LeBrun: Tarasenko on Edmonton's Radar

Speaking on TSN’s ‘Insider Trading’ segment ahead of last night’s broadcast, Pierre LeBrun discussed the Edmonton Oilers’ desire to add another top-six forward to their mix.

Of interest was the inclusion of one Ottawa Senator, Vladimir Tarasenko.

“The idea is to upgrade there on the second line with Leon Draisaitl. We mentioned Jake Guentzel as a real splashy name last week. I think he remains on their list, but who knows if he’s even available? Jordan Eberle, (Chris Johnston) mentioned his name last week. That name continues to grow within the front office of the Oilers — the idea of a reunion with him if Seattle falls out of it. He’s a pending UFA. Vladimir Tarasenko, there’s a fresh name. He changed agents for the fourth time in three years last week. He’s got a full no-trade, but I believe that he would waive for a contender like Edmonton. Tarasenko, I believe, is on the radar for Edmonton, as well.”

It could be suggested that Tarasenko’s decision to hire another representative in Craig Oster of Newport Sports may reflect a desire to remain in Ottawa. As the agent for Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris among others, Oster has a history of working out extensions with the organization. Those contracts were all negotiated with the previous regime, however, and although I don’t doubt that these two parties could come to terms on an agreement, it makes the most sense for the Senators to move on.

Tarasenko’s 13 goals and 33 points in 45 games look fine on the surface and will surely generate interest based on what appears to be a relatively thin supply of reputable talents on the market. Anachronistic front offices may even look at his +13 plus/minus rating and arrive at the idea that it’s an impressive number considering how porous the Senators’ team defence was through the first 25-30 games of the season.

A deeper dive shows how poor defensively he has been.

HockeyViz’s data reveals that Tarasenko’s been a fine offensive contributor, but his isolated defensive impact has been atrocious.

When he is on the ice, the Senators have spent a lot of time in their end giving up shots and quality scoring chances — driving a relatively high expected goal outcome (read: all that red in the defensive zone visual above is bad.)

NaturalStatTrick backs these findings up.

According to its data, when Tarasenko is on the ice at five-on-five this season, the Senators average 67.09 shots allowed per 60 (CA/60, 2nd worst amongst regulars and the worst rate amongst the forwards), 34.80 shots on goal allowed per 60 (SA/60), 3.35 expected goals allowed per 60 (xGA/60, worst amongst regulars), and 35.95 scoring chances allowed per 60 (SCA/60, worst amongst regulars).

Given the circumstances, he is incredibly fortunate to have the plus/minus rating that he has — especially since Ottawa’s goaltenders have produced the league’s worst save percentage (.898) at five-on-five.

At this point, you may be wondering how adversely affected his numbers were by the team’s terrible play through the bulk of the season. It is a reasonable thing to question. Context for statistics is important and perhaps, like many of his teammates, he has benefited from the coaching change. Maybe even enough to merit the consideration that the Senators would be better off keeping him around for the remainder of the season or even signing him to an extension.

Since Jacques Martin took over on December 19th, Tarasenko’s underlying defensive numbers have not improved.

In the 21 games since the change, the Senators have generated 46.35 percent of the shots (CF%, worst mark amongst forwards on the team), 45.39 percent of the shots on goal (SF%, second-worst mark amongst forwards), and 41.84 percent of the expected goals (xGF%, second-worst mark amongst forwards).

Despite getting greatly outshot and outchanced when he has been on the ice, the Senators have generated more of the actual goals. His 2.28 points per 60 rate since Martin took over is the second-highest rate on the team behind Brady Tkachuk. His 1.14 goals per 60 rate is the fourth-highest amongst regulars during this stretch. Both rates are buoyed by Tarasenko’s unsustainable shooting percentage of 20.83 and an on-ice team shooting percentage of 12.32 when he has been out there.

With such luck-driven rates and a recognition of his defensive limitations, for as good as Tarasenko has been in that room and off the ice, it makes a ton of sense for the Senators to sell.

What could the Senators expect to receive?

Tarasenko is in an interesting position because the protection of his full no-movement clause allows him to essentially handpick where he wants to land. If the winger has specific designs on where he wants to land, it has the potential to limit the Senators’ prospective return. A limited market should theoretically limit the return.

He has all the power.

If Tarasenko is less particular about which contender he wants to play for, the larger market would benefit the Senators. Absorbing most of Tarasenko’s cap hit could also help boost the return if it affords the acquiring team more flexibility to make additional moves at the deadline.

In Edmonton’s case, the opportunity to play alongside Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl would be tough to beat. Tarasenko’s already shown he is comfortable playing in Canada, so that should not be an issue either.

Using CapFriendly’s trade machine, if the Senators dealt Tarasenko to the Oilers at the March 8th trade deadline and picked up half his salary, his cap hit for the remainder of the year would be $546,875. The trade machine presently lists the Oilers as having $519,116 of cap space available on deadline day, which would put them over the cap by $27,759.

If the Senators are going to make a deal with Edmonton, they will likely have to take some kind of money back. If it is bad money, it could help boost the return even more, but I doubt the Senators would have the appetite to even consider reuniting with Cody Ceci - even if it is just for another year. It would make more sense to see Connor Brown or Matthias Janmark be thrown in.

The Oilers’ pipeline of prospects is not well-regarded. In his latest organizational prospect rankings, The Athletics’ Scott Wheeler rated the Oilers 25th overall.

His characterization of it was not particularly flattering.

“The Edmonton Oilers’ pool is beginning to bear the brunt of the team’s push to contend. They’ve made just one draft’s worth of picks in the last two drafts and of the seven selections they did make, only two were in the draft’s first four rounds, the least of any team in the league during that span. One of those two picks, Reid Schaefer, has already been traded as well. Add in the prospects they do have not taking the kind of steps you would have hoped for and it’s one of the weaker groups in the league.

There are still some decent young players coming — players who may be able to contribute during this window — but their pool isn’t going to produce top-of-the-lineup types. With Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway set to age out and/or graduate to the NHL, their ranking could continue to slide if they don’t hang onto their first- and second-round picks in 2024 as well (they’ve already dealt their picks in Rounds 3 and 4). I considered ranking them a little lower this year, even.”

If the Senators wanted a prospect who was close to NHL-ready, they could lean toward a Broberg or a Holloway. Ottawa’s depth on left defence and at the left wing positions make that unlikely, however. Thanks to the presence of Brady Tkachuk, Mathieu Joseph and potentially Ridly Greig, there is not a lot of room. On the back end, the Senators already have Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Erik Brannstrom and Jakob Chychrun as natural left-shot defencemen.

As 22-year-old players who have yet to establish themselves as regulars at the NHL level, acquiring either would be a pretty conservative bet. They have been identified as safe floor players and knowing that, Senators management may prefer to accrue draft picks instead.

The Oilers own their first-round picks in each of the next three drafts while possessing their second-round picks in 2024 and 2026. I would have previously had a hard time believing the Senators could fetch a first-round pick for an impending unrestricted free agent in Tarasenko, but after the Jets aggressively pushed for Sean Monahan to desperately fill a need, who knows what the market will produce?

Other News and Notes:

• In a sad piece of news, Jason Spezza announced through the Penguins on Monday that his brother Matthew had tragically passed away due to an accidental overdose over the weekend. Matthew played two seasons in the OHL, including three games for the 67s during the 2004-05 campaign. He will forever be remembered for his social media presence and support during the Senators’ 2007 Cup Final run.

• Former head coach D.J. Smith joined Jim Hiller’s staff in Los Angeles as an assistant. Considering the Kings’ struggles of late and Smith’s reputation for how well-liked he was by his players, his addition should not come as a surprise. He is best suited to be a good cop assistant.

• Jake Sanderson is set to miss the Senators’ game Saturday against the Maple Leafs. With Sanderson out, here is how the lines shook out from this morning’s practice:

  • Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson

  • Joseph-Stützle-Giroux

  • Greig-Pinto-Tarasenko

  • Kubalik-Kastelic-Kelly (MacEwen extra)

  • Chabot-Zub

  • Chychrun-Bernard-Docker

  • Brannstrom-Hamonic