When afforded the time on game days, I listen to the pregame show on TSN 1200. There is something to be said for supporting local programming, but it is often a great source to help brainstorm ideas and create discussion points to base future articles on.
Following a quiet break without a ton of information, Darren Dreger joined Wednesday’s pregame broadcast to share insights on what’s going on with the Senators.
Of particular interest was a response he had to a question about trade activity. When asked what he believed the Senators might do to add to their lineup, he answered with the following:
“Yeah, it’s a good question because they’ve got so many good pieces there. You have to accept the obvious. Shane Pinto, he’ll come back into the fray here at some point and then they’ve got to get him signed to a contract. That’ll be a pretty big add. Even though he’s going to step in cold, they’re more or less weak up the middle of the ice beyond what we see on the top two lines. So, you’ve got Pinto coming back which will feel like a big trade. Again, let’s just qualify, he can’t be as good as he would be if he was up to the NHL calibre in terms of pace and whatnot.”
One of the things about Dreger and hockey analysts at the major networks is that they are often tasked with the impossible. Having informed opinions and in-depth insights into every NHL club (heck, even every Canadian club) or player is incredibly challenging. There are only so many hours in the day, so when Dreger says, “(The Senators) are more or less weak up the middle of the ice beyond what we see on the top two lines”, it is a bit of a discredit to what Ridly Greig’s done this season while healthy.
Through 20 games, Greig has scored four goals and added six assists. Of the rookies who have played more than 200 five-on-five minutes per NaturalStatTrick, he’s the 10th-most productive rookie forward at 2.11 points per 60 minutes. On the Senators, that points rate ranks as the seventh highest. Greig’s five-on-five goals per 60 (0.53) rates ahead of Tim Stützle’s 0.51. Evolving-Hockey’s ‘goals above replacement’ (GAR) and ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) value metrics rate Greig as the fourth-most valuable player on the team - despite the rookie only playing in two-thirds of the games. From a defensive value perspective, he’s arguably been the team’s second-best defensive forward behind Mathieu Joseph.
Like most young players, Greig has struggled in the faceoff circle (39.1%), but there is no discernible weakness at the 3C position. The Senators will unquestionably benefit from Shane Pinto’s return. Last season, he scored 20 goals and was arguably the team’s best defensive forward while winning 52.1 percent of his draws.
If Pinto draws into the lineup and pushes Greig to the left wing where his physicality and forechecking prowess work well, the Senators could have the making of a greasy and hardworking third line. Considering how Greig has one of the team’s highest assist rates on the team this season, Pinto’s strength as a finisher could complement him well offensively.
Where Dreger carries value as an analyst is that he is a trader of information. Although specific player or team analysis might not necessarily be more accurate than what the local journalists or scribes can offer, when Dreger speaks with every front office, there is a good chance that there is a hint of truth to what he says when identifying trade avenues for a club.
In Ottawa’s case, he believes they are looking to add to their blue line.
“I think they’d like to bolster their blue line a little bit. Some of that has to do with the unfortunate situation that (Thomas) Chabot has gone through with injury and all of that. So, if they could add a penalty killer – which they’ll get in Pinto – and maybe bolster that blue line, now maybe that’s enough. But, I would have said that a month ago, to be fair. Now you’re in a different predicament because you’re a non-playoff team. Maybe you’ll take a greater stock of what this team needs moving forward or you come to a place with certain individual players that, alright, you’re willing to consider moving those players providing the return is good enough. Those are the end roads. For this team to get back, get competitive again and get into a place where we look to next year and you believe they’re a playoff team again, well, maybe you’ll add sets of pieces that are going to come at a cost. They just don’t know that yet because they don’t have a full read of what’s available or what they’re willing to part with yet.”
With a blue line that currently features Jacob Bernard-Docker and Travis Hamonic, I wouldn’t blame the Senators for trying to improve their defensive corps. It is the most obvious weakness on the roster.
Using Evolving-Hockey, of the 13 pairings who have played 30-plus five-on-five minutes, one of Travis Hamonic or Jacob Bernard-Docker played on one of the team’s seven worst defensive pairings in terms of the percentage of expected goals for.
Once Thomas Chabot returns to the top four, it will take some pressure off the group. The most obvious need is a large defenceman who can play, but when one of Bernard-Docker or Hamonic is relegated to the press box, it will help the collective. Mind you, the numbers Erik Brannstrom has posted with these two have been anemic.
If the Senators can find a way to upgrade whichever right defenceman starts on the third pairing, it will go a long way to bolstering the entire group.
Other News and Notes:
The Swift Current Broncos announced yesterday that former Senator Zack Smith would be joining their staff as an assistant coach.
I was digging through Evolving-Hockey’s data, and in terms of value, the league’s second-most valuable defenceman was Jakob Chychrun.
During Jacques Martin’s pregame media availability, he reflected on the quality of the goaltenders (via Claire Hanna):
"I explained to them that I feel a lot of times the goalie is an end product of how you play in front of them, away from the puck. I don't think over the years - this is one area of this team that has got a lot of talent and skill, but I don’t think they’ve been very effective, they’re leaving their goalie dry if you ask me."
Martin added: "Goaltenders like Talbot, he’s a good example. Didn’t have a great year here, goes to LA and he’s one of the top in league."
"They’re (Korpisalo and Forsberg) good goalies, they’re in the NHL for a reason and it’s our job as coaches to get the team in front of them, cut down on the number of A chances from the slot to try to give more shots from the outside so they have a better chance of making saves."Cam Talbot has blamed a lot of last season’s inconsistencies on an injury, but full marks to Martin for impressing upon his players the need to be better in front of the goaltenders.
Joonas Korpisalo will get the start tonight against the New Jersey Devils.
Tyler Boucher, the Senators’ 10th overall selection from the 2021 NHL Draft, is finally playing for the Belleville Senators. He scored his first professional goal a week ago against the Marlies. It’s an encouraging start to his pro career and considering the adversity he’s gone through in the last few years, it’d be nice to see him enjoy and build on some early success.
My gut tells me that both Dreiger and Garrioch are speculating when they imply they have inside dope on potential Sens deals. All indications are that Staios runs a tight ship with few if any leaks. When Garrioch says Sens want to deal Kubalik and are "taking calls" -- he's stating the obvious on the former, and likely doing a solid with the latter comment in hopes of a future scoop. Who would call for Kubalik unless it was in hopes of a sweetener coming their way? As for Dreiger, it's hardly a great leap to say Sens would like to add a d-man. It SOUNDS to the viewers and TSN management that Staios has whispered something to him, but really -- this is a vanilla speculation where you can't be wrong. EVERYONE would like to add a good d-man!