Monday notes: Dzingel Skating, Brannstrom Benched, Duclair Drops Bomb
Dzingel Returns
For the first time since the Ottawa Senators reacquired him in trade with the Carolina Hurricanes on February 13th, Ryan Dzingel skated with his teammates yesterday. Thanks to Canada’s Covid-19 protocols, Dzingel has essentially spent the last 14 days isolated in quarantine at the Brookstreet Hotel.
There is no specific timetable for the left winger’s return to the lineup, but D.J. Smith has expressed his desire to have Dzingel practice and improve his conditioning before joining the lineup.
The acquisition of Dzingel was an intriguing one simply because the left wing has been a position of strength for the Senators this season. Brady Tkachuk leads the league in shots on goal and hits providing the stability at the top of the lineup. Tim Stützle has turned heads with his blend of dynamic skating, youthful enthusiasm and highlight reel goals. Admittedly, there are genuine concerns with the Senators giving up as much (and more) when Stützle is on the ice. These concerns probably help fuel the organization’s reluctance to give the German forward reps down the middle. In watching Stützle, it certainly seems like his confidence has grown exponentially. He is no longer passively deferring to teammates like most young players breaking into the league do. He’s spending more time carrying the puck and using his vision and skill to create and it’s very noticeable. Finally, Nick Paul’s start to the 2020-21 season is one of the best stories of the Senators’ season.
So where does Dzingel fit in?
If the intent is to insulate Dzingel early until he is comfortable, he will likely break in on the team’s fourth line while playing on the second power play unit. With fewer than 20 games on the schedule to build his trade value by the April 12th deadline, there should come a time when he moves up the lineup. In order to facilitate that move, one of Stützle or Paul will have to slide to the centre position.
The arm or shoulder injury that Derek Stepan sustained in February should open the door for that transition. Artem Anisimov has slowed down and has proven himself to be an ineffective two-way player over the past few seasons. Although he has posted some reasonable goal totals, even scoring 15 goals in 49 games last season, his production has always relied on a high shooting percentage. Anisimov was playing at a sub-replacement level last season before his shooting percentage cratered in 2021, but he’s not a viable option this season and by playing him, he’s not accruing any kind of trade value. Now that we’re over 40-percent through this 56-game campaign, the time has come to really lean on the younger depth players and find out how good these players can be.
On social media, I have pointed out how it may be prudent for the organization to start utilizing Stützle down the middle whenever the Senators are getting blown out in games. Like in Saturday’s matinee against the Flames when they were down 6-2, the third period could have been the perfect opportunity to let Stützle get reps down the middle.
Much has been made about the fact that he hasn’t played his natural centre position in a few years, but if you cannot entrust your young cornerstone piece to play garbage-time minutes in a blowout, when should he get that opportunity to learn? I’m certainly not suggesting that Stützle play centre for the remainder of the season without being held accountable for his mental and physical errors, but eventually, there’s going to come a time when he will have to line up down the middle for the Senators to give him reps and determine whether he’s a viable long-term solution for the first-line centre position. If there is a hesitancy to utilize him now, when is there going to be a better time to learn than to get reps in a blowout where there is no pressure on the player or the team to have success? As early as next season, the importance of the team’s success and Stützle’s development is only going to amplify.
Filip Chlapik Waived and Given Unconditional Release
I neglected to include this in my first post on this site, but Filip Chlapik was waived and given his unconditional release by the Senators on February 26th.
It is an unceremonious end to the Senators’ career of the team’s second-round pick from the 2015 NHL Draft. The once highly thought of prospect had an impressive junior career with the Charlottetown Islanders of the QMJHL before some decent seasons in Belleville.
The struggle with Chlapik is that it appeared he got caught between being too skilled, but not having enough elements that are characteristic of the prototypical fourth line player that the Senators liked. Despite some decent underlying metrics that lent themselves to the idea that Chlapik might be an underappreciated depth player, he never was embraced by his coaches.
In looking at some of Corey Sznajder’s ‘Tracking Project’ work, one of the things that stood out was Chlapik’s overreliance on dumping the puck in.
Chlapik may have benefited from playing less conservatively. For young players, dumping the puck in frequently is often a function of the player simply trying to mitigate mistakes and earn the trust of his coaching staff. One of my favourite stories involved Chris Neil cutting through the neutral zone, beating a defenceman and ringing a shot off the post. When he got back to the bench, Jacques Martin reportedly tapped him on the back and said some variation of, “Good job. Now never do that again.”
Chlapik’s offensive contributions at the NHL level have been modest. In 57 career games, he has five goals and 11 points to his credit, but I certainly think there’s enough talent there with the right linemates to post double-digit goal totals and 20-plus points in a season. Even without the offensive upside however, the 23-year old winger has proven to historically to help suppress shots in the defensive end.
Hopefully Chlapik lands on his feet somewhere in North America, but losing Chlapik certainly is not going to seismically alter the future success of the Ottawa Senators. I think there’s enough under the hood here to at least warrant an extended look for some team. Fourth line players (and by extension, depth defencemen) are certainly a dime a dozen, but sometimes good depth players simply need playing time and coaching staff to believe in them. Nick Paul cleared waivers in February of 2019 and now he is entrenched on Ottawa’s third line. Conversely, it’s easy to understand from the player’s perspective why he would want out. It cannot be fun to sit in the Brookstreet Hotel collecting an AHL salary while watching redundant veteran players like Alex Galchenyuk, Micheal Haley, Cedric Paquette and Michael Peca get the majority of the starts. Being a European player who also has to endure the complications of dealing with the pandemic lockdown, I would imagine that there would be some level of homesickness too.
Although losing players like Rudolfs Balcers or Chlapik may not resonate with some fans, losing controllable depth assets who may have some unproven upside is frustrating for others. It is a reflection of the organization’s obvious preference for what they believe a fourth liner should be. Coupled between this and the fact that the organization keeps flipping draft picks to acquire veteran depth pieces, losing controllable depth pieces helps underscore how inefficient some of management’s roster decisions are. (As an aside, why organizations continue to trade or sign depth pieces every offseason when countless quality alternatives are waived every September when teams cut down their rosters is beyond me.)
Brannstrom Benched
Speaking of young players and opportunities, Erik Brannstrom will reportedly be scratched for tonight’s game against the Flames. Veteran Braydon Coburn will be drawing into his place in the lineup based on the most recent line rushes at Senators practice.
With the recent benchings of Brannstrom and Christian Wolanin, it is obvious that D.J. Smith and the coaching staff are uncomfortable with the defensive contributions of these puck-moving defencemen. There is absolutely something to be said about the defensive miscues exhibited by both of these players. By every publicly available defensive metric, neither player looks strong.
What is interesting however, is what their respective benchings also say about the comfort level of the coaching staff to continually dress their veteran ‘defensive defencemen’.
Erik Gudbranson is ensconced within the lineup and is simply never held accountable for his defensive miscues.
If the eye test is not convincing, the numbers speak for themselves.
According to Evolving-Hockey.com’s ‘Goals Above Replacement’ and ‘Wins Above Replacement’ metrics, Gudbranson is the least valuable player on the Ottawa Senators. Remember Ron Hainsey? Remember how no one batted an eyelash when the Senators elected to move on from the veteran defenceman? The 2019-20 version of Ron Hainsey is outplaying the 2020-21 version of Erik Gudbranson.
Using HockeyViz.com’s visual data, it is easy to see the difference between the Senators’ defensive play when Gudbranson is on and off the ice.
Braydon Coburn, who draws into the place of Brannstrom, hasn’t fared much better.
Considering the rebuild and the importance in getting your young prospects consistent playing time without having to worry about to come out of the lineup for their mistakes, there’s going to have to come a time when their interests are held above those of the one-year stopgap solutions
Logan Brown Getting Reps
Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch attended this morning’s skate and followed up with D.J. Smith in regards to the plan with Logan Brown.
With the injury to Stepan, there was some consideration given to the idea that Brown could be recalled and placed in Ottawa’s lineup, but an injury after two nondescript games in Belleville squashed that idea.
Giving up on Brown’s upside was a topic of conversation in my last piece, but it is good to hear that the organization plans on giving Brown a few AHL games before recalling him to Ottawa. It is imperative for the organization to give him a legitimate opportunity to play at the NHL level with decent offensive players. From Garrioch’s tweet, it sounds like that opportunity will come.
Duclair Fitting in with Florida, Inadvertently Dumps on Ottawa?
Ian Mendes recently wrote a piece detailing Anthony Duclair’s adjustment and fit with Florida for The Athletic.
From detailing his decision to represent himself in free agency last summer to how he reconnected with general manager Bill Zito in Sunrise, it was an interesting read.
What was especially interesting was one bombshell that he dropped referring to his time in Ottawa.
“I don’t want to go into too much detail about Ottawa, but the way I’m being treated here is unbelievable. To have the owner and general manager support whatever I want to do off the ice and to have that in the back of my mind is obviously refreshing,” Duclair said. “It makes me want to play harder for this organization, so I can stay here long term. Especially for a Black hockey player, there is nothing better than knowing the mindset of your bosses. It’s amazing.”
As one of the most outspoken players following the murder of George Floyd, the Senators were one of last two NHL teams to release a statement on ‘Black Lives Matter’. Nothing came from the official social media channels of the organization however, the only statement emanated from the charitable arm of the organization at the time, the Sens Foundation.
Duclair was a 2020 NHL All-Star representative and again, he was one of the most outspoken players who helped form the Hockey Diversity Alliance. Rather than use their platform to help shed light on Duclair’s message or Mark Borowiecki’s social activism, the organization remained silent. Shortly thereafter, the Senators’ social media personality resigned from his position.
If what Duclair states is true and ownership and management refused or vowed to remain silent rather than support his initiatives, that’s one hell of an indictment on the individuals running this franchise. In a multicultural hub like Ottawa where so many fans have grown disenfranchised in recent years, this franchise should be doing everything it can to market and connect with as many nontraditional prospective fans as it can.
Silence is not going to help.