Senators Acquire Travis Hamonic & Trade Nick Paul on Eve of Deadline
As the Senators approached the trade deadline, the writing was on the wall that Nick Paul was heading out the door.
After stalled negotiations created an impasse in which neither side really wanted to budge off their final offer, the Senators sent Paul to the defending Stanley Cup Champions for Mathieu Joseph and a 2024 fourth-round pick.
What was not expected was for the Senators to trade a third-round pick to the Vancouver Canucks for defenceman Travis Hamonic.
The 31-year old right-shot defender has only played in 24 games this season because of his feelings on the Covid vaccinations. Hamonic would eventually get both of his vaccination shots by the end of November, but it cost him a number of games.
In the 24 games that he has played, he has registered three goals and seven points. Averaging 18:22 of ice-time per game, Hamonic ranked fourth amongst all Canucks defencemen in average ice-time. According to NaturalStatTrick, Hamonic’s two most regular partners this season have been Brad Hunt and Quinn Hughes — the latter in particular’s numbers have been significantly better when he’s played away from Hamonic.
The underlying shot and goal metrics were not particularly favourable for Hamonic. Although the Canucks produced 51.85 percent of the total goals at five-on-five when Hamonic was on the ice, they were outshot (47.84 CF%, 47.33 SF%) and generated an expected goal rate of 47.07 percent. If not for the play of the Canucks’ goaltenders behind him and their 93.72 save percentage, Hamonic’s +1 plus/minus rating on the season would be significantly worse.
HockeyViz.com’s visual of Hamonic’s career is not particularly flattering.
At five-on-five, his team spends most of its time defending within its own end and subsequently generates very little offence. There have been some years in which he has had a positive defensive impact on his team’s expected goals rate, but over the past two seasons, his expected goals against rate is higher than the league average. And as an aging player who is about to step into a rebuild, the likelihood of him being able to buck that trend is going to be difficult.
Hamonic is in the first year of a two-year contract extension carrying an average annual value of $3.0 million. He signed this deal under former Canuck general manager Jim Benning last July. The Senators will pay the prorated $2.75 million salary for the rest of the 2021-22 season before Hamonic earns $3.25 million in total salary next season — a base salary of $2.0 million and a signing bonus of $1.25 million.
Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch broke down Ottawa’s rationale for pulling the trigger on the move.
"The Senators are hopeful Hamonic can play in their top four and there’s a sense he may a be a good candidate to play with top prospect Jake Sanderson, who is expected to leave the University of North Dakota next month to sign here."
Hamonic played under assistant coach Jack Capuano in New York, so like many of Ottawa’s other acquisitions, there is a degree of familiarity there. (Maybe now we know why Capuano wasn’t allowed to interview for the Buffalo Sabres’ head coaching position last summer. He’s pulling double-duty as a scout for the Senators.)
Ironically, the third-round pick that the Canucks acquired originally belonged to them. They moved it to Vegas in a deal that brought them Nate Schmidt. The Golden Knights would eventually move the pick to Ottawa in the Evgenii Dadonov trade. Shortly after acquiring this third-rounder, Vancouver flipped it to Toronto in exchange for defenceman Travis Dermott.
It is never really a good look for the Senators when their trade partner, a team vying for a late-season playoff push, is unceremoniously dumping a veteran to use the return to acquire a cheaper defenceman (Travis Dermott) who they believe gives them a better opportunity to win.
It certainly does not look great when former players like Marc Methot are using their contacts and resources to throw things like this out in the public sphere.
Nor does it look great when the player’s agent, expresses his client’s disappointment to learn he was being traded.
And it certainly does not look when Vancouver media types are already declaring the Hamonic deals as one of the organization’s best trades of the last 10 years.
Maybe there is a chance that the Hamonic deal works out for the Senators and he plays at a level that he has not shown over the past few years. Or, maybe he is just the latest product of a player valuation system that overemphasizes size and the opinions of a coaching staff that has direct ties to a player.
Considering how many of those similar kinds of referrals have ended poorly, it’s staggering that the Senators’ management group would continue to hold these opinions in such high regard, but here we are. The organization will miss the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season and it appears that the mistakes that have hamstrung this organization’s development over the past few years continue to be made.
It is a frustrating time to be a Senators fan because you want to see progress being made. After the easy part of the rebuild was done and pieces were auctioned off to the highest bidders, the onus is on management to deftly identify talent and allocate its limited resources efficiently. The Senators certainly have not done that and this trade simply reinforces the belief that management is incapable of insulating this young core.
And even if we take the actual judgment of the trade completely out of the equation, why the Senators felt compelled to make this trade now is open to criticism. Why not wait until the offseason to see what other kinds of pieces become available before throwing draft picks around like they are chips at a casino? What necessitated having to acquire Travis Hamonic now when draft capital could be better used in the offseason?
It is simply staggering how many trades the Senators have made that have sent out draft picks in exchange for replacement or sub-replacement level talent. Although they have not crippled the organization, this willingness to waste assets is negligent. And worse, no one is ever held accountable. It’s like fans are caught in this perpetual state of learned helplessness where: 1) Dorion’s mishandlings are excused because he works for the owner; or 2) people say that because no one can change ownership, there’s no other choice but to support the team for what it is.
Starting the 2022-23 season with a right side that includes Nikita Zaitsev, Artyom Zub (who’s on an expiring deal that takes him to unrestricted free agency) and Travis Hamonic, isn’t good. It simply reinforces the belief that the Senators have an anachronistic view of player valuations and because of it, they struggle to mitigate their mistakes — mistakes that have the potential to undermine the invested time and good the organization has done in recent years.
Senators Trade Nick Paul to Tampa
Earlier I wrote briefly about Ottawa’s second move of the day. The Senators dealt Nick Paul to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Mathieu Joseph and a 2024 fourth-round pick.
As an impending unrestricted free agent, Paul and the organization were at odds in regards to how much he was worth.
I expected Paul to fetch the Senators a draft pick that they could use to select a player or flip in a separate deal to hopefully land a more talented player.
What the Senators ultimately did however was replace Paul with Joseph. Although the two players have entirely different skillsets, there are some similarities in their baseline numbers.
In 59 games for the Senators, Paul had 11 goals and 18 points while averaging 17:22 of ice-time per game. Mathieu Joseph contributed eight goals and 18 points for the Lightning while playing an average of 13:42 of ice-time. According to Evolving-Hockey’s data, their five-on-five goal rates are pretty similar. Joseph is generating 0.60 goals per 60 at five-on-five while Paul is sitting at 0.64. On the strength of generating a higher rate of primary assists, Joseph’s points per 60 rate is higher (1.36 to Paul’s 1.05).
Both players are effective penalty killers, but stylistically, they are different. Joseph is a burner who relies on his speed and tenacity to create turnovers on the forecheck or create chances off the rush. Joseph’s historically been the more efficient shooter. This season, he’s shooting 11.94 percent at five-on-five, but he’s someone who doesn’t generate a ton of shots — which would lead me to believe that because of his skill set, a higher proportion of his shots are generated off the rush.
Whereas, Nick Paul is more of a volume shooter. He is averaging 7.67 five-on-five shots on goal per 60 (iSF/60), which is approximately 2.5 more shots than Joseph averages. In terms of individual shots directed at the net (iCF/60), Paul’s numbers almost double Josephs (14.05 to 8.53). Not surprisingly, the expected goals rate favours Paul.
Here is how JFresh Hockey’s hockey visuals portray Paul and Joseph:
Paul is the stronger defender, but if you’re an Ottawa fan, it’s easy to get excited about how dangerous the penalty kill can be when it can roll units featuring Formenton and Joseph.
The Lightning targeted Paul specifically because they believe his game is better tailored for the postseason.
Tampa general manager Julien BriseBois told The Athletic’s Joe Smith, “We felt we could use more size, physicality from our forward group. Nick’s game is molded for playoff hockey.”
Obviously, money, specific team needs and future earnings played a part in the decision, but it will always feel a little disconcerting when a well-run franchise like the Lightning target Paul specifically and are willing to give up a roster piece to make their team better. Like it or not, it’s certainly a topic of conversation that Paul was viewed as a good piece to add to a Cup contender, but priced himself out of Ottawa.
Going back to the Joe Smith article, he had some more interesting details on why the Lightning felt the need to move on from Joseph.
“But as much as Joseph had disruptive speed and was a key part of the penalty kill, he had questionable decision-making at times with the puck, which I could see as something the coaches might be concerned about in a playoff-type situation. Joseph was also scheduled to be an RFA with arbitration rights this summer, which BriseBois admitted would have been an issue for Tampa Bay. BriseBois said there was a chance they wouldn’t have tendered Joseph an offer, so essentially it was a pending UFA for pending UFA. It didn’t make it any easier for BriseBois to inform Joseph of the deal on Sunday.”
Like the Hamonic deal, the Senators obviously felt that a bird in one hand was better than two in the bush. So, although Joseph may have priced himself out of Tampa this offseason and was at serious risk of not being qualified as a free agent like Anthony Duclair was in 2020, Ottawa wanted to bring him into the fold now. Without knowing what kind of offers were on the table, it’s hard to weigh this return against any prospective deal. Perhaps it would have been in Ottawa’s best long-term interests to get a higher draft pick that they could flip or use, but perhaps Joseph develops into a valuable bottom-six depth player in Ottawa.
Whether Joseph’s an upgrade or not remains to be seen, but he brings the kind of cost and team control that the Senators were so obviously afraid to extend to Paul on his next contract.
Other News and Notes:
According to that aforementioned Garrioch article, some unnamed NHL executives have confirmed that Colin White’s “in play.” If the Senators can move him, it would obviously save them from having to buy out the remainder of his contract at one-third the cost.
Ian Mendes had a nice Nick Paul story featuring some of his teammates’ reflections on Paul’s contributions on and off the ice.
Mathieu Joseph has some familiarity with the Senators. He was a former teammate of Thomas Chabot in Saint John.