Patrick Roy Reportedly Seen in Kanata, Dump and Chase, Tkachuk and the Fans and More...
Remember when this city spent the last few days analyzing captain Brady Tkachuk’s post-game comments cracking back on fans who chanted for head coach D.J. Smith’s dismissal during Saturday night’s game against the Lightning?
Well, for a minute there, it got interesting.
In the wake of the public displays from players like Tkachuk and Claude Giroux supporting their head coach, RDS’ Norman Flynn reported last night on ‘Le 5 à 7’ that a source allegedly saw Patrick Roy eating at a restaurant in Kanata. RDS posted the clip of the segment on ‘X’.
The report kicked off a whirlwind of speculation proving once again that there is never a dull moment when you are a fan of the Ottawa Senators.
Roy resigned from his general manager and head coaching responsibilities with the QMJHL’s Quebec Remparts just one week after his club won the Memorial Cup this past summer. The prevailing belief was that Roy did so to pursue NHL opportunities.
An opportunity that Ottawa may provide. With the Senators off to a 4-6-0 start that includes a 1-5 record in their last six games, D.J. Smith is under fire for another slow start.
Ironically, the Senators and Roy have some history. The Hall of Fame goaltender interviewed for the Senators’ head coaching position in 2019 - which was ultimately awarded to Smith.
As I wrote on social media last night, if he were in town interviewing for a job that is still Smith’s, it would be careless to brazenly go out in public in the area adjacent to the Senators’ barn. As others have pointed out, it would be a smudge on the start of the Andlauer and Staios era that has, to this point, exhibited nothing but professionalism and class.
Another explanation for Roy’s presence is that he may have simply been interviewing for the vacant general manager’s role. Alternatively, he may not have been in Kanata at all.
Le Journal de Quebec’s Kevin Dube wrote that contrary to rumours, Patrick Roy was not in a Kanata restaurant on Tuesday. Using things like “a reliable source” and “supporting evidence”, the paper was quickly able to confirm that Roy was in Quebec City where he had “commitments”.
It is good news for the Senators’ optics. The last thing this new regime needs is to be painted in a negative light. On the other hand, what a terrible day for sources within the Kanata restaurant industry.
Dump and Chase
Stathletes’ Meghan Chayka dropped some interesting tweets on ‘X’ examining how frequently teams are dumping and chasing the puck through the early goings of the 2023-24 season.
Here is a more zoomed-in look at the visual.
Through 10 games, the Senators had the third-highest rate of dumped-in zone entries at five-on-five in the league. When asked by a follower if she had the means to provide more details regarding the data, Chayka offered the following.
Chayka would go on to provide further context clarifying that Stathletes uses mechanisms to vet their data to ensure that this dump-in data is not skewed by events like line changes.
The data corresponds with the eye test. The Senators are comfortable turning possession of the puck over to the opposition and they are struggling to recover it or create turnovers within the offensive zone.
The defensive play of the forwards was an obvious weakness of the club entering the offseason and it never really improved. The absence of Ridly Greig, who had been exceptional this season before his injury, and Shane Pinto, one of the team’s best defensive forwards last season, have been glaring. Their two biggest offseason additions up front created some offensive depth but were never renowned for their two-way play.
The Senators are not effectively playing that style and it should raise important questions.
Why isn’t it working? Is it simply a product of play design and tactics? Is it personnel?
Creating successful zone entries with possession is important, but teams can have success playing an effective dump-and-chase style. Carolina, in particular, comes to mind — although, their expected goal rate is underwhelming early on. It could be the product of a small sample size, but Colorado looks to have found a nice balance of when to dump the puck in and how to successfully retrieve it.
If Ottawa cannot play this style effectively, something needs to change. It’s never easy to change the players, especially at this juncture of the season, so that puts the onus on the coaching staff to improve or change the tactics because what’s happening on the ice is not working. And, if you can’t or stubbornly won’t, well, you might put your job at risk if it is not already.
Playing Around with NHL EDGE
The NHL launched the website NHL.com/EDGE in late October which gives public access to the data the league collects through its development of puck and player tracking technology.
Considering where Major League Baseball started and has progressed to with its Baseball Savant data, hockey has a long way to go but it has to start somewhere. EDGE represents the first opportunity to get this data.
It is not without its shortcomings.
The available stats are pretty rudimentary and there is not a ton of context. In time, the statistical noise will be separated from the substance and new stat categories will hopefully emerge and prove useful.
Another problem is that the league will only let the public know if a player or team exceeds the 50th percentile in a particular stat. If you have one of the lowest recorded average skating speeds, the Players Association and NHL have ensured that it will be difficult to find and compare with your peers. This was purposefully done to protect the interests of the players and guard them against the possibility of ridicule.
There is some interesting data available at the team level.
At even strength, the Senators finished the 2022-23 season ranking in the 81st percentile and 76th percentile in shots on goal and goals scored respectively from high-danger locations.
This year, the Senators rank below the 50th percentile in shots on goal and the 51st percentile in goal. That second rating would be lower if not for the team’s shooting percentage. Thanks to the team scoring on every fourth high-danger shot, the team’s high-danger shooting percentage ranks in the 84th percentile.
The bulk of the Senators’ shots this season are coming from the mid-range.
The Senators have generated a ton of production from long-range thanks to the play of their defencemen.
Eventually, there will probably be some regression here at some point, but the Senators need to do a better job of sustaining offensive zone pressure and opening up opportunities in high-danger areas.
Brady Tkachuk and the Fans…
I had just one last thought on Brady Tkachuk speaking out after Saturday’s loss to Tampa to chastize the fans who booed.
Everyone is frustrated and everyone cares. No one should blame him for trying to deflect attention away from his coach, but I think it is important to emphasize that no one has turned “your back on the guys out there.”
The fans have and will continue to support the players. During the rebuild, this unadulterated faith in these young players was all we had. Nobody trusted Eugene Melnyk, his cronies who served as the organization’s board of directors, or the revolving door of C-level executives who entered and exited the Canadian Tire Centre. Even throughout the missteps and embarrassments that this franchise endured in recent years, there was always optimism because, at the end of the day, this franchise still had its young core.
The hope was that things would eventually get better once the self-destructive dregs of the Melnyk era who ran this organization eventually left and were replaced by competent professionals. Competent employees who could insulate this young core and allow the players to reach another level.
No one turned their backs on the players. Hell, the young core is the only reason why widespread apathy never set in. You’re the reason we’re all still here. The chants and the booing? They’re signs that fans want to see this core improve and not waste another year of its prime while the organization spins its tires.
It’s a sign that people care.
Other News and Notes:
After yesterday’s practice, D.J. Smith told reporters that it could be weeks before Ridly Greig and Mark Kastelic will be available to play because of their respective injuries.
Jakob Chychrun hit his leg on a post during a drill towards the end of practice yesterday. He told reporters that he was fine and will play tonight in Toronto. Artem Zub will take the warmup skate before a decision is made on his availability. D.J. Smith indicated that seven defencemen will dress during warmups.
If you have not already, I have made a couple of podcast appearances recently. You can check out my appearance on Sportsnet’s PDOCast with Dimitri Filipovic here. I also appeared on the Senstennial Podcast which you watch below: