Senators Open Up Free Agency with a Series of Moves

Once the Senators traded Mark Kastelic and failed to submit qualifying offers to impending restricted free agents like Erik Brannstrom and Parker Kelly, it felt like the organization had a plan in place to rebuild this roster’s depth.

That plan was revealed this afternoon with the opening of unrestricted free agency.

The Senators were active, making several commitments to David Perron, Noah Gregor and Michael Amadio. They also swung a deal sending Jakob Chychrun to the Washington Capitals for Nick Jensen and a 2026 third-round pick.

On the surface, it was not the splashiest of days. A recurring theme of the new regime has been to wax poetic about a need for veteran players. Not just older players, but quality ones who can play and still have mileage left in the tank. Ones who can properly support the Senators’ young core and imbue this group with a culture emphasizing the benefits of playing a 200’ game.

Perron signed a two-year contract carrying an average annual value of $4 million. The 36-year-old winger, who shoots right but prefers to play his off-side, joins the Senators coming off a season in which he produced 17 goals and 47 points in 76 games. As I joked on Twitter, I’ll never forgive Perron (and Dylan Larkin) for pumping up Dominik Kubalik’s numbers right before the Senators acquired him last summer. Others have pointed out the history created when Perron mistakenly jumped Artem Zub after Larkin was concussed in a game last December.

Perron has some smoothing over to do, but he is a beloved teammate, won a Stanley Cup in 2019, and possesses the intangibles that teams love.

The risk is that the Senators are committing a lot of money to a relatively old player who is on the downside of his career. Perron’s five-on-five goal rate (0.86 G/60) has slid for a second consecutive season and has not been this low since the 2017-18 season. His points-per-60 rate has also trended down for a third straight year.

His isolated impacts have also noticeably trailed off, as well per HockeyViz.

The offensive and defensive impacts were just not there relative to his career norms.

In trading Jakob Chychrun for Nick Jensen, the Senators restored balance to their top-four. The trade was a sobering reminder of the risks the organization inherited and how another massive swing blew up in the organization’s face. Trading a top-12 pick and two second-rounders for a year of Chychrun and now Nick Jensen helps explain why the Senators have spun their tires. This failure to create mid or long-term value from incredibly valuable futures has stalled this franchise.

Chychrun was a sunk cost, so there is no use complaining about that anymore, but the organization moved him for a 33-year-old right defenceman who is coming off one of the worst years of his career.

Between the 2017-18 season and the 2022-23 one, Jensen was a very good and unheralded defensive defencemen.

HockeyViz’s data portrayed Jensen very favourably and his impacts on the defensive side of the puck, were very noticeable.

Not only was last season his least impactful season from an underlying numbers perspective, but it represented his least impactful season on the surface too.

In 78 games for the Capitals last season, Jensen scored one goal and added 13 assists.

The good news is that both Jensen and Perron are just one year removed from being good players. The Senators paid a handsome price to acquire both players, but the organization has to hope that these respective down years are blips and not part of some larger age-related decline. If both Perron and Jensen can play at their 2022-23 levels, the Senators will come out of these moves looking quite well.

If they don’t, the Senators could look foolish for investing significant money and assets to acquire two aging players coming off down years where they were on the wrong side of the expected goal outcomes.

Another item worth mentioning is how Chychrun was reportedly offered around the league for draft picks. Today’s trade represents a significant departure from that strategy. Ideally, the Senators would have been able to add a right-shot defenceman through free agency while moving Chychrun for futures and effectively bolstering the farm system and right defence. Today’s events reflect that the right-shot defencemen the Senators targeted were unrealistic. They either did not want to come to Ottawa, or the Senators were uncomfortable or ill-equipped to provide players like Chris Tanev or Matt Roy with the money and terms they received. When those players were off the market, the Senators pivoted to Jensen and it cost them a valuable and younger asset in Chychrun.

Noah Gregor signed a one-year deal worth $850,000.

Gregor is the archetype of fourth line depth. He does not do a ton of things particular well at even strength, but he has demonstrated that he can be a valuable penalty killer.

The Senators also brought back legend Michael Amadio back into the fold. The winger signed a three-year contract worth an average annual value of $2.6 million.

That number may startle fans who recall Amadio from the cup of coffee he got with the Senators down the stretch of the 2020-21 season. Since that time, however, Amadio has proven he can be a reliable depth contributor on some pretty talented Vegas teams.

Amadio has averaged 15 goals and 27 points per season over the last two years in Vegas. Most recently, he scored 14 goals and 27 points in 73 games last season.

He has provided decent defensive depth while demonstrating some strong finishing ability. If there are two things the Senators’ depth needs, it is more goal production and defensive aptitude. His resume is also highlighted by Vegas’ 2023 Stanley Cup victory.

Today’s moves brought the Senators’ roster to 19 players carrying a cap hit of approximately $83.6 million - leaving the organization with approximately $4.4 million to get Shane Pinto signed.

Speaking of Pinto, Pierre LeBrun reported this morning that talks between the Senators and the centre had stalled.

Until Pinto formally requests a trade through a reliable source, it is hard to get too worked up over what is likely a leak by the agent attempting to create leverage for his client — a player who has failed to produce more than 35 points in a season and is coming off one of the largest suspensions in NHL history for gambling. His representative, Lewis Gross, has a penchant for negotiating through the media to influence outcomes, so it is hard to invest too much in what is being reported right now.

It probably does not help that Pierre Dorion gave away long-term extensions to every drafted player, but with a new regime, they are making their mark. I certainly do not blame Pinto for wanting similar treatment while the new regime digs in trying to get the best value they can.

Hopefully, a compromise is reached where the Senators give Pinto fair value now in hopes that he will be underpaid a few years from now when he and his team are better. If it means paying him more than the $4.4 million that they have in cap space, it would hardly be a surprise to see Mathieu Joseph be moved to accommodate it.

Joseph’s name has been in the rumour mill for weeks and it is hard to ignore the fact that the organization brought in several players today who can play the left wing. If the Senators can move out Joseph’s $2.95 million cap hit and use the remaining money to sign Pinto and address their third-pairing right defence situation, that is a win.