Senators Sign Vladimir Tarasenko

Last night the Senators announced the signing of unrestricted free agent Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year deal worth $5.0 million bringing his career full circle.

In one of the most lopsided trades in franchise history, the Senators traded the 16th overall selection of the 2010 NHL Draft to the St. Louis Blues for defensive prospect David Rundblad. At the time, Rundblad was a highly regarded prospect in Sweden who was the 17th overall selection the year before.

Rundblad failed to fulfill the lofty projections put on him. He played 113 games in parts of five NHL seasons and never really displayed the kind of offensive aptitude that was expected of him. In St. Louis, Tarasenko tallied 262 goals and 553 points in 644 games before being dealt to the New York Rangers last season.

Between the Pavol Demitra and Tarasenko trades, St. Louis needs to do the Senators a solid. Ah well, count your blessings that Logan Brown never panned out.

The signing of the four-time All-Star and 2019 Stanley Cup champion is going to get the city buzzing. He is a recognizable name and talent who is still a productive NHL player. In 69 games split between the Blues and Rangers last season, Tarasenko recorded 18 goals and 50 points. It is a far cry from the 30 to 40-goal and 60 to 75-point campaigns that he posted earlier in his career, but he was the best available offensive talent that remained on the market. And, after losing Alex DeBrincat in a trade with the division rival Red Wings, the Senators have bolstered some of their offence and spread out the scoring depth by signing Tarasenko.

The Senators had been linked to Tarasenko for the better part of the offseason. As I wrote earlier this summer, one of my biggest concerns regarding Tarasenko is that the Senators could overpay in money and term for past production. As a certified name chaser, general manager Pierre Dorion has never been able to stop himself from acquiring big names - even if the fit or the timing of the move given where the franchise was in its development curve was not right.

Giving Tarasenko a one-year term mitigates a lot of the risk that I was concerned with. Inking that one-year deal benefits everyone. It allows Tarasenko to bet on himself. There are far worse situations to find yourself in than playing with the young core that the Senators have assembled in their top six. If Tarasenko can be productive and can work towards rebuilding his value, a good season should allow him to cash in on free agency next summer when the salary cap ceiling increases. If more teams have money to spend, more suitors for his services should allow him to find a contract that was not available to him now.

The one-year term is beneficial to the Senators because it gives them the flexibility to re-enter the market next summer. If Tarasenko flames out, the team can either look to move him for assets at the trade deadline or they simply walk away from the player next summer. Tarasenko’s full no-trade clause will give the player full control over his next destination if the Senators fall out of the playoff race and have to move the player, but even if that limits the trade return, it is not the worst possible outcome here.

It is fair to assume that the $5.0 million price tag that the Senators paid was likely the largest offer on the table. It also puts the organization in a position in which they are $32,000 under the cap ceiling. They haven’t been this close to the cap in over a decade and yesterday’s signing will necessitate another trade to shed salary because the team still has to sign Shane Pinto to an extension.

As much as the addition of Tarasenko is important because it moves Kubalik down the lineup creating more scoring depth in an area where Ottawa did not get enough of it last season, that the Senators will have to trade away some depth to make the money work isn’t ideal. It likely necessitates moving a veteran depth option and with two years at $2.95 million left on his contract, Mathieu Joseph feels like the most likely candidate to move on. Considering how the quality of depth may be an issue, selling low on Joseph or even having to move futures out to facilitate a Joseph trade would be unfortunate. It may open the door to a prospect like Egor Sokolov cracking the parent roster, however.

The addition of Tarasenko’s offensive abilities will garner a lot of attention and deservedly so. It will be interesting to see how and where he fits on the roster. As a natural left shot, Tarasenko prefers to play his off-side. With Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson entrenched in those roles in Ottawa’s top-six, Tarasenko’s addition means that he will have to play his natural side or someone else will have to fill the spot vacated by Alex DeBrincat.

The question of fit is an interesting one and it will be one of the more intriguing training camp stories leading into the season. Will D.J. Smith use him on his natural side or will the coach have to move someone off their natural side to accommodate Tarasenko? With a one-year deal, should they even accommodate him or put him in a position where they feel the team will be the most efficient and have the most success? Considering how Tarasenko also plays Josh Norris’ spot on the power play, will Tarasenko play big power play minutes on the first unit? Or, could this be another fit situation where DeBrincat and Stützle enjoyed operating from the same spot and DeBrincat was relegated to the second power play unit to start the season?

There are a few concerns worth mentioning.

Tarasenko will turn 32 this December and after a brilliant start to his career, age and injuries may have taken their toll on Tarasenko’s overall effectiveness.

He no longer appears to be the finisher that he once was.

As HockeyViz’s data shows, he was a slightly below-average finisher at five-on-five last season.

The good news is that if you look at his impact on goal odds, Tarasenko’s still valuable as a playmaker at even strength. He is also exceptionally good at drawing penalties, which should be beneficial considering the talent Ottawa should be able to put on its power play units.

Where it gets murky is Tarasenko’s defensive value. As his offensive impact has waned through his entry into his early 30s, Tarasenko’s become a liability on the defensive side of the puck. Using Evolving-Hockey’s ‘DEF’ metric that places a value on a player’s total defensive contributions at even strength and while his team is shorthanded, Tarasenko’s 2022-23 season was by far the worst defensive season of his career (-5.9 DEF).

It is not just a one-year blip, however. Over the past two seasons, the opposition has feasted on their opponent whenever Tarasenko has been on the ice at even strength.

The Senators’ forward group is not exactly renowned for its defensive aptitude and their two biggest additions in Kubalik and Tarasenko are not going to bolster that weakness. At worst, they could exacerbate it.

One of the biggest challenges for D.J. Smith will be to get more out of his forwards in the defensive zone. Having a more efficient blue line that can move the puck effectively will help, but better puck support is going to be paramount to taking this group to a higher level. The organization cannot continue to exclusively rely on the individual skill of its youngest players.

If the Tarasenko signing goes south, it will be the result of an injury or an age-related decline in production. Like Mike Hoffman, Tarasenko’s defensive shortcomings could undermine whatever offensive value he contributes.

Knowing these strengths and weaknesses invites the conversation over whether the Senators could have reallocated Tarasenko’s money more efficiently to create a more balanced lineup. In that earlier article of mine that I referenced earlier, I mentioned Pius Suter and Tomas Tatar as two effective two-way players who should be of interest to the Senators.

Both players remain unsigned on the unrestricted free-agent market.

Admittedly, it is pretty easy to sit here and say the Senators should sign Player A or Player B. In reality, these two players may not be interested in coming to Ottawa in the slightest or perhaps their contract demands are out of whack with the Senators’ short and medium-term goals.

It would not garner the same headlines, but revisionist history is not needed to make a reasonable argument to be made that signing Suter and Tatar could make the Senators a more efficient two-way team.

Tarasenko may be worth the risk, however. If he can rediscover his scoring touch and help the Senators make a push for the playoffs, he will be celebrated. If he doesn’t, the team can flip him at the deadline and recoup some assets. Besides, this city has experienced being disappointed by a player wearing the number 91 before.