After Pierre Dorion outlined all the avenues the Senators could explore with Alex DeBrincat’s next contract, part of me was hoping this talk of taking the player to arbitration and reports of DeBrincat’s camp wanting to wait for new ownership to arrive were simply cases of posturing by both parties.
Well, apparently that was wishful thinking.
Today The Athletic’s and TSN insider Pierre LeBrun indicated on last night’s ‘Insider Trading’ segment that DeBrincat’s camp has given the Senators a list of preferred destinations to trade their client to.
“I don’t think you can say (a trade is a) certainty but it’s certainly more likely than not. What has happened here is that Alex DeBrincat’s camp led by Jeff Jackson has submitted a list of preferred destinations – teams that his client would be interested in joining. And, the reason that is significant is, of course, if Pierre Dorion does trade Alex DeBrincat, he would want him to be signed through this trade so he gets maximum value back in return. Think of the Matthew Tkachuk deal from Calgary to Florida last year, so I don’t know who exactly is on that list, but the list has been submitted.”
It is a straight punch to the gut.
How this situation is playing out is going to inevitably draw a ton of comparisons to the Matt Duchene trade and for good reason. There are certainly some similarities, but what stands in stark contrast is just how fundamentally different the stages of this franchise’s development were.
When the Senators acquired Duchene in the fall following the team’s Eastern Conference final run, the team was on the downswing. The depth and talent took a significant hit and the underlying shot and goal metrics were abysmal. Instead of recognizing that the final was a high water mark, Dorion doubled down and bet on a deeply flawed roster. A season and a half later, Duchene was headed to Columbus at the 2019 trade deadline for what wound up being an inconsequential return featuring Lassi Thomson, Jonathan Davidsson and Vitaly Abramov.
Last summer, the general manager took a similar gamble on DeBrincat trading the seventh overall selection in the 2022 NHL Draft with the 39th overall selection and a 2024 third-round pick. The return represented a sizable opportunity cost, but it was a calculated gamble. Dorion bet on his young core that featured a number of young Americans and hoped that the two-time 40-goal scorer would integrate well, fall in love with this city and want to be part of this franchise’s push towards competitiveness.
It is disappointing for so many reasons.
With new ownership, a new arena and a locked-up young core, there are a lot of encouraging reasons to stay and be part of the next stage of this franchise’s development. Ottawa’s also a great place to live and raise a young family even if it doesn’t have a Chipotle.
It’s frustrating because when the Senators acquired DeBrincat and had one year to convince him to stay, the org did not put its best foot forward right away. Failing to address the blue line that same offseason helped submarine the team’s competitiveness early on and by November, all realistic chances of this team reaching the postseason were gone.
Perhaps a more competitive team that reached the postseason would have had a greater impact on DeBrincat’s decisions. Or, maybe it just did not matter. If he simply wants to return to the United States to be closer to his and his wife’s families, that is totally understandable and out of Ottawa’s control.
This situation puts Ottawa in a tough spot because it is going to be difficult to fetch the kind of value that the Senators originally gave up. The odds of bringing back a goalscorer of DeBrincat’s ilk are long. (And as an aside, depending on what happens with the Hockey Canada scandal fallout, just the loss of DeBrincat alone could force the team to take a step back. If players like Batherson or Formenton are implicated as being in the room and or among the five players who the London police believe could be charged with sexual assault, it would be a massive blow to the forward group that goes beyond the loss of DeBrincat.)
If there is a silver lining to yesterday’s news, DeBrincat’s list of preferred destinations will hopefully allow the Senators to leverage a sign-and-trade deal to maximize the potential return.
As I mentioned on Twitter, I have seen a lot of people emphatically stating that the Senators need to get NHL pieces back to help the team progress and reach the postseason. Obviously, it has been a frustrating number of years and I completely understand the sentiment and reasoning behind that push, but for me, progress does not have to be linear. The best deal does not have to be the one that puts the team’s best short-term interests ahead of everything. A preferred deal should be the most valuable one that creates and develops the best or longest window of contention. Case in point, the most celebrated trade the Senators ever made involved trading Alexei Yashin to the New York Islanders for the second overall pick, Zdeno Chara and Bill Muckalt accomplished this.
There are certain scenarios where the Senators can trade DeBrincat exclusively for some package of prospects and draft picks and reallocate the money owed to DeBrincat on other players. Obviously, it is easier to spend that money in theory than it is to actually convince players to sign in Ottawa than other destinations, but that does not mean that it cannot happen.
I would hate to see the Senators move DeBrincat for an NHL player or two who do not offer the team much in terms of control. It’s not strictly about quality or control, the Senators desperately need both here. The last thing the team should be trying to do is compound last year’s mistake by making another short-sighted one that shortchanges things further.
The Senators desperately need a win here, but how it plays out will be fascinating to watch unfold because we have absolutely no idea which direction Pierre Dorion will go in — which is complicated by the likelihood of his lame-duck status.
If Chabot and Chychrun play 60+ games this season the team is very likely to take a step forward this season regardless of the return on a DeBrincat trade.
I agree that the Sens should look for young assets in a DeBrincat trade with maximum ceiling and team control. The only "win now" DeBrincat trade that I see making sense would be if it solves the goaltending. Say DeBrincat for Saros (and whatever spare parts make that work).