or downplayed — when they were so overwhelmingly bad that they greatly negated his positive contributions.
In flipping the draft picks and what should be a high second-round pick, the Senators paid a relatively steep price considering the team is six points out of a wild card spot, has four teams to jump and has less than a 10-percent chance of reaching the 2023 postseason.
That does not mean that many fans are not going to be celebrating today’s news. Like Cody Ceci and Jared Cowen before him, I understand why people are thrilled to see Zaitsev go. He was an overpaid defender who played more minutes and was entrusted with more responsibilities than his play deserved.
The organization should have been eager to rid itself of Zaitsev, but sometimes, the best thing for a team to do for its medium and long-term future is to just ride it out or dump the contract as unceremoniously as possible. In the cases of Ceci and Cowen, the Senators would have been better off exposing Ceci in the Vegas expansion draft or simply not qualifying him as a restricted free agent. In Cowen’s case, the team could have simply bought him out at one-third the value of the contract extension that he signed.
It feels good to finally be rid of an incompetent defender, but he is simply another player that the organization never should have acquired in the first place. As much as we can celebrate the fact that he is gone, another part should acknowledge that management’s player valuation and asset management is terrible and those involved need to be held accountable.
In the case of Zaitsev, it certainly would have been easier (and cheaper) to move him once his $2.0 million signing bonus is paid in July. In moving on from him now, the Senators have almost $5.0 million in projected cap space per CapFriendly. Without Zaitsev’s deal on the books next season, the Senators currently have 13 players on their roster earning just under $63 million in salary. That means the team has over $20 million in cap space to fill out the rest of its roster.
Without a future with the organization beyond the 2022-23 season, it should not come as a surprise to see general manager Pierre Dorion pull the trigger now. He has never been afraid to flip draft currency to get out from underneath his mistakes before. Earlier this season he dealt two draft picks to the Toronto Maple Leafs to get out from under the two years remaining on Matt Murray’s deal.
What may influence Dorion’s hand is his uncertain future with the organization. It is widely believed that Dorion is a lame duck who will quickly be replaced once new ownership takes over. If this is his last kick at the can with this roster, why would he care about draft capital and the long game when he can try and push for the organization’s short-term interests now?
The odds for the postseason may be long, but it’s fair to assume that clearing out Zaitsev’s salary is a precursor for allowing Dorion to make another deal for a defenceman. Thanks to the ongoing sale process, the Senators have been stuck in a holding pattern. They simply have not had the necessary financial backing of the board to take on significantly more salary — which necessitates the kind of money-in/money-out transactions that Dorion is permitted to make.
That the general manager is not done is equal parts exciting and terrifying.
When it comes to identifying and acquiring quality veteran defencemen in recent years, this regime’s track record is horrendous.
Artyom Zub has been the obvious exception to the rule, but Josh Brown, Michael Del Zotto, Erik Gudbranson, Travis Hamonic, Nikita Zaitsev, Johnny Oduya, and Ron Hainsey were widely panned as poor acquisitions.
Maybe this time will be different, but hot damn is it scary knowing that Dorion has one last move left up his sleeve that will throw more future assets out the window.
The Senators already have one of the more poorly rated farm systems in the NHL thanks to the graduation of many of its best prospects to the parent level in recent years, so it is a bit disconcerting to know that Ottawa could wind up throwing some combination of picks and prospects towards a short-term solution in a limited market.
Chris Johnston outlined some of the defencemen being held out of games in anticipation of a trade ahead of the March 3rd trade deadline.
It is pretty meh out there and there simply aren’t a ton of credible right defence options out there in this market. We can only hope that Dorion doesn’t compound today’s trade by throwing more assets and a significant opportunity cost away on another veteran defender who was poorly scouted and did not have his performance well vetted by those responsible for doing analytic evaluation and data analysis.