For the second time in the past two weeks, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman has dropped a nugget of information regarding the Ottawa Senators during his second intermission segment.
Last week Friedman brought up the fact that the Senators were “looking to bolster their hockey operations (department). Hearing there could be some hires there soon.”
When many of us heard the word “bolster” the prevailing assumption was that the team was finally looking to invest in the front office and fill numerous positions to improve the quality and efficiency of the work being done by management. As small as it may have seemed, it felt like another bubble of optimism.
Unfortunately, we eventually found out that this bolstering was necessitated by the resignation and departure of assistant general manager Peter MacTavish.
During tonight’s broadcast of the Stanley Cup Final, Friedman struck another chord regarding the future of winger Connor Brown which probably will not go over well in the nation’s capital.
Per Friedman:
“Okay, so I’m hearing, the last time that Connor Brown was a free agent, he signed a deal one year before he became an unrestricted free agent. This time, the word is that he’s planning on just seeing if he wants to test the market. A feeling that he might test the market. That’s going to make a choice for Ottawa. And the choice is: do they let it play out or decide to make a move? I think that’s going to be in the Senators’ court because I think he’s going to want to see what the market is going to be.”
Brown will enter the 2022-23 season with one year left on the three-year, $10.8 million deal ($3.6 million AAV) that he signed in 2020.
Over the past three years, Brown has solidified himself as a reliable two-way forward who works hard every night.
Based on past production and age, it would not be a shock to see Brown envision his next contract as being somewhere in the realm of what former Leafs teammate Zack Hyman received from Edmonton.
Brown is currently 28 years old and when he hits unrestricted free agency next summer, he will be the same age that Hyman was when he inked his seven-year, $38.5 million deal with the Edmonton Oilers. Before signing with the Oilers, Hyman’s career-high in goals during a season was 21. His career regular season-high in points? 41. If you’re wondering how Brown shakes out, his career-high in goals was also 21 and his best points total was 43.
As much as I like Connor Brown’s work ethic and performance, if he is looking to test the market and try and land a massive deal in free agency, this may be good news for Ottawa. I say that in the sense that this would force the team’s hand and make it explore trades for a player who’s about to enter their 30’s and the diminishing returns part of their career.
It’s one thing if the player is elite and even some declining performance still leaves them as a very good player, but if everything breaks right, Connor Brown’s a good third-line player on a good team. He’s a nice piece to have, but he’s not the kind of player that you want to risk overpaying and overextending yourself on when his offensive production just isn’t that significant.
In exploring the trade market for Brown, it helps the organization avoid some risks that it has often taken on with players before. This team has a penchant for falling in love with its depth players.
In saying that however, the caveat in moving Brown is that the Senators have to win whatever trade they make. That may sound easy, but this management group — which has become significantly smaller in recent weeks — has often erred when making player valuations and identifying good trade targets.
On the surface, Brown certainly feels like the kind of player that the organization could attach a prospect or two to so that it can land a more talented alternative who can play up the lineup. Conversely, if the organization trades Brown for prospects or futures, that can be fine too. There is certainly value in keeping the pipeline brimming with draft picks and prospects. Whether the Senators use that capital to select and develop players to help this club or use that currency to make separate deals of their own, teams can never have enough of this scarce resource.
Making a decision on Brown’s future this summer was always going to be inevitable. If the circumstances were different and the Senators had a confident belief that they would be able to make a push for the postseason in 2022-23, maybe they would have held onto him. Given the current situation, even in light of how the Boston Bruins are poised to take a step back, expecting this group to take a massive step forward and push for a playoff spot next season may be too ambitious. At least not without filling a number of holes on the roster.
Losing Brown may be a point of consternation given this team’s struggles to retain veteran players as they hit unrestricted free agency. I can certainly empathize with that position, but given this team’s position and its future outlook, I believe this is a situation where Brown’s remaining productive years simply do not overlap well with Ottawa’s. The risk of overpaying him and being stuck with a bad contract three years down the road is very real. And although the Senators do not have any generational talents on the roster who will command McDavid or Matthews money, there is value in preserving some cap flexibility down the road when the team is expected to be good. (Read: I’m making the assumption here that the team will spend more down the road to supplement the group as the results improve.)
Creates a window of opportunity for Colin white if they keep him and maybe solves the centreman log jam? Maybe they should bring Nick Paul back?
Full agree with your analysis, Graeme. This team has messed up trades and free agent signings more often than it has succeeded. If Brown was a finisher, say like Corey Perry, whole different picture. When an energy guy gets older, he drops in value rapidly without that.