There’s nothing like waking up to a Matthew Tkachuk rumour to get the interwebs stirring.
Former NHLer and Sportsnet analyst Shane O’Brien appeared on Sirius XM’s ‘The Power Play’ with Steve Kouleas yesterday and dropped this bomb while discussing how Vladimir Tarasenko’s tenure in St. Louis is nearing an end.
“I think his time is up. I’ve got a little rumour I guess, Kouls,” offered O’Brien. “I’ve got Tarasenko going to Calgary for Tkachuk. I heard Tkachuk wants out of Calgary.”
Near the 47 second mark of the clip, O’Brien would add, “I’m hearing more on the end that he wants to play in St. Louis, his hometown.”
Without divulging the source, O’Brien acknowledges that it’s a rumour and it does not mean that it can come to fruition. Ignoring the part expressing a desire to play in his hometown, there has not been any confirmation that Tkachuk even wants to leave Calgary.
Given the circumstances surrounding his situation, it would certainly make sense if he was looking for a change of scenery.
Tkachuk will enter the last year of the three-year bridge deal that he signed in September of 2019. The 2021-22 campaign will be his sixth professional season, meaning the Flames only have two seasons of team control left before Tkachuk is eligible for unrestricted free agency.
Armed with a roster that is competitive to flirt with postseason contention, but not really talented enough to sustain success, the Flames are kind of stuck in a position of mediocrity. They are too good to reap the benefits of a high draft pick, but not good enough to realistically vie for a Stanley Cup anytime soon. The Flames’ farm system is not well-regarded and their most skilled player, Johnny Gaudreau, has one season left on his deal before he’s eligible for unrestricted free agency. Add it all up and there are a lot of factors at play to suggest that the best direction for the Flames to go in is a rebuild. And if that is the decision Flames management arrives at, would Tkachuk really want to stick around and endure that?
With those aforementioned two years left of team control, if Tkachuk’s hesitant to re-sign, his availability in trade could really help jumpstart the Flames’ rebuild.
Here in Ottawa, the Senators are starting to finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. Management has stockpiled a lot of prospect depth and quality at seemingly every position. With this accumulation of assets, there is a recognition that not every prospect is going to play for the organization. Some are going to be used to acquire better players should they become available and if Tkachuk’s available, fans in this city will understandably envision him playing alongside his younger brother.
After the last five years, it is hard not to blame the fan base’s cynicism when it comes to ownership’s ability to ink players to contracts once their restricted free agent years are over. As much as I hate the fear-mongering that is permeated on the interwebs when it comes to Ottawa and their contract negotiations, the Matthew Tkachuk bridge deal may foreshadow where the Senators could be positioned in negotiations with Brady down the road.
Ideally, the Senators can convince Brady to sign a long-term deal that takes him through the rest of his 20’s, but it feels like a bridge deal is going to be a much more realistic alternative.
Given cap projections and a flat cap system remaining in place for the foreseeable future, bridge deals for players coming off entry-level deals should remain en vogue. Any young player with confidence in their ability to sustain their performance and cash-in down the road while they are in their mid-to-late 20’s will do so. It creates so much leverage for the player, they can either handpick where they want to go in free agency or have a team overextend itself trying to keep the player in the fold.
Unlike the Flames, what the Senators have going for them is that they are (and should continue to be) in a totally different phase of their franchise’s development curve. Whereas the Flames should strongly be considering rebuild, Ottawa is on that upwards trajectory with playoff and Stanley Cup aspirations.
That alone should help make it easier to convince Brady to stay, but Matthew’s presence would assuredly help too.
Even with a down season this year, Matthew’s an exceptional player. The wrinkle for the Senators is that projecting forward, left-wing is the deepest and most talented position on the roster and the opportunity cost to acquire Tkachuk would be significant. It will take a sizable package of players, prospects and draft picks to acquire Tkachuk and any team that acquires him will also be under immense pressure to sign him to a contract extension. There’s no certainty that he would embrace the move to Ottawa.
That is not to say that Matthew Tkachuk would not represent an upgrade on some of the players already here. Right now, his on-ice impact is certainly more valuable than Tim Stützle, Alex Formenton or maybe even his brother’s. Matthew could play his off-side and help the Senators to address the right-wing, but it does not really address one of the team’s bigger needs.
After Pierre Dorion indicated in his end of the year media availability that the team will develop Tim Stützle on the wing, Ottawa’s long-term projections at the centre position are a bit unknown. Shane Pinto and maybe even a Ridly Greig will factor in, but where do they safely project? Both players have extremely safe floors, but does either have the potential to develop into a second-line centre?
On the blue line, similar questions exist. All of the eggs are placed firmly in the University of North Dakota basket. Jake Sanderson and Jacob Bernard-Docker are more safe floor prospects, but what are their respective ceilings and how much of those ceilings can they fulfill?
As much as I like the player, acquiring Tkachuk to play his off-wing or improve an already strong position without any guarantee he stays beyond the next two years is incredibly risky. It may be more advantageous for the Senators to continue to build patiently or use whatever prospect depth they have accrued to address other positions of need.
Develop the prospects. Enough with the impatience. This is not the off-season the Sens should start burning through their prospect capital. We need to see what these guys can do in a normal regular season to get a proper assessment of the team.