Report: Senators Interested in Arthur Kaliyev
As the trade rumours continue to swirl and grow, Senators fans patiently await the first transaction of the Steve Staios era.
A defining characteristic of the first few months under the Senators’ new general manager has been his preference to keep his motives and moves in the dark. Unlike the previous regime that often used the media to leak information and help control narratives, spur market interest, or even potentially evaluate and gauge this market’s feedback on moves before they were made, Staios tends to play things close to the vest.
No one reported on the prospective additions of Dave Poulin or Jacques Martin to the organization, but the team has not made a personnel move since Staios has taken over.
An intriguing development is that the organization is now tied to specific player rumours. It started last Saturday with Chris Tanev, and now the Senators have been linked to Los Angeles Kings winger Arthur Kaliyev.
In his latest ‘32 Thoughts Podcast’, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman believed that the Kings could be willing to move the winger if they can acquire a replacement that brings a more physical and edgy dynamic.
Over the past two seasons, Kaliyev has tallied 27 goals and 56 points in 136 games. This season, however, the winger has struggled to produce results. He has frequently been a healthy scratch this month and has compiled just six goals and 14 points in 38 games this season.
The link between the Senators and Kaliyev has existed since the 2019 NHL Draft. The Senators owned the first pick of the second round that year and used it to take centre Shane Pinto 32nd overall. With the next pick, the Los Angeles Kings took Kaliyev, who many amateur prognosticators believed the Senators should have taken for his skill and goal-scoring ability.
Nick Kypreos, who writes the occasional article for the Glove & Mail, reported that “there are a handful of teams interested including the Flames and the Senators.”
Why would the Senators be interested in Kaliyev?
For two reasons: 1) his natural offensive talent; and 2) Kaliyev played junior hockey for Andlauer and Staios’ Hamilton Bulldogs.
Under Michael Andlauer, it is clear that he and his staff are comfortable bringing in people they are familiar with, trust and have loyalty towards. It has not extended to player personnel decisions yet, but it could.
Despite the lack of production, Kaliyev’s underlying offensive numbers are pretty strong.
He has generated rates of 0.42 goals and 1.39 points per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time. That production ranks him ninth and twelfth among regulars on the Kings per NaturalStatTrick. The intrigue with Kaliyev lies in his individual expected goal rate (ixG/60). His 0.94 ixG/60 rate is the third-highest rate on the team.
HockeyViz also portrays Kaliyev’s offensive isolated impact as being pretty significant.
The problem with Kaliyev is that while he is getting chances, he simply is not burying them. Historically, he has never been a strong five-on-five shooter. He has shot 5.37 and 5.88 percent at five-on-five in his last two seasons, but that number has dipped to 4.69 in 2023-24.
HockeyViz’s shooting history data portrays that Kaliyev’s observed results do not match his expected production.
If the Senators believe there is a chance that they could unlock his offensive talent, I could understand them having an interest in Kaliyev — especially if there is an opportunity to buy low and see what he can do in the second half of the season in a new environment.
Dominik Kubalik and Vladimir Tarasenko have expiring deals at the end of the season, so it makes sense for the Senators to kick tires on Kaliyev’s availability. At the same time, management has stressed the need to balance the roster and add more 200-foot players. Neither Kubalik nor Tarasenko are renowned for their defensive play — which leads one to believe that if the Senators are to move on, these are the likely spots in the lineup where the organization would like to add better two-way players.
Replacing either of these guys with a Kaliyev could make sense from the perspective that Ottawa would be banking on a player that they are familiar with finding another level in another organization.
The wrinkle with Kaliyev is the same as it is with Tarasenko and Kubalik. His defensive acumen simply is not where it needs to be for his coaches to entrust him with the minutes and responsibilities of a top-six forward.
The Los Angeles Kings are not a stupid organization. They have invested heavily in their player development and analytics departments. If Todd McLellan and his staff do not believe in Kaliyev’s defensive acumen or his attention to the details, is that the right fit for what the Senators are trying to create right now? Or would his addition simply exacerbate the defensive problems that the Senators are finally just starting to curb?
Senators Waive Rourke Chartier
In a somewhat surprising piece of news, the Senators have waived Rourke Chartier.
The offensive numbers were never impressive. The depth centre only had two goals and three points in 34 games this season. But, for a while, it seemed like the centre was comfortably in the Senators’ good graces for his hard work and defensive play. He appeared to be a favourite of D.J. Smith’s and always seemed to be in the lineup when he was healthy.
Playing on a bad defensive club, his defensive impact seemed strong.
Unfortunately for Chartier, his placement on waivers likely has to do with some salary cap management.
The Senators presently have $12,836 in cap space and with one game left on the schedule for the All-Star break, the team likely wants to adjust their roster accordingly to ensure that some players are getting reps in Belleville.
One theory that makes sense is the one that TSN 1200’s Steve Lloyd put forth on ‘X’.
I don’t believe Forsberg is close to a return, so this feels like a lot of paper and cap gymnastics just to get Sogaard some playing time on the farm — especially since an alternative could simply be to promote whichever AHL goaltender is likely to lose playing time to Sogaard.
Whatever the case, I don’t believe Chartier’s at risk of being claimed. Even if he was, he’s just a placeholder anyway without a long-term future with the club. The Senators could simply slide Mark Kastelic back to the centre position and adjust accordingly.
Other News and Notes:
Along with Alex Formenton, the four NHLers (Carter Hart, Dillon Dube, Cal Foote and Michael McLeod) from the 2018 Canadian World Junior team who recently took leave of absences from their teams have all acknowledged through their legal representatives that they have been charged with one account of sexual assault. The London Police will share more information at a press conference Monday, February 5th.
Oskar Petterson, the Senators’ third-round pick (72nd overall) from the 2022 NHL Draft has left Sweden to join the Belleville Senators. He is expected to make his North American professional debut this weekend. Petterson and the Senators’ organization arrived at the decision to leave Rögle BK of the Swedish Hockey League because his development was being stunted. After having some solid seasons with Rögle BK’s J20 affiliate, he has struggled to produce in limited minutes this season. In 26 SHL games, Petterson has one lowly assist to his credit.