Senators Lock Up Jake Sanderson to an 8-Year Extension

Nothing like some Wednesday night news in early September to get the interwebs buzzing. The Senators unexpectedly announced that they have signed prized defenceman Jake Sanderson to an eight-year contract worth $64.4 million that carries an average annual value of $8.05 million.

CapFriendly lists the parameters of his contract and it is pretty straightforward. Sanderson will simply carry a base salary of $8.05 million through the duration of his contract which means that management’s philosophy on signing bonuses wins out again. Pierre Dorion simply refuses to give them out.

It is a tidy piece of business getting a Sanderson extension done. The term and value will assuredly raise the collective eyebrows of fans around the NHL who do not have a chance to watch the Senators regularly.

Sanderson is in the last year of his entry-level contract and he only has one season under his belt, so it is understandable why some would question the timing of the extension. It is not often that an organization commits this kind of money and term to a player after one year. And, in fairness to the critics of this deal, the numbers on the back of Sanderson’s hockey card do not immediately leap off the page.

Everyone in Ottawa recognizes Sanderson’s value, however. It just took some time to get there.

When the Senators selected Sanderson with the fifth overall pick in 2020, it spurred a lot of debate. Was he the best available defenceman? Should the organization have targeted a highly skilled forward?

Sanderson’s rookie campaign erased any concerns about his selection. He contributed four goals and 32 points in 77 games last season. Only Owen Power recorded more points as a rookie defenceman.

What those offensive totals do not tell you is that Sanderson thrived on the defensive side of the puck.

HockeyViz’s data portrayed Sanderson’s isolated defensive impact as being pretty significant.

His elite skating ability, gap control and active stick made life frustrating for attacking forwards. And, as he continues to mature, get stronger and gain more in-game experience, he will only continue to get better.

In my player profile write-up for Sanderson as part of my Senators coverage in McKeen Hockey’s 2023-24 annual that you can order here, I joked that the “most flattering thing that you can say about Sanderson’s play last season is that he helped land veteran Travis Hamonic a new two-year contract.”

The pair logged over 700 minutes of five-on-five ice time together and the results were average. When they were on the ice, the Senators generated as many shots and expected goals as the opposition (50.5 CF%, 49.5 xGF%) per Evolving-Hockey. They did however give up a greater percentage of actual goals (42.9 GF%), but that can be attributed in part to bad luck.

The expectation heading into 2023-24 is that Thomas Chabot will open the year playing alongside Jake Chychrun while Sanderson is expected to play with Artem Zub this season. This is an important development because Zub has historically been Ottawa’s most reliable defender over the past three seasons.

Using Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Total Defence’ (DEF) statistic which essentially attempts to place a single value on a player’s defensive impact by combining a player’s even strength and shorthanded defensive contributions, only 13 defencemen have accumulated a higher DEF rating over the last three seasons than Zub.

This aptitude certainly helped in the minutes that they played together last season. In 239 five-on-five minutes, the Senators generated more of the shots (52.7 SF%) and expected goals (53.3 xGF%) — both of which represent improvements on the numbers posted when Sanderson and Hamonic were on together. Most impressively, the team suppressed a lot more shots when this pairing was together. Put in contrast with the Sanderson/Hamonic pairing which allowed 33.6 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five, the Sanderson/Zub pairing allowed 24.9.

If you are looking at reasons to get excited about Sanderson’s trajectory, the pedigree and defensive talent are already there and now he is expected to play exclusively with a more talented partner. Add all these considerations together and it becomes pretty easy to project Sanderson as a player who is on the cusp of taking a marked leap forward. And, if he does or the offence finds another level, it is possible that an extension would have commanded an even higher average annual value.

For kicks, I looked up how many defencemen put up 50 or more points last season. Maybe that is an optimistic point projection for Sanderson next season, but with his puck-moving ability and perhaps some greater power play responsibility in time, there is a chance he could reach that level soon enough. Anyways, 20 defencemen reached that point threshold last season and after identifying them, I looked at what their AAVs were. The average AAV of these defencemen was $7.7 million. It is pretty much on par with what Sanderson will earn, but as inflation pushes the market higher, Sanderson’s extension has a very, very good chance of aging well — especially because he can defend.

It is vital to lock up another key piece of the young core. Although the Senators are pressed up against the cap ceiling this year, the team is going to see dividends down the road the cap ceiling continues to escalate and this team’s best players are all earning between $7.0 to $8.0 million. Theoretically, the contracts belonging to the young core should afford the organization a ton of cap flexibility down the road.

Now if only Shane Pinto could land an extension of his own.